Monday, August 23, 2010

General TSP Discussion.

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SgtWs

Monday, August 23, 2010

Post by SgtWs »

Last week was rough and I’m feeling a lot of stress, but have to let the trade play out. Here are some of the take-aways from last week:

1) F Fund is in a bubble – We know momentum continues to push the fund higher, we know it will eventually end badly, but we don’t have any idea when.

2) The CBO release a new report stating that our federal budget deficit for 2010 will exceed a mind boggling $1.3 trillion. This is the second largest shortfall in the past 65 years. So while Wall Street is aware the party is over, Washington keeps on partying like its 1999 with an orgy of spending.

3) The market got hammered over bad news that everyone knew was coming, but acted surprised anyways.

Now there seem to be two camps out there. The 1st camp says last week was the wheels starting to come off, a prelude to a coming drop because the economy continues to deteriorate. The 2nd camp says that last week was the impact of the economy hitting the bottom, and was normal indicators of bottoming out. I'm not sure which it is, but the bears have control right now, so the news will remain bad. The truth probably is somewhere in between. If we are at the bottom we will probably drag across it for a while. I fully expect unemployment to go above 10% soon. The political rhetoric continues to heat up as the fall election draws near.

So what's my short-term angle? It is relatively simple. The current set up shows we are still trading sideways in a well defined range of 1135 to 1060 on the S&P 500.

Image

The S&P 500 is currently at the lower end (bottom) of that range at 1171.69. I am a bit uneasy but will stay with the trade as long as we stay above the bottom of that line of support. A break down from there and I will probably take my losses as it would become too painful to hold on. All the other funds will move in relation to this. If the S&P 500 goes up, the S and I probably will too. If the S&P 500 goes down, they will follow.

Stuff I’m watching:

This article hits the overall idea pretty well……..
1) America Won the Cold War But Now Is Turning Into the USSR, Gerald Celente Says – I believe the title sums it up pretty well. We spend decades trying to defeat socialism, and we were gong the same direction all along. Soon the government will be running everything and taking care of everyone, unless we go bankrupt. All other communist states have or will, eventually, and America is no different. American CANNOT pay off all the debt it woes. It is literally impossible. If you think we can, let me hear you plan.

2) 401K selling – Workers withdrawing funds from retirement accounts, 401Ks in record numbers

In the wake of news about a spike in new applications for unemployment benefits comes another potentially troubling sign: A record number of workers made hardship withdrawals from their retirement accounts in the second quarter. What's more, the number of workers borrowing from their accounts reached a 10-year high.


This is concerning because this money will be spent and will not be available for future investments and retirement. This is a troubling sign.

3) Union Bailouts – I was hoping we were done with the bailouts. Union Pension Bailouts Are Coming

This just goes to prove how desperate our political leaders are to stay in power. Look, we are either a free market, or we are not. If we are not, then what are we? In a free market economy there are risks that have to be taken, and you can lose. But in our current environment you take even more risk and not worry about it because no one loses. Who is going pay? We all are, because this is exacerbating an already lethal problem, and is merely kicking the can down the road. If treasuries are in a bubble, then when they pop, more pension funds will be asking for another bailout because they are currently piling into treasuries at record rates.
I’ve got more stuff I will be looking at, but this is all for now.
Last edited by SgtWs on Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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peteruso
Posts: 113
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:29 pm

Bailouts

Post by peteruso »

Excellent post as usual Rodney. PBGC, Student Loans, Fannie and Freddie...one wonders how the bleeding will stop. Sad

JayJ
Posts: 300
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 6:47 am

actually I am sick to death of

Post by JayJ »

all this "socialism" crap. Unfortunately, the current administration is no damn different than the previous Cheney administration with GWB as a figurehead. They take care of the ultra-wealthy, big banks, big industry, and screw the middle class. Why don't you just admit you can't bear the thought of a half-black man as president and spare us the "socialism" crap.

