The Gilmo Report

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

The Gilmo Report

Post by Jahbulon »

Used with permission.

Direction: Up
Posted: 01 Jan 2013 09:20 PM PST

Monday's session, a basic trend day with good close, tilted the near-term direction as up. Volume was not great; this may have exaggerated the extent of the move.

Beneath the surface, the most interesting characteristic is the sharp weakness exhibited by consumer staples recently. This is one of the most conservative sectors of the market. It tends to show relative weakness to the average stock midway through a bull market as participants rotate out of low-expectation groups and into the beta babies. It is possible, then, that participants rotate out of staples and other defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities in anticipation of a post-cliff economic expansion and ongoing bull market. If one is a bear, this is not what one wants to see.

This thesis is supported by relative strength in emerging markets (China included), small-capitalization issues, and the financials. In other words, the risk-on trade, more or less.

The chart at the top of the report linked below corroborates this. Institutions are showing lukewarm conviction about equities, yet no one is itchy enough to get out of the pool. The view here: Upward revaluation is in store, as an improving expansion driven by the housing sector and a revitalized industrial sector is discounted into prices.

While this view is nice, it says nothing about whether a campaign of successful speculation is imminent. For that, we need to look at fundamentally-sound titles to see how many set attractive chart patterns. There are not many, but there are some.

For specific names, . . . . To continue reading, please click here.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
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L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
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