TSP Advantage!

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Relevant
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:01 pm

TSP Advantage!

Post by Relevant »

Relevant Investments, LLC is happy to announce the launch of TSP Advantage!

TSP Advantage is a NOT-FOR-PROFIT service catering to Federal Civil Servants and members of the U.S. Military participating in the Thrift Savings Plan.

For more information please visit http://www.TSPadvantage.org and check out my new mobile friendly web site. Feedback is always welcomed.

Going forward I will be posting the following charts and analysis at TSP Center on a monthly basis. For future reference, this and future posts can be found in the "Market Commentary" forum under the topic/subject "TSP Advantage"

The charts below have been constructed based on end of month closing prices of the core funds within the Thrift Savings Plan. A moving average is applied to the charts depicted by the red line and red shading of the histogram to identify when the fund has moved into a downward trend.

Bottom Line - when the fund is in the "Black" it is moving up. If the fund is in the "Red" the trend is moving down. Black is good, Red is bad!

Occasionally a fund will "whipsaw" from black to red then back to black. You can move out of the fund at the first sign of red and get back in at the first sign of black or wait a month or 2 to see how things develop. Either way you will avoid the pain of a major down trend in the Fund. I have back tested the moving averages used to calculate these charts back to 1926 with a high degree of accuracy.

The following chart represents the C-Fund. As you can see, it clearly portrays the market crashes of 2000 and 2008. The "whipsaws" in 2010 and 2011/2012 were ultimately mitigated back to the "Black".

Click on chart to enlarge Open Post to View Charts for other TSP Funds
Image

The following chart is a close-up view of the C-Fund. While the possibility exists for the C-Fund to break back out into the "Black" the C-Fund is currently in the "Red" and has been moving in a downward trend since July.
Click on chart to enlarge
Image

The following chart portrays the S-Fund which has been unambiguously in a down trend since July.
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This chart represents the I-Fund. While there may have been an opportunity for some quick profits in early 2015, longer term investors were wise to avoid the I-Fund.
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The F-Fund is showing some promise. It has been in an uptrend since the first of the year. The Federal Reserve looks like they may have to back-off from their tightening stance, which will be a positive for the F-Fund. I'm not sure if I'm ready to back-up the truck on the F-Fund just yet, but I'd certainly consider moving some to the F-Fund.
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And last but not least the boring G-Fund. It's not the winner very often but it took home the Gold in 2015!
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Last edited by Relevant on Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:08 pm, edited 5 times in total.

User avatar
zobtraffic
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:15 pm

Re: TSP Advantage!

Post by zobtraffic »

Very nice chart. A similar strategy can be found by googling' Meb Faber timing model. It is a very informative way to trade using a longer term moving average along with well diversified etf's. It explains rules for in or out and like many successful models stresses the "no noise" concept. No CNBC, no hype etc etc. Much less stress investing this way plus very profitable.

paul
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2010 6:06 pm

Re: TSP Advantage!

Post by paul »

Thanks, Relevant.
Are you using a simple moving average. What is the time period?

User avatar
Relevant
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:01 pm

Re: TSP Advantage!

Post by Relevant »

paul wrote:Thanks, Relevant.
Are you using a simple moving average. What is the time period?

12 period SMA on a Monthly Chart

Reese99
Posts: 142
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 3:26 pm

Re: TSP Advantage!

Post by Reese99 »

Hi Relevant,

Thanks for doing this. It's a real boon to the TSP community!

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".