Yes the national debt is horrible, but remember we had a projected budget surplus the last time a "socialist" was in office as president. It is the patriotic capitalist flag-waver that brought this debt on us by starting two wars against countries that did not and cannot hurt us, providing big tax breaks for the rich, and starting a new "socialist" prescription drug benefit program designed mainly to funnel federal tax $$$ to big pharma. That is where all the deficit came from and most of the debt.

Pres. Obama has failed to fix things because he is a lousy negotiator and back-room dealer who has kow-towed to the party whose leader Rush stated that their goal is to make Obama fail, regardless of what that means for the U.S.

I come here to get TSP and market info, and I don't want to see right-wing crap here.

Thanks.

crashdump

Post by crashdump »

The post obviously offers TSP and market info. I don't see any right-wing slant here.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

TSP King and store minders,

Post by crondanet5 »

please do not delete JayJ's comments. The issue of the Obama's administration's failure to correct the underlying issues facing America today, the continuation by Obama of a "non war" in the Middle East, and the possibility America may collapse due to federal fiscal mismanagement are too important to not allow these postings to stand. I remember seeing postings deleted from this web site in the past. Please let these stand so the issues can be discussed at the federal employee level, okay? And I would appreciate hearing from as many members as possible about what is wrong, what can be done, how can we as TSP participants get the TSP program running right so we can make money for our retirement. So dig in.

"You can only kick my front door in so many times before I will respond with deadly force."

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UwshUwerME
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:55 pm

Post by UwshUwerME »

JayJ, in my opinion, your remarks show how blind you are to the reality of the situation.

"Why don't you just admit you can't bear the thought of a half-black man as president". I recommend you delete this statement. I don't find any basis for inferring racism (though it seems to be a quick accusation these days). To me, it’s just name calling.

"They take care of the ultra-wealthy, big banks, big industry, and screw the middle class." To some extent I agree, however, it seems obvious that businesses in this country are over-burdened with taxes and regulations. When you screw businesses, you screw the middle class. After all, don’t our shares represent business?..So screw us too!

(If you keep JayJ’s conclusion, keep mine as well.)
Last edited by UwshUwerME on Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:42 am, edited 4 times in total.

SgtWs

Geee........

Post by SgtWs »

look, I wasn't trying to take any sides here or start a fire storm. I think both sides are equally to blame, with no one side doing much better than the other. If I upset you by pointing out what I see, I am sorry. But I think to deny that we are becoming more and more socialist is naive. That is a simple fact.

If we are going to do that, fine. But people have to understand that there is a cost, and it has never once worked for any country that tried it. NONE, ZIP, ZERO. Why would the U.S. be any different? That was my point.

At some point people, banks, pensions, etc….. will all have to take responsibility for decisions they make and not expect someone to bail them out. We seem to be at a point where we believe in capitalism as the way to go, until it fails. So with the tax payer waiting in the shadows to bail everyone out, where is the incentive to be prudent with your investments?

I guess what is most disturbing to me is that people do not seem to be able to accept that the great U.S.A. could actually fail. We seem to think we are superior, and different. I think it is naïve, foolish, and we have become self destructive with our thinking and actions. To say we are running a deficit is putting it mildly. There is no way we can pay off the deficits we are running. If there is, I want to hear that plan. But in the end, if history is any indicator, the problem will eventually fix itself……..and it will be ugly.

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flight23
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Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Post by flight23 »

Anyone who thinks either the Democrats or Republicans are actually working for the good of the people anymore is living in la-la land. Sure there are a few congressman who actually care but the system is so screwed up and complex now that nobody can get anything worthwhile done. It is only a matter of time before China & India become the new world superpowers.


Anyhow, back to preserving & creating wealth... From what I am seeing todays market is looking bad. Although we started up nearly 100 on the Dow we are now only up 25 and the downtrend came fast. I expect today to be a net negative for all 3 major indices.

