3/15/11 - Tough Tuesday Stuff

[TSPking]

Navy's Shipbuilding Forecast Gets Chilly Reception on Capitol Hill

Navy officials have sought to assure lawmakers at committee hearings over the past two weeks that the fleet, at last, is growing. With 286 ships today, the Navy's fleet is the smallest it has been in decades. The service has projected an expansion in the coming years - to 324 ships by 2021 - but the growth is predicated on so many hypotheticals that a betting man would give this plan long odds.
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ ... spx?ID=347

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CBO: Navy Underestimates Shipbuilding Plan By Nearly 20 Percent
By Jason Sherman, March 14, 2011

The Navy is underestimating the total cost of its 30-year shipbuilding plan by nearly 20 percent, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which estimates the average annual expenditures needed to execute the 2011-to-2040 shipbuilding plan will be $20.9 billion. The Navy's estimate is $17.8 billion.

Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons at the Congressional Budget Office, presented an analysis of the Navy's 2011-to-2040 shipbuilding plan to the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee on March 10. He estimated the total cost for the Navy's planned purchase of 276 ships and submarines during the three decades will be $569 billion. That sum is $93 billion more than the Navy's estimate of $476 billion. The CBO analysis compares figures using fiscal year 2010 dollars.

Over the three decades, the Navy plans to buy six aircraft carriers, a dozen Ohio-class replacement submarines, 44 attack subs, 50 new destroyers, 66 Littoral Combat Ships, 20 amphibious assault ships and 78 combat logistics and support ships, with a stated goal of a fleet that eventually numbers more than 320 ships.

"If the Navy receives the same amount of funding for ship construction in the next 30 years as it has over the past three decades -- an average of about $15 billion a year in 2010 dollars -- it will not be able to afford all of the purchases in the 2011 plan," the CBO analysis found.

The Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan assumes average annual outlays of $16 billion, or $476 billion over three decades -- a sum that accounts only for ship construction costs. The CBO analysis factors in other costs the Navy will face, including refueling nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and "various small pieces of equipment after the ships have been built or delivered" that will add "about $2 billion" to the Navy's average annual shipbuilding costs, the report states.

CBO, which used its own models and assumptions to derive its cost estimate, calculates new-ship construction would run as much as $19 billion annually -- or $569 billion over 30 years.

Aircraft refueling would require an additional $1.3 billion annually and the service each year would face $600 million in costs to outfit new ships with tools and equipment needed for operations but not included in ship construction, CBO estimates, pushing the total average annual cost for modernizing the fleet to $20.9 billion.

Because near-term costs for ships under contract are fairly well known, the CBO and Navy shipbuilding cost estimates are fairly close. "Looking further ahead, CBO and the Navy made different assumptions about the size and capabilities of future ships that led to different cost estimates," according to Lab's testimony.

"In addition, CBO incorporated the fact that costs for labor and material have traditionally grown much faster in the shipbuilding industry than in the economy as a whole, whereas the Navy does not appear to have accounted for the higher growth rates," he stated.
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DoD Flummoxed As 2013 Planning Begins

Pentagon budget officials are having an increasingly difficult time preparing internal future defense spending
plans as uncertainty continues to surround the U.S. Defense Department's 2011 appropriations bill.
http://ebird.osd.mil/ebfiles/e20110314808235.html

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CBO Examines Options for Cutting DoD

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5956712

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How much can we justify spending on nuclear weapons?

The earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan last week lead me to this question: Is it not time to talk realistically
about the $200 billion or more we plan to spend over the next decade on strategic nuclear weapons and their
land- and sea-based delivery systems?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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House To Weigh Plan Stalling DoD Budget For Three More Weeks
By Emelie Rutherford, March 14, 2011

The Pentagon's budget and new weapon-system contracts may remain frozen until April 8, as the House tomorrow is slated
to take up yet another temporary federal budget that will run for three weeks after the current stopgap measure expires
this Friday.

