Is this really working?

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Fergdogg
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Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:39 am

Is this really working?

Post by Fergdogg »

I stumbled upon this site last night and am curious (skeptical) about these returns from these strategies. Are people here actually making 30-40% over a period of a year ('18 withstanding) or a few? Or are people here fantasizing about something they are not actually doing in real life?

I don't mean any disrespect, it's just that I know people who adjust their TSP based on what they think will happen, but to base an entire strategy/website off past data and see these kind of returns makes me wonder why I've never heard of this site before!

I'm willing to pay the $20/yr for the updates to tell me when to IFT, it just seems way to good to be true.

crondanet5
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by crondanet5 »

Yes they are. Everyone thinks they have the best plan to grow their TSP Account beyond simply by contributions. This Game is a level playing field where we all started with $100,000. Go to Leader Board. Select Leader by Account Balance and see what Gamers have done with that $100,000.. And pay attention to the Leaders YTD as you can see what they are doing with IFTs. Good luck. Hope you grow a million.

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Billionair
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by Billionair »

I started just last summer, and although I did lose for 2018 (october losses), currently back in positive territory and have learned and grown a lot. Dudes like Cron usually are on the top 20, as well as TSPGuru and his army of minions. I follow my own path, but still end up making money.

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-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

crondanet5
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by crondanet5 »

So Billionair, I see you have achieved a 7% return on your Fantasy Account so far this year. Isn't that supposed to be the annual goal to achieve in an investment account? Should you stop right there and spend the rest of the year in the G Fund?




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We have three lives: our awake life, asleep life, and retirement life. Few prepare for their retirement life.

Chulke
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Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Is this really working?

Post by Chulke »

I started following one of the strategies posted here 3 years ago...and have had really good success with it until last year I tried a little something different with not so good results so this year and from here on out I'm going to stick with my original strategy, but even with last years not so stellar year I'm still averaging close to 10% per year and hope to improve that as the years go on! and my goal is 15% per year average....but for sure these strategies are pretty accurate most of the time.


it's the law of averages...use it to your advantage!



Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by Tomanyiron »

crondanet5 wrote:Should you stop right there and spend the rest of the year in the G Fund?.
We could ask you the same thing Cron. I think you are trying to get smart players to stop competing. :lol:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Billionair
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by Billionair »

crondanet5 wrote:So Billionair, I see you have achieved a 7% return on your Fantasy Account so far this year. Isn't that supposed to be the annual goal to achieve in an investment account? Should you stop right there and spend the rest of the year in the G Fund?
Yes, many people in the private sector told me that 7% was unattainable, and that 10% is not going to happen. I could sit here in the G, but yall know I like to roll them dice. I would like to end 2019 at 20% to make up for the -8% I had in 2018. My strat this year, is a lot more F on the dips, and only buying into good price drop. I made a few mistakes moving into higher crests, and learned to watch the charts better. I also incorporate the pull/push as well.

As for mistakes of 2019...should have stayed in S. But I was skeptical of any losses, because -1% in oct turned into -7% at the end of the week. But the market is returning to normal.



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ArrieS
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by ArrieS »

mkw52 has the highest account balance on this website at $328,883.76.

His yearly return is;
2010 +22.96%
2011 -1.10%
2012 +10.35%
2013 +35.26%
2014 +7.80%
2015 -3.55%
2016 +6.36%
2017 +15.09%
2019 +10.98%

For a total return of 256.37%.

Compared to the C funds total return of 308.98% for the same time period.

The people on this site seem to compared themselves against each other and the market for the year. But they fail to compare themselves over multiple years.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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jlozano042
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by jlozano042 »

Hmmm interesting. Not to put words/letters in your mouth/fingers but are you (ArrieS) saying that if mkw52 just stayed 100% in the "C" fund for those same years he would be +308.98 vice +256.37?

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ArrieS
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by ArrieS »

jlozano042 wrote:Hmmm interesting. Not to put words/letters in your mouth/fingers but are you (ArrieS) saying that if mkw52 just stayed 100% in the "C" fund for those same years he would be +308.98 vice +256.37?
I don't need to say anything. The numbers speak for themselves.

That being said, I don't know how they are investing. They could just be investing to reduce volatility to sleep well at night which may reduce their returns.

I'm just speaking up because often people say 'look at our great returns' or 'look at the huge balances.' But fail to ask the simple question of how did we do in the long run against the market.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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jlozano042
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by jlozano042 »

Rog, I hear ya. Thanks for that analysis.

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rcozby
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by rcozby »

ArrieS wrote:mkw52 has the highest account balance on this website at $328,883.76.

His yearly return is;
2010 +22.96%
2011 -1.10%
2012 +10.35%
2013 +35.26%
2014 +7.80%
2015 -3.55%
2016 +6.36%
2017 +15.09%
2019 +10.98%

For a total return of 256.37%.

Compared to the C funds total return of 308.98% for the same time period.
Huh? You ignored 2018 and the numbers don't add up.

Let's look at it this way:

S&P 500 started 2010 at 1133 and ended yesterday at 2724. That's a gain of 140.4%.

mkw52 started 2010 at 139362 and ended yesterday at 328884. That's a gain of 136%. Most of that difference actually occurred in 2018, when mkw52 lost 7.49% vs. S&P 500 down 5.2%.

Thus, not much of a difference. But to your point, it's hard to beat the market over the long term, even for the best of us.

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ArrieS
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by ArrieS »

rcozby wrote:
Huh? You ignored 2018 and the numbers don't add up.
I didn't ignore it. I failed to see that the TSP center isn't populating numbers for 2018.

http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?u=595

I just highlighted and copied the numbers in to excel and didn't look to see if all the years were there. I just assumed they were.
rcozby wrote: S&P 500 started 2010 at 1133 and ended yesterday at 2724. That's a gain of 140.4%

mkw52 started 2010 at 139362 and ended yesterday at 328884. That's a gain of 136%. Most of that difference actually occurred in 2018, when mkw52 lost 7.49% vs. S&P 500 down 5.2%.
My mistake, in my haste I didn't check my formulas in Excel.

I'll recheck everything and look for the years that are missing Table on the bottom left.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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ArrieS
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by ArrieS »

Okay, here are the correct numbers. I went to the actual TSP fund price.
The C Fund on January 4, 2010 (That was the first trading day of 2010) was $13.4303. February 04, 2019 it was $39.1365. That's a return of 194%.

https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... index.html
mkw52 started 2010 at 139362 and ended yesterday at 328884. That's a gain of 136%.
Yep, trailed by 58%. Had he sat in the C Fund he'd have $406,107.15.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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TSP Jedi
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Re: Is this really working?

Post by TSP Jedi »

the Calc has only been out since 2017 tho right?

Locked

Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".