I Need Some 'Splainin'

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MakeMe$$$$
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I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

OK...

This could fall into the category of selling low to avoid much lower. LOL

First, I'm not in a panic but as we just gone through a crazy week of stuff it makes me think about exiting holdings until things bottom out. I'm looking to make a strategic move to preserve capital to use when things settle out. With that in mind...

I'm not seeing any significant events to put a brake on the current slide. Given the rate of things I'm thinking it is time to capitulate on some holdings. Now that I'm trading ETFs I have more tools to use in setting sell and buy situations. I'm thinking that I'm going to set some rather tight stop limit orders on a few holdings that are in the worst jeopardy with plans to get back in them after they bottom out.

I'm not seeing a real bounce. I think we might see a dead cat bounce Tuesday or Wednesday. I just don't see Monday being good at all.
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
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evilanne
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by evilanne »

With Trump's concern with Market Returns, his position could change on a dime. Wondering what his capitulation point could be :?

crondanet5
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by crondanet5 »

ETFs trade like stocks. That means your money, unlike inside the TSP Program, has to settle before you invest it again. That takes 3 days (one of those days is the day you make the sell transaction). So if the market continues down Monday and you sell, and the market goes up Tuesday, you cannot buy back in. That means if there is a bounce you miss the bottom and end up repurchasing less shares than you had before the market drop. Talk to your brokerage representative to be sure what their rules of engagement are. I hope your decision either to sell or hold works to your benefit.

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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

crondanet5 wrote:ETFs trade like stocks. That means your money, unlike inside the TSP Program, has to settle before you invest it again. That takes 3 days ...
My experience is that the settling period only applies to cash withdrawals. I can sell but can't withdraw cash until the cash has settled. However, cash from sales immediately is shown in my "Cash Available for Trade" balance information.

Now on the luck of timing...that remains to be seen. LOL
Don
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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

I suppose the major point of my post is to consider how bad things could be. I'm not seeing any reason for Monday to be a reversal day. There could be way too many agitating factors that us mere mortal investors won't be able to find a way through it all.

My gut feeling is that Monday will be a continuation of that last 3 trading days and it just might be time to bail out to preserve resources. Or course, that would also mean being ready for any true bottom to form and act accordingly.
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
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TopNotch
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by TopNotch »

My investor friend's advice to me was if you have some gains that you want to protect, then sell some of those winners. Then buy some of the stocks/ETFs that you wanted to buy, but were overpriced, once they start rebounding.

I picked up FTEC @50.85 cost basis in early February, was up nearly 9%, now back to just about even. Might buy more FTEC if it starts rebounding.
David Tepper - "There is a time to make money and a time to not lose money."

Warren Buffett - "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

XAMOTOMAX
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

SP500 slid all the way down to the 200 day moving average and the lows of the early Feb "flash crash". Monday will be telling. Sentiment is in the dumpster right now. If this support doesn't hold, look out below. I'm going to let that happen before I sell to G though. If it bounces Monday that will be a good sign IMO.

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cswift01
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by cswift01 »

TopNotch wrote:My investor friend's advice to me was if you have some gains that you want to protect, then sell some of those winners. Then buy some of the stocks/ETFs that you wanted to buy, but were overpriced, once they start rebounding.

I picked up FTEC @50.85 cost basis in early February, was up nearly 9%, now back to just about even. Might buy more FTEC if it starts rebounding.
Personally, I'm trying to go towards banks and eschewing from tech. The whole P/E ratio is overdone for tech (it's way above 30, check FTEC) and banks are barely 14 (FNCL). Obviously do what you want, but in my previous post, I think we'll see another hard hit with tech soon enough.

Of course that's just me...

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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

I think the last week or so are challenging on several fronts. Tech appears, to me, to be in a major correction and the Facebook/social media fiasco is kicking it harder.

Turmoil over trading policy compounds the challenges. That could take a long time to settle out.

I've decided it is time to get out of Tech (I was a bit too heavy in it anyway.) and wait for a bottom. I've got a couple other holdings that I'm getting out of too. I put in some reasonably tight top limit orders to do this.

I've got a couple other holdings where I tightened up my trail stops. They seem to be holding their own given everything going on but are still suffering a little bit.

I plan on putting some buy limit orders on some Tech holdings based on them breaking above current support levels. As an example, ARKW (a personal favorite of mine) is on a tight leash since it is has broken below the 40 day resistance level (51.25) and poised to break below the support line (50.24). I've opted to put a tight stop limit of 50/48. I'm fine if it gets triggered in that band but will follow up with a buy limit once things settle down.

Hey...its a plan. LOL
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
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mindofmush
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by mindofmush »

cswift01 wrote:
TopNotch wrote:My investor friend's advice to me was if you have some gains that you want to protect, then sell some of those winners. Then buy some of the stocks/ETFs that you wanted to buy, but were overpriced, once they start rebounding.