The Senate last week rejected two competing proposals for funding the government until the end of fiscal year 2011, on
Sept. 30, both of which contained full-blown defense appropriations bills for FY '11. Those complete defense bills would
have allowed stalled contracts for this fiscal year to begin and, notably, would have terminated the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter's alternate engine.

The new three-week continuing resolution, unveiled by the House Appropriations Committee (HAC) last Friday afternoon, calls
for largely maintaining the government at FY '10 levels. It does include $6.1 billion in funding rescissions and reductions,
program terminations, and earmarks, though none of those impact the Pentagon, according to a HAC summary.

President Barack Obama pledged support for the three-week CR at a press conference last Friday afternoon, acknowledging the
Republican-controlled House and Democratic- controlled Senate may not be able to settle on a full-year budget before the
current CR runs out on Friday. House Minority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said on the House floor last Friday that the chamber
could take up the CR tomorrow and it could be passed by the end of the week if the Senate acts "expeditiously."

House Republican leaders, who have pushed for more funding cuts than Senate Democrats, pledged last Friday to craft a full-year
budget. If Congress does not pass one and stops passing short-term CRs, the federal government could partially shut down.

"A government shutdown is not an option, period," HAC Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ala.) said.

Cantor, though, said: "We can't come to any agreement when the other side doesn't come forward with any offer."

Obama said he will work with congressional Republicans on spending reductions, but warned he could not support some
House-Republican-approved cuts to some domestic spending items.

As the Pentagon operates under CRs with FY '10 funding, contracts are stalled for weapons contracts slated to start in
FY '11, for purchases including DDG-51 destroyer equipment, a second Virginia-class submarine, Chinook helicopters, and
Humvee refurbishments.
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Whither Army: A Frontline View

http://www.dodbuzz.com/2011/03/14/whith ... iew/?wh=wh

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More Marines to fly carrier-variant JSFs

The portion of Marine aviators who will fly strike fighters from aircraft carriers will actually increase
when the F-35 enters the fleet, a senior defense official said March 11. When the F-35C...
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2011/03/n ... c-031411w/

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Now 'good enough' wins the defense contract

But analysts say the decision may have sent another message to the contracting community: The government isn't
necessarily seeking the most capable or "best value" equipment, but rather good-enough equipment with a lower
price tag.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/capital_b ... ltoafriend

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New GSA acquisition chief calls for government-contractor cooperation

Mindy Connolly aims to reduce the burden on industry and to develop better dialogue.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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Officials: Navy Wants LDUUV Fielded In 2017, Full Squadron In 2020
By Dan Taylor, March 14, 2011

The Navy has its eye on a large-diameter unmanned underwater vehicle that could be up to 45 feet long, 5 feet in diameter
and spend four months in the water, and the service hopes to start fielding it in 2017, Navy officials told industry last week.

The Navy wants an LDUUV that would leverage existing technologies, be reconfigurable, host a modular payload and energy
system and hopes to conduct the first fleet mission with it in 2017, with a full squadron to stand up in 2020, Cmdr. William
Smith, head of the undersea capabilities branch in the information dominance (N2/N6) directorate, told attendees of a March
10 industry day in Arlington, VA.

The vehicle could be as small as 20 feet in length or as large as 45 feet, with the diameter ranging from 38 to 60 inches.
It would be able to stay on station for a long time, starting at 30 days and eventually evolving to 120 days as the platform
is further developed and upgraded, Smith said. That is far beyond the 46 to 70 days called for in briefing slides presented
at an industry day held last month.

N2/N6 is currently looking at what the requirements are and who's going to operate the vehicle, and the directorate will be
in charge of developing the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance payload for the LDUUV.

Among the chief focuses as the Office of Naval Research, the program office and N2/N6 develop LDUUV is its survivability,
Smith said. It must be able to assess its status, avoid obstacles and assess threats to the vehicle.

