What's Next?

General TSP Discussion.

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DDH1
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:16 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by DDH1 »

nrialto wrote:Anyone else see a melt-up followed by a decline in the near-future?


Yes, I kinda do. The divergence in the latest CNN Money Fear and Greed Index gives me great pause.

FnG.JPG


Plenty of momentum up right now, but much of that is only due to stock buybacks and "yield chasing" as I have heard it. Why could we expect the conditions driving these causes not to continue?
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rcenteno
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:29 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by rcenteno »

C Fund broke 2160 support today and now the next level of resistance is 2200 and 2220. I am missing a good rally so far so I am moving into C today. My top 10 that I follow are either in C and/or S so I will move to C Fund today. Buy high. I can always move back to G. A pullback to 2140 is not materializing.

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: What's Next?

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

A pro I spoke to casually about it expects it to bleed up to around 2200 and then have a significant pull back. Who knows. 2200-2220 is still a solid 2% to pick up and that's assuming it doesn't keep climbing after that. I don't begrudge the move back into equities at all despite buying high. I'm out of transfers this month so I'll have to watch from the sidelines and see what happens between now and Aug 1. Remember folks, the trend is your friend and we've seen around 20% gains since the Feb low with no loss of momentum in sight. Brexit should have been the catalyst that turned the market back downward but we saw what happened there.

A look at VIX could help forecast what's coming: http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles ... _ven=YAHOO

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by nrialto »

Fed meeting this week, with a press conference on Wednesday. Anyone think there might be a hint at a coming rate hike?

alligatorm
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by alligatorm »

I would guess that any pending rate hike would be pushed back until at least after the election...
And take a look at this chart - it looks like the next month or so is a gift. I can't afford to pull out now and sit on the sidelines and miss a run up like this.....
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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by evilanne »

If Fed relies on the data as they say they will, they may have to raise rates sooner than expected. Since everybody is not expecting them not to increase rates, any indication that they will is going to impact market. We are back to same place that we were last year.

Six Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes, Jul 12, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-f ... =ousivMolt
Last edited by evilanne on Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by nrialto »

I have absolutely no evidence pointing to it, but something tells me we may see talk of a hike come Wednesday.

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by evilanne »

GMO White Paper: "The Stock Market as Monetary Policy Junkie: Quan fying the Fed’s Impact on the S&P 500" https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source ... f?sfvrsn=3
I like the final statement:
Betting on the Fed’s ability to generate continued market levitation seems like a dangerous game to us, but as Newton long ago opined, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

JOhmesATC
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:55 am

Re: What's Next?

Post by JOhmesATC »

VXF 89 Buy.jpg
No rate hike Wednesday but, some talk of hike as always until...Boom - This morning GDP report economy grew less than expected last quarter. There will be no rate hike this year. The one major foreseen obstacle ahead is the election but until October it is time to get long S and/or C fund. I am now long S only because I like the charts a little better. It would be nice if we could get to $92 maybe $93 in the VXF before the election & jump out mid to late October and see how things play out. BOL everyone.
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alligatorm
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by alligatorm »

I'm with you JOhmesATC !
I like the looks of that C fund chart - looks like some sort of bullish flag formation brewing....
And the S fund has been on that sweet gradual climb - for what - almost 3 weeks now....just like you "shouldn't try to catch a falling knife", you shouldn't jump off this gravy train until it slows down !
And even the I fund looks like it is breaking out....
And I'm really not seeing a interest rate hike anytime in the near future...
I like the looks of my TSP account balance the past couple of weeks! Slow and steady, moving up....
I'm sticking to my C/S/I mix for August....
Good luck longs !

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by nrialto »

Lately we've been seeing more volatility in the equity funds, including their closing flat or negative at market close. We've also seen some fairly substantial up's and down's throughout the day.

Does anyone suppose this the sign of a coming decline? I can't imagine the market has any reason to go any higher from here.

alligatorm
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by alligatorm »

nrialto - why can't you imagine "the market has any reason to go any higher from here"??
We are in the doldrums of summer - and no news is good news - the VIX is wayyy down, the fed minutes released yesterday said nothing to alarm anyone on interest rates, oil prices are moving up nicely, the DOW hasn't seen any 1%+ daily moves in a while now - this is a gift!
I see nothing on the horizon to alter this nice smooth upward trend. We are 10 minutes from the close and look at those charts - C fund up, S fund up, I fund up.... GREEN everywhere...
Mo' Money, Mo' Money, Mo' Money. :)

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galveston1
Posts: 148
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:29 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by galveston1 »

Today was a good day to be 60%-S and 40%-C. :)
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: What's Next?

Post by nrialto »

Anyone know what's going on this morning? Funds are dropping like a rock, but I haven't been able to find any news-related articles as to why.

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RGEN
Posts: 228
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:12 am

Re: What's Next?

Post by RGEN »

It's a fake dinosaur.
RGEN

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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