If we break the 10100 support on the Dow I will be very worried because beyond that we could see a rapid drop to the early July low of 9600.
@GlobalCollapse on Twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/GlobalCollapse

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idiq
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Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 10:12 am

Post by idiq »

I hate to break the news but one cannot simply create socialism in a capitalist framework... You cannot simply reform the state into socialism. It just doesn't work like that. Study SPAIN, GERMANY, etc...

That being said, I agree that (from what I'm inferring here) there needs to be alternative to the two party system. Both parties serve the same class of people... Those at the top... Obama takes millions from Wall Street to finance his campaign... He can't simply stand-by and let bank after bank (ibank) fail...

Who passed GLB? Oh yeah! CLINTON! Am I blind to think the difference between parties are that minute? Bailout after bailout continues to create and play into the largest moral hazard of history... and will simply lead to more and more monetary mismanagement.

If you want to talk about creating wealth, look no further than the magic of banks... they create money out of thin air...

Suppose you deposit $100 into the bank, and the reserve requirement is 10%...
M1 = $100
And now suppose I want to borrow $90 in a loan from the bank... The bank pays me out in cash, or credits my account in the amount of that loan (while still meeting the reserve requirement).
So, I have $90 in pocket.
Your checking account shows $100.
And M1 is now $190.

Unfortunately, this can't go on forever... Government spending needs to be under control. Massive defense spending...

I CANNOT STAND however the people on MarketWatch clamoring for Government employees to give up some of their pay... You know what, I accepted lower pay as a trade off for STABILITY and QUALITY OF LIFE. You work on Wall St., you should know what risks are involved in the private industry. Don't get butthurt because your ibank laid you off, and now you're unemployed. You're dealt a bad hand, if you want to let the market clear it's time for you to wait until you can play that hand buckaroo... What's that? No free-market economics for lunch anymore? Because it doesn't benefit you?

SgtWs

Okay......

Post by SgtWs »

OK, since you guys are all getting all serious on me here........I'm breaking out the big guns.....

Image

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TSPking
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Post by TSPking »

flight23 wrote:...I expect today to be a net negative for all 3 major indices...


Nice prediction
TSPking

It's a gift...and a curse ~ Adrian Monk

visual
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:46 pm

Post by visual »

why don't we withdraw our tsp at 2.5% and shorting this market. this is a sick sick market.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

This has been a cute thread,

Post by crondanet5 »

but the problem is we have an administration that cannot get out of its own way and there was no other choice at the polls because we wanted to let the other party know they screwed up. Somehow Washington has got to realize that the issue is jobs, meaningful jobs, and until the good jobs appear, this economy is really in trouble. Just this morning on CNBC it was suggested we get another tax witholding cut to put money into the pockets of consumers.
And anyone who remembers the days after the Vietnam Conflict ended knows, when a conflict such as Iraq ends, the Army cuts its active duty force. And those troops are going to face a future without jobs waiting for them to go to. Think what this will mean to the unemployment figures. Our future is gray, and we need to make the right moves now. And that's why I asked these posts not be removed so we can begin to make things right because it is obvious the politicians are too busy taking their trips to address this critical issue and it will be up to us loyal public servants to figure out a solution. Hope we can do it.

blakeh02
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Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 3:25 pm

The problem is

Post by blakeh02 »

There are only 2 groups of people in the whole world. The elite(a couple hundred people) and then everyone else(6.5 bil) Carol Quigley(bill clinton's mentor) said that both parties have been infiltrated by the elite. Voting is just a horse and pony show for the masses. The media tells us who to vote for. Thats why they demonize dr. ron paul. They are scared to death of that man. But if you mess with there money making scheme you will inevitably get a bullet.

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jeffvan1
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:04 pm

Which half is Black ????

Post by jeffvan1 »

re: you can't bear the thought of a half-black man as president and spare us the "socialism" crap.


a Halfrican ?????

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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