"It's going to be a complex vehicle," he said. "We don't intend to lose it. . . . [We're] planning on getting a lot of use
out of them."

The LDUUV will have to operate for months at a time with no chance of anyone being able to fix it if something goes wrong,
so it must have backup systems in case of any damage.

"These may be the first vehicles we've built as far as UUVs that have redundancy built into them," Smith said.

The LDUUV will also be an open architecture platform, supporting rapid software upgrades as industry and the Navy develop
them. The service sees the platform as one that should be fielded quickly and gradually evolved over time.

Larry Schuette, director of innovation at ONR, said the Navy does not want to spend 15 years developing a platform, calling
the LDUUV a "think-small-and-get-it-out-there idea."

He said the chance to develop the LDUUV is "truly a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a game-changer out there," although
he noted the platform would not be a one-for-one replacement of any manned platform.

Dan Deitz, a program officer at ONR, said the Navy would update the BAA depending on the responses it gets back from industry,
which are due March 16. He did not have a date when ONR would release the BAA, but said it would probably happen sometime in
the summer.

He reiterated that the goal is to get technology that is readily available, get it into the sea for testing and upgrade it
along the way so the Navy can get it to the fleet quickly.

Deitz said ONR is looking for a leap ahead in energy systems, autonomy in the littorals and long-endurance technologies,
which will comprise the three sections in the upcoming BAA.

The energy system, for example, will need to provide 1,000 watt hours per liter, so the ONR is essentially asking industry
to safely put the equivalent of a "section of dynamite into this vehicle," noting that "that's not an easy task."

As far as autonomy, Deitz said the littorals present a number of environmental complexities, such as strong currents and
shallow waters. The program wants near-real-time communication, and it needs to be integrated into Navy tactical warfighting
to provide the most value to the fleet.

In order to achieve endurance goals, industry will have to reduce the necessary power for onboard systems, deliver an open
system, offer better reliability and reduce damaging marine growth on the vessel.
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Pentagon Blocks Websites to Free Bandwidth for Relief Ops

I'm told the Defense Department has blocked access to a wide range of commercial websites in order
to conserve bandwidth for relief operations in Japan.
http://whatsbrewin.nextgov.com/2011/03/ ... ef_ops.php

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Tricare target of Pentagon cuts as health care projected to reach $65B

In the face of two wars and serious budget constraints, the Pentagon says it needs to charge higher fees for Tricare coverage.
Among government workers, one group enjoys lifetime health benefits virtually unmatched in the United States: military retirees.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... ltoafriend

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Generation C

Federal human resources leaders are still trying to get their heads around how to manage four different generations
in the workplace. Are they ready for a fifth? A new report by Booz and Company suggests a fifth generation
-- Generation C -- is starting to enter the workplace.
http://wiredworkplace.nextgov.com/2011/ ... on_c_1.php

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Barbour: Obama's policies a 'threat' to economic future

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), taking another step toward an expected run for the 2012 presidential nomination,
road-tested his economic message on Monday in a speech in which he said President Obama's economic policies pose "an
even greater threat to our economic future."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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House ethics chair blasts predecessor on idling of lawyers in Waters probe

The Republican chairman of the House Ethics Committee has accused his Democratic predecessor of acting
without cause in forcing staff lawyers to take paid leave amid a probe of alleged misconduct by Rep. Maxine Waters.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Tax delinquency no impediment to contracts with IRS (You've Got to be Kidding)

As the revenue service reviews company delinquency claims, it continues to pay offending firms
millions under contracts, report finds.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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Trend or Fluke?

