Trump's Tweets

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ronh227
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:54 am

Trump's Tweets

Post by ronh227 »

How are we supposed to manage our funds prudently when these random tweets send the markets up or down drastically? I don't know what direction I should move to. Move to safety or stay in the market? With only 2 moves per month we cannot react as quickly as these tweets influence the markets. Can anyone make some sense of all this? Thinking now of moving to safety but I just did the opposite yesterday so I only have one more move.

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cswift01
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by cswift01 »

Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade

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bloobs
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by bloobs »

ronh227 wrote:How are we supposed to manage our funds prudently when these random tweets send the markets up or down drastically? I don't know what direction I should move to. Move to safety or stay in the market? With only 2 moves per month we cannot react as quickly as these tweets influence the markets. Can anyone make some sense of all this? Thinking now of moving to safety but I just did the opposite yesterday so I only have one more move.
Suggestions:

1. Do not let "clutter" (i.e. from old man tweets loaded with impotent threats) cause you to knee-jerk deviate from your predetermined strategy. Empirically, most of us lose percentage point gains exactly due to these off the cuff, panic-stricken moves.

2. To mitigate these worries long term, vote accordingly in 2020.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

Optimus187
Posts: 121
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by Optimus187 »

Dow at 27,000 massive returns after elected, but resist. Got it

TSPKey
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by TSPKey »

Ignore the headlines and stick to your plan. Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"

There will always be daily noise in the markets, whether it's geopolitical news, corporate earnings, interest rate decisions, economic news, etc.

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userque
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by userque »

TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.

Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.

IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.

http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?

"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

TSPKey
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by TSPKey »

userque wrote:
TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.

Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.

IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.

http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?

"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
I agree that the VIX is lagging, but it gives a long-term perspective. And I don't think long-term investors should be concerned if prices are more volatile than normal for a few days/weeks. No matter how you measure it, current volatility isn't close to what it was in Feb/Mar 2018, Dec 2018, Aug. 2015, Aug. 2011, etc....let alone 2008 or 2002. And most people who jump in and out of stocks during 1-2 month periods of volatility end up worse off.

Another way of looking at it is in terms of daily price swings. I don't think the S&P 500 has had a 2% daily loss this year (on a closing basis). Those happen multiple times in periods of truly heightened volatility.

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userque
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by userque »

TSPKey wrote:
userque wrote:
TSPKey wrote:... Contrary to what many are saying, the market isn't volatile right now by any historical standard. For proof, go to bigcharts.com and type in VIX (volatility index) for the symbol. Look at a long-term chart.
Choose "Advanced Chart"
For Time choose "All Data" and for frequency choose "Monthly"...
I get what you're saying, but VIX and current volatility are not necessarily the same. VIX is designed to predict some future "volatility." "Volatility" as defined for a specific purpose.

Volatility as defined by a layperson and Webster's can easily be seen by looking at a plain chart of the market one is interested in. One can clearly see that the recent movements have been volatile when compared to most days.

IOW, VIX is lagging, imo.

http://sensibleinvestments.blogspot.com ... cator.html
VIX: Coincident or Leading Indicator ?...Or Is It a Lagging Indicator ?

"...It seems pretty clear to me the VIX might be a coincident fear indicator or more likely a lagging indicator. In response the sharp and volatile moves to the downside demand for puts (downside protection goes) up pulling up the implied volatility of the options which translates into a higher vix. At that point one would hardly need to look at the level of the vix to know that fear is rampant in the markets. ..."
I agree that the VIX is lagging, but it gives a long-term perspective. And I don't think long-term investors should be concerned if prices are more volatile than normal for a few days/weeks. No matter how you measure it, current volatility isn't close to what it was in Feb/Mar 2018, Dec 2018, Aug. 2015, Aug. 2011, etc....let alone 2008 or 2002. And most people who jump in and out of stocks during 1-2 month periods of volatility end up worse off.

Another way of looking at it is in terms of daily price swings. I don't think the S&P 500 has had a 2% daily loss this year (on a closing basis). Those happen multiple times in periods of truly heightened volatility.
Thanks. I see your points.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

PhilJohn
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Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by PhilJohn »

I just have been holding. Working out pretty well for me.

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cswift01
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Re: Trump's tweets

Post by cswift01 »

cswift01 wrote:Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade
I was wrong, nice thing

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ef-exports

Note to trolls, I see you keep dinging me with odd comments. I will make a new account and continue enjoying this website. Too many great people here.

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by tspwizard1 »

cswift01 wrote:
cswift01 wrote:Careful, more volatility might be coming https://seekingalpha.com/news/3485970-t ... t-eu-trade
I was wrong, nice thing

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ef-exports

Note to trolls, I see you keep dinging me with odd comments. I will make a new account and continue enjoying this website. Too many great people here.
The agreement was originally reached in June.

US Produces over 12,000,000 metric tons of beef per year.

This deal is for 35,000. Fact.

These Cons are really trying to pull the wool over Americans eyes when it comes to Trumps complete failure as a negotiator.

wdd09
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:29 pm

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by wdd09 »

Stick to your plan and ignore the tweets, the best investors ignore the noise and look at the data.
I follow a monthly seasonal strategy from gclapper (slightly modified). Its moves can be found by searching for strategy number #25727 on http://www.tspcalc.com

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userque
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Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 5:43 pm

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by userque »

That's pretty much been the pattern for awhile now; especially when the markets have been affected by the bad tweets:

Real bad tweet upsets everyone, followed by;

De minimis (or outright fake) good news-tweet to appease the situationally unaware.

See the pattern?

bad, psuedo good, bad, psuedo good, ..., etc.

The previous, most recent bs tweet was something about China pinky-promising to buy more agriculture.

Like clockwork, it followed a negative tweet regarding the China trade negotiations.

:mrgreen:
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

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bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by bloobs »

userque wrote:That's pretty much been the pattern for awhile now; especially when the markets have been affected by the bad tweets:

Real bad tweet upsets everyone, followed by;

De minimis (or outright fake) good news-tweet to appease the situationally unaware.

See the pattern?

bad, psuedo good, bad, psuedo good, ..., etc.

The previous, most recent bs tweet was something about China pinky-promising to buy more agriculture.

Like clockwork, it followed a negative tweet regarding the China trade negotiations.

:mrgreen:
yup, i call that the executive's family enrichment cycle. dont need to be a data scientist to spot that trend.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

Scorpio70
Posts: 432
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:49 am

Re: Trump's tweets

Post by Scorpio70 »

I think the air comes out of the bubble, we have a nice 2009 style decline, we ride it back up, and we all make a little money.

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