Friday, September 9, 2010 - F Fund Breaking Down

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SgtWs

Friday, September 9, 2010 - F Fund Breaking Down

Post by SgtWs »

I had been watching for a break down in the F Fund, and it has slowly been unfolding over the last week. I was running a 9 day moving average over a 20 day, looking for a cross of the 9 day MA breaking down through the 20 day as confirmation of a changing trend. It just hit – see chart below……

Image

Also, Bespoke posted a short summary of the same break down in the trend. If your in the F Fund………..well……….I would sell.

A Breakdown in Fixed Income? Thursday, September 9, 2010 at 04:18PM

The recent pullback in the fixed income market is starting to put a dent in the long-term uptrend for the asset class. For the last six months, Treasuries and most corporates have traded upward in a very tight ordely channel. As shown below in the chart of the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), however, the bottom of the uptrend has been broken in recent days. Conversely, the 10-Year Treasury Yield broke above the top of its downtrend channel in recent days as well. If the pattern doesn't correct quickly, the technicals suggest that fixed income could be in store for some rough action going forward.


Image

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jeffvan1
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:04 pm

Post by jeffvan1 »

Yup. Yield went up today on 10 yr notes. While I generally advocate the Seasonal Strategy for long term gains, some of you more daring players might want to take a short term bias against the F-Fund. The right neckline is developing on a six month inverse S&P head and shoulders pattern. S&P 1127 confirms a bull mkt with upside to 1250.

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TSPking
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2007 7:02 am

Post by TSPking »

Even with conditions pointing towards an F Fund decline, we're not talking about a type of crash that the C, S or I Funds could experience are we? Is it true that the F Fund represents a relatively stable investment option that is not susceptible to significant swings?
TSPking

It's a gift...and a curse ~ Adrian Monk

SgtWs

Big Loss?

Post by SgtWs »

I don't think you will lose a ton of money over night, but if you leave your funds in there for a while you might. If we remain range bound and the market starts going down again next week, then it may find some more support and even climb higher. But if the market does breakout and starts moving higher than our resistance points then it will come down some more.

I would be afraid to predict a crash, so I will just say it is showing clear signs of weakness.

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bigredned
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:05 pm

Darn F-Fund...

Post by bigredned »

I got out while I still had something to move, LOL. Took a roughly .50% loss, but oh well... it happens. Meanwhile, I moved into C-Fund, which has looked good lately. Here's to hoping jeffvan's 1250 prediction comes true! :D

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jeffvan1
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Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:04 pm

Post by jeffvan1 »

Thanks, but it's not a prediction. An inverse head and shoulders pattern is a strong indicator of a bull mkt but its not a guarantee!!!

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bigredned
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Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:05 pm

Post by bigredned »

jeffvan1 wrote:Thanks, but it's not a prediction. An inverse head and shoulders pattern is a strong indicator of a bull mkt but its not a guarantee!!!


I won't be mad at you either way. :P

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jeffvan1
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Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:04 pm

Re: Friday, September 9, 2010 - F Fund Breaking Down

Post by jeffvan1 »

@ BigRed

head and shoulders inverse.jpg


As the chart shows it was an inverse head and shoulder (April / Sept) with a breakout to the upside once the right shoulder was formed. The upside potential is still 1250 but not without a short term correction along the way.
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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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