A new poll that shows independents warming to the role of government could signal an important shift
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0311/031511op.htm

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Lawmaker seeks 10 percent pay cut for Congress, White House (They Can't Agree to Pass a budget, so this doesn't stand a chance)

Bill would reduce salaries for lawmakers, the president and vice president, beginning in 2013.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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Budget impasse cements public's disapproval of Washington

Nearly two-thirds of all Americans say a government shutdown would be a "bad thing" for the country.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Short-term funding measure to prevent shutdown expected to pass

But lawmakers don't see end game in sight to resolve disputes over funding measure for rest of year.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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House to vote on stopgap government spending bill as parties battle over budget cuts

WASHINGTON - The House is set to vote Tuesday on a measure cutting $6 billion from the government's budget
as the price for keeping it open three more weeks while the White House and Republican lawmakers seek a
longer-term agreement on spending cuts.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Prominent GOP lawmakers oppose stopgap budget bills

A pair of prominent conservative Republicans declared their oppositon to the latest short-term budget bill
on Monday, increasing the uncertainty about Congress's ability to maintain support for stopgap measures to
avoid a government shutdown.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Budget Stalemate Leaves Chaos at Many Agencies

Uncertain of how much money Congress will provide them, many agencies are operating in uncertainty.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/us/15 ... l?emc=eta1

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Fed meets as risks widen; policymakers aim to guard against inflation while fostering growth

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday at a time of widening economic risks: higher oil and food prices;
unemployment near 9 percent; crises in the Middle East and Japan.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Bulls risk slipping on oil

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/ ... ng_on_oil/

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USPS, union reach tentative agreement

New contract would protect against layoffs, limit `excessing' and raise salaries by 3.5 percent.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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Miami-Dade Mayor Faces Special Vote to Keep Job

Mayor Carlos Alvarez of Miami-Dade County faces a recall vote that has tapped into the frustration
of an area still reeling from a sharply depressed housing market and high unemployment.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/us/15 ... l?emc=eta1

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Md. teachers, state employees protest budget cuts, pension changes

Maryland teachers and public employees staged a rally at the state capitol protesting the
governor's proposals for the state budget.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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N.R.A. Declines to Meet With Obama on Gun Policy

The Obama administration had called both the gun lobby and gun safety groups to meet to find common ground.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/us/po ... l?emc=eta1

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Obama Talks Afghanistan with U.S. Military Leaders

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5961674

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Petraeus to give upbeat view of Afghan fight

WASHINGTON - The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan is facing an impatient and frustrated Congress,
balancing his troops' solid progress in combat with worries about Kabul government corruption,...
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2011/03/a ... ht-031511/

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Poll: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Afghan war isn't worth fighting

Nearly two-thirds of Americans now say the war in Afghanistan is no longer worth fighting,
the highest proportion yet opposed to the conflict, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pol ... story.html

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Bomb kills 10 Iraqi troops as ethnic tensions rise

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/M ... 4-03-20-34

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Official: Saudi Troops Have Entered Bahrain

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5957024

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Bahrain 'arena' for Gulf forces and wider fears

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/M ... TE=DEFAULT

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Iranian spokesman says presence of Saudi, other foreign troops in Bahrain is 'unacceptable'

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman has denounced the deployment of a Saudi-led military force
to Bahrain to prop up the monarchy in the tiny island nation against widening demonstrations by the Shiite-led
opposition.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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Yemen deports 2 American, 2 British journalists

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/M ... 4-16-26-17

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Turkey Opposes NATO Libya Intervention: PM

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5957014

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U.S. eyes Libyan opposition, allies seek action

PARIS - Under pressure from allies and growing calls for military intervention in Libya, the Obama
administration was holding its first high-level talks with the Libyan opposition on Monday,...
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2011/03/a ... on-031411/

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Libyan rebels lose last stronghold west of Tripoli

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/A ... TE=DEFAULT

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Pirate threatens India after capture of 61 pirates (It's Time to put an end to the Pirates!!!)

