Trump's Tweets
Moderator: Aitrus
Trump's Tweets
How are we supposed to manage our funds prudently when these random tweets send the markets up or down drastically? I don't know what direction I should move to. Move to safety or stay in the market? With only 2 moves per month we cannot react as quickly as these tweets influence the markets. Can anyone make some sense of all this? Thinking now of moving to safety but I just did the opposite yesterday so I only have one more move.
Re: Trump's tweets
Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade
Re: Trump's tweets
Suggestions:ronh227 wrote:How are we supposed to manage our funds prudently when these random tweets send the markets up or down drastically? I don't know what direction I should move to. Move to safety or stay in the market? With only 2 moves per month we cannot react as quickly as these tweets influence the markets. Can anyone make some sense of all this? Thinking now of moving to safety but I just did the opposite yesterday so I only have one more move.
1. Do not let "clutter" (i.e. from old man tweets loaded with impotent threats) cause you to knee-jerk deviate from your predetermined strategy. Empirically, most of us lose percentage point gains exactly due to these off the cuff, panic-stricken moves.
2. To mitigate these worries long term, vote accordingly in 2020.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi
If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray
― Mahatma Gandhi
If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray
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- Posts: 121
- Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm
Re: Trump's tweets
Dow at 27,000 massive returns after elected, but resist. Got it
Re: Trump's tweets
Ignore the headlines and stick to your plan. Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"
There will always be daily noise in the markets, whether it's geopolitical news, corporate earnings, interest rate decisions, economic news, etc.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"
There will always be daily noise in the markets, whether it's geopolitical news, corporate earnings, interest rate decisions, economic news, etc.
Re: Trump's tweets
I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.
IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.
http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?
"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."
Re: Trump's tweets
I agree that the VIX is lagging, but it gives a long-term perspective. And I don't think long-term investors should be concerned if prices are more volatile than normal for a few days/weeks. No matter how you measure it, current volatility isn't close to what it was in Feb/Mar 2018, Dec 2018, Aug. 2015, Aug. 2011, etc....let alone 2008 or 2002. And most people who jump in and out of stocks during 1-2 month periods of volatility end up worse off.userque wrote:I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.
IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.
http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?
"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
Another way of looking at it is in terms of daily price swings. I don't think the S&P 500 has had a 2% daily loss this year (on a closing basis). Those happen multiple times in periods of truly heightened volatility.
Re: Trump's tweets
Thanks. I see your points.TSPKey wrote:I agree that the VIX is lagging, but it gives a long-term perspective. And I don't think long-term investors should be concerned if prices are more volatile than normal for a few days/weeks. No matter how you measure it, current volatility isn't close to what it was in Feb/Mar 2018, Dec 2018, Aug. 2015, Aug. 2011, etc....let alone 2008 or 2002. And most people who jump in and out of stocks during 1-2 month periods of volatility end up worse off.userque wrote:I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.
IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.
http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?
"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
Another way of looking at it is in terms of daily price swings. I don't think the S&P 500 has had a 2% daily loss this year (on a closing basis). Those happen multiple times in periods of truly heightened volatility.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."
Re: Trump's tweets
I just have been holding. Working out pretty well for me.
Re: Trump's tweets
I was wrong, nice thingcswift01 wrote:Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ef-exports
Note to trolls, I see you keep dinging me with odd comments. I will make a new account and continue enjoying this website. Too many great people here.
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- Posts: 311
- Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm
Re: Trump's tweets
The agreement was originally reached in June.cswift01 wrote:I was wrong, nice thingcswift01 wrote:Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ef-exports
Note to trolls, I see you keep dinging me with odd comments. I will make a new account and continue enjoying this website. Too many great people here.
US Produces over 12,000,000 metric tons of beef per year.
This deal is for 35,000. Fact.
These Cons are really trying to pull the wool over Americans eyes when it comes to Trumps complete failure as a negotiator.
Re: Trump's tweets
Stick to your plan and ignore the tweets, the best investors ignore the noise and look at the data.
I follow a monthly seasonal strategy from gclapper (slightly modified). Its moves can be found by searching for strategy number #25727 on http://www.tspcalc.com
Re: Trump's tweets
That's pretty much been the pattern for awhile now; especially when the markets have been affected by the bad tweets:
Real bad tweet upsets everyone, followed by;
De minimis (or outright fake) good news-tweet to appease the situationally unaware.
See the pattern?
bad, psuedo good, bad, psuedo good, ..., etc.
The previous, most recent bs tweet was something about China pinky-promising to buy more agriculture.
Like clockwork, it followed a negative tweet regarding the China trade negotiations.
Real bad tweet upsets everyone, followed by;
De minimis (or outright fake) good news-tweet to appease the situationally unaware.
See the pattern?
bad, psuedo good, bad, psuedo good, ..., etc.
The previous, most recent bs tweet was something about China pinky-promising to buy more agriculture.
Like clockwork, it followed a negative tweet regarding the China trade negotiations.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."
Re: Trump's tweets
yup, i call that the executive's family enrichment cycle. dont need to be a data scientist to spot that trend.userque wrote:That's pretty much been the pattern for awhile now; especially when the markets have been affected by the bad tweets:
Real bad tweet upsets everyone, followed by;
De minimis (or outright fake) good news-tweet to appease the situationally unaware.
See the pattern?
bad, psuedo good, bad, psuedo good, ..., etc.
The previous, most recent bs tweet was something about China pinky-promising to buy more agriculture.
Like clockwork, it followed a negative tweet regarding the China trade negotiations.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi
If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray
― Mahatma Gandhi
If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray
Re: Trump's tweets
I think the air comes out of the bubble, we have a nice 2009 style decline, we ride it back up, and we all make a little money.
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