I picked up FTEC @50.85 cost basis in early February, was up nearly 9%, now back to just about even. Might buy more FTEC if it starts rebounding.
Personally, I'm trying to go towards banks and eschewing from tech. The whole P/E ratio is overdone for tech (it's way above 30, check FTEC) and banks are barely 14 (FNCL). Obviously do what you want, but in my previous post, I think we'll see another hard hit with tech soon enough.

Of course that's just me...
Some one else has already suggested that you disregard the super high Amazon outlier PE > 350 which would bring tech down closer to a PE of 19, or 20. Facebook will drag overall tech lower before this is sorted, so bailing on tech funds is a good idea. Financial stocks and funds should do better with the Fed rate hike. Just remember that PE is only one tool in the toolbox, not the entire toolbox.

This volatility is great for PUT options; go all those Trump-haters screaming trade war and scaring all those wimpy mutual fund managers into selling out their clients, more premium for me. :mrgreen:
mo meng, mo ching (which loosely means: no money, no life)

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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

Well...

I feel good that I had some exit plans in place in case things went south but I also saw Sunday pre-market data showing some improvement. I was up at the bell and converted all of my stop-limit orders back to trailing stop-loss and feel good about that.

Early news indicates China might be listening so the easing in trade tension isn't hurting either. I'm hoping that Trumps shotgun statement a couple weeks ago has been cleaned up and becoming more focused. I'm still waiting to see how we deal with NAFTA members and the EU.

Now, let's see how the afternoon develops.
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.

Carmen909
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by Carmen909 »

What stuck out to me in some of your posts was that you were arguing that things would continue to get worse based on "gut feeling." To me, that's an emotional response. If you have a fear that things are going to get worse, maybe you are taking on too much risk.

My favorite economist (Thaler) says that all too often people jump out too soon into safe investments and then wait too long to jump back into the market. Doing so causes you to lose out on gains and locks you into losses. For people who are worried about losses in this current market, he advises to continue retirement contributions into stocks/funds but maybe decrease the amount put into stocks/funds and set aside more in cash.

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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

Carmen909 wrote:What stuck out to me in some of your posts was that you were arguing that things would continue to get worse based on "gut feeling." To me, that's an emotional response. If you have a fear that things are going to get worse, maybe you are taking on too much risk.

My favorite economist (Thaler) says that all too often people jump out too soon into safe investments and then wait too long to jump back into the market. Doing so causes you to lose out on gains and locks you into losses. For people who are worried about losses in this current market, he advises to continue retirement contributions into stocks/funds but maybe decrease the amount put into stocks/funds and set aside more in cash.
Some good points! That is something I need to keep in mind and it is appreciated.

To your point, after the morning set up I did lock in a couple losses! :twisted:

My Sunday set up was very defensive in a couple leveraged holdings and this morning they jumped up nicely. I re-calibrated my stop-loss with what I thought was a reasonably loose limit thinking I was smart...NOPE! The 2 holdings got stopped out and then rebounded. SHEESH! While I loss less than my original "red line", I still suffered a loss. A crummy lesson but something to log into my education.

BTW...I play a lot of poker and what you pointed out is what we call a "leak" in my game. Time to work on it some more.

Thanks for your thoughts!
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.

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cswift01
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Re: I Need Some 'Splainin'

Post by cswift01 »

mindofmush wrote:
cswift01 wrote:
TopNotch wrote:My investor friend's advice to me was if you have some gains that you want to protect, then sell some of those winners. Then buy some of the stocks/ETFs that you wanted to buy, but were overpriced, once they start rebounding.

I picked up FTEC @50.85 cost basis in early February, was up nearly 9%, now back to just about even. Might buy more FTEC if it starts rebounding.
Personally, I'm trying to go towards banks and eschewing from tech. The whole P/E ratio is overdone for tech (it's way above 30, check FTEC) and banks are barely 14 (FNCL). Obviously do what you want, but in my previous post, I think we'll see another hard hit with tech soon enough.

Of course that's just me...
Some one else has already suggested that you disregard the super high Amazon outlier PE > 350 which would bring tech down closer to a PE of 19, or 20. Facebook will drag overall tech lower before this is sorted, so bailing on tech funds is a good idea. Financial stocks and funds should do better with the Fed rate hike. Just remember that PE is only one tool in the toolbox, not the entire toolbox.

This volatility is great for PUT options; go all those Trump-haters screaming trade war and scaring all those wimpy mutual fund managers into selling out their clients, more premium for me. :mrgreen:
All of FANG are overbought, but there are many more. Check the top holdings of ftec and then their p/e.

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