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/P ... 4-11-56-37

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Stricken Japan nuclear plant rocked by 2nd blast

The second hydrogen explosion in three days rocked Japan's stricken Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant Monday,
sending a massive column of smoke into the air and wounding 11 workers. Hours later, the U.S. said it had
shifted its offshore forces away from the plant after detecting low-level radioactive contamination.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... 66201ae86a

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US Armed Forces Japan Earthquake/Tsunami Relief

This website provides the summary of what the US Armed Forces is doing for the
Earthquake/Tsunami Relief:
http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2011/0311_japan/

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International Aid Efforts Come Together Quickly

Eight U.S. Navy warships and the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force humanitarian assistance teams were dispatched
immediately. The Japanese dubbed the Marines' effort "Operation Tomodachi" for the word "friendship."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011 ... 4_ST_N.htm

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Before and After images of Japan

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan ... eafter.htm

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Memories, Washed Away

Will my family in Japan be as lucky as it was in 1945?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/opini ... l?emc=eta1

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The Real Story - Japan Nuclear Plant Damage

Good Explanation with out sensationalism.
http://www.benlambert.co.uk/japan/

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U.S. supercomputer experts assess radiation risks amid crisis at Japanese nuclear facility

The National Nuclear Security Administration activates a California-based center to process
predictive models based on available information.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?a ... dcn=e_gvet

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Despite power outage, key U.S. air base in Japan supports rescue operations

With limited power and communications capability in frigid temperatures, Misawa Air Base in northeast
Japan has been serving as the hub for search-and-rescue teams that arrived Sunday.
http://www.nextgov.com/nextgov/ng_20110 ... ne=NGtoday

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U.S. Navy: Low-level radiation detected at some Tokyo-area bases

The Navy said very low levels of airborne radiation were detected Tuesday at greater Tokyo-area bases
in Yokosuka and Atsugi, prompting commanders to direct base residents to remain indoors as a precaution.
http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/ear ... -1.137754#

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Japan Faces Potential Nuclear Disaster as Radiation Levels Rise

Japan faced the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear accident after an explosion further damaged one of the
crippled reactors and a fire at another spewed large amounts of radioactive material into the air.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world ... l?emc=eta1

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Panic Selling Depresses Stock Markets in Japan and Rest of Asia

The Nikkei 225 index fell as much as 14 percent on Tuesday as the prospect of a nuclear catastrophe
in Japan spooked investors.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/busin ... l?emc=eta1

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Disaster in Japan Batters Suppliers

The disaster in Japan has damaged factories and disrupted the power and transportation infrastructure,
causing a jump in prices for electronic components.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/busin ... l?emc=eta1

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North Korea willing to talk about uranium program

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/A ... TE=DEFAULT

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Emerging Economies Move Ahead With Nuclear Plans

Big developing nations might reconsider their ambitious plans. But for now India and China say
they will continue to invest in nuclear power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/busin ... l?emc=eta1

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China says yuan exchange rate not on agenda at G20 meeting in Nanjing

BEIJING - The exchange rate of China's currency will not be on the agenda when a G-20 meeting is held in
Nanjing at the end of the month, a Foreign Ministry official said Tuesday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... ailarticle

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U.S. Steps Up Partnerships With China, India

More trips to Beijing or New Delhi could be in your future as the Air Force strives to deepen
military-to-military partnerships with China and India.
http://airforcetimes.va.newsmemory.com/ ... forcetimes

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[flight23]

http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2011/03/15 ... a-spy-tna/

[frankwhite]

http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2011/03/15/market-meltdown-time-to-sell-everything-tza-dxd-sds-faz-skf-vxx-fas-dog-sh-dia-spy-tna/

...based on Flight's little article above, and the continued unrest in the middle east... I'm predicting a big sell off this afternoon... good luck to all those who are holding strong in there!

[flight23]

Im not sure how much faith I put in that article entirely myself... some of the points are valid, particularly the more short term possibility of hitting sub 1200 in the S&P by mid April, but I think the doom and gloom part of the article is a bit over the top... personally I think we're in the midst of an overall bull market with a moderate correction in the making.

[blakeh02]

Please please please someone tell me something positive about this market that points to a long term bull market. Something factual please and nothing based on charts.