S&P 100 Stocks Above 200 Day Average

[boltman]

Good day, all! I came across this gem last night while doing some research online. While the author references stockcharts.com, you can also find the indicator ($OEXA200R) at tradingview.com under the symbol (S1TH). Check out the results at the bottom of the article!

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... Update.php

[skiehawk11]

I use it all the time. Combine that with a simple stochastic strategy, you'll do very well. Very, very well.

[boltman]

Awesome, Skie! Thanks for sharing that! With our TSP accounts, we have to execute a trade by noon EST, so do you wait for confirmation in indicators until the end of the day and execute your trade in TSP the very next day?

[skiehawk11]

I wait for end of day.

However, I generally trade based on monthly which makes me basically move once a month at the last day of each month if I need to move.

[kjh176]

Thanks for this info. According to the article, the exit was signaled on 6/10, and using the provided rules, an entry signal was triggered on 7/08 when the weekly slow stoch lines went black over red. From 6/10 to 7/08, the SPX dropped and then came back, overall difference being close to 0% between the two dates.

There was a fairly substantial drop in the SPX (~4%) during this time period, however. If you used these rules to go short during the 'exit' time...and had some trailing stops set, you could have made some good bank.

As stated before, the current signals are showing an SPX buy on 7/08, and since then, the SPX is up 2.75%+. Not a bad move at all, not that the close has been triggered yet and we could see a big sell off. The author does not provide his trailing stop %...I wonder what he uses to exit if he does not use the exit date based off of the metrics.

Great stuff - and worth back/forward testing further...

[Painter]

Skie,

Can you give a more detailed answer on how you trade the indicator with a simple stochastic strategy? I used to follow this indicator when it was all monthly charts. I hadn't realized that he changed the strategy to use daily and weekly charts. I'm interested again.

[skiehawk11]

Painter,

Basically, if OXA200R is above 60 and moving upwards or sideways, I see that as the market being in a bullish trend.

I use 14,3 slow stoch to generate buy and sell signals. Slow stoch is a momentum indicator as well as a leading indicator. Basically I look for a buy if a crossover happens below 30 and a sell signal if a crossover happens above 80 and both lines are trending down. This is key because in a bullish market, both lines can remain above 80 for an extended amount of time.

[skiehawk11]

See the chart below. This is a pure $OEXA200R strategy. You can simply use the weekly EMA and/or use the slow stoch.

As shown below, this strategy is simple and it works pretty darn well.

[TSPKip]

Skie: I noted that the stochastics of the monthly SPX and the OEXa200R charts have identical numbers and have identical stockastic charts. The candles are definately different. Thus, using the above method with stochastic crossovers as the signal after the end of the month, I note a total gain over the past 4 years of 77.27% with the expected lag losses [~ 2 moves per year].



Also using the monthly chart moving average, and entering the next month after the end of the crossing month: I recognize a gain over the same 4 years of 45.28%.



I suspect that using a weekly chart will have less lag.

[boltman]

TSPKip: Have you compared results using different charting systems? I noticed that tradingview.com and stockcharts.com, for example, reflect slightly different data. Weekly RSI on tradingview.com for S1TH reflects 56.0478 at 11:45 AM EST today, while stockcharts.com RSI on $OEXA200R reads 55.34. Not sure which charting system is more accurate or why there are slight variances in the data. What are your thoughts?

Skie: I noted that the stochastics of the monthly SPX and the OEXa200R charts have identical numbers and have identical stockastic charts. The candles are definately different. Thus, using the above method with stochastic crossovers as the signal after the end of the month, I note a total gain over the past 4 years of 77.27% with the expected lag losses [~ 2 moves per year].



Also using the monthly chart moving average, and entering the next month after the end of the crossing month: I recognize a gain over the same 4 years of 45.28%.



I suspect that using a weekly chart will have less lag.

[TSPKip]

Boltman: I noted that tradingview has a built in 8 day offset which I had to move to equibrate with Skie's 8 day MA. There are several RSI formulations.

[boltman]

Thanks...I don't think the variations are so far off that it would impact trades significantly. Being that the author of the article uses stockcharts.com, I may just stick with that.

Boltman: I noted that tradingview has a built in 8 day offset which I had to move to equibrate with Skie's 8 day MA. There are several RSI formulations.

[kjh176]

Good day, all! I came across this gem last night while doing some research online. While the author references stockcharts.com, you can also find the indicator ($OEXA200R) at tradingview.com under the symbol (S1TH). Check out the results at the bottom of the article!

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... Update.php

It looks like the same site posts weekly updates as the indicators turn from buy to sell, and vice versa. I'm still trying to find how to find them when released, but I was able to track down the following follow-up articles by searching "OEXA200R" using the home search option...

Buy update on 07/09/13: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... Update.php

Continued buy signal on 07/13/13: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... Update.php

Since it's a weekly interpretation of the charts, you could do the work yourself for signals...but it's good to utilize this resource as a backup. After this week I would expect to find another "buy" update posted soon. I'll try and post updated links when I find them on this site.

[kjh176]

7/20 Update - Continued SPX buy:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... Update.php

[kjh176]

7/27 Update - Continued SPX buy:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... Update.php