Onwards and upwards!

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Onwards and upwards!

Post by ArrieS »

Seasonality and systems aside, I thought it would be interesting to see what people see going forward for next year. Where the opportunity is.

For example next year I expect the S fund to outperform the C Fund by a good amount. The reason being that any tax reform and deregulation will do a lot more for small businesses than the 500 largest companies. That should drive the S Fund more than thew C fund.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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TopNotch
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:38 pm

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by TopNotch »

I agree with your assessment that small caps will outperform. There was a huge outflow of money from bond funds into stocks after Trump won the election. Tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and reduced regulations should all provide fiscal stimulus.

The only question I have is whether a December rate hike, which is a real possibility, will derail the Trump rally.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump- ... 2016-11-18
David Tepper - "There is a time to make money and a time to not lose money."

Warren Buffett - "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

GoRedSox
Posts: 38
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:32 pm

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by GoRedSox »

TopNotch wrote:I agree with your assessment that small caps will outperform. There was a huge outflow of money from bond funds into stocks after Trump won the election. Tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and reduced regulations should all provide fiscal stimulus.

The only question I have is whether a December rate hike, which is a real possibility, will derail the Trump rally.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump- ... 2016-11-18


Any thought of parking in G before the anticipated rate hike? Reassess from there.

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galveston1
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:29 pm

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by galveston1 »

The S Train has been a great ride this month. Small caps look like they will continue to perform well. Year-to-date the DJTSM US Comp index is up by 13% and sitting at 1,141 which I think is an all-time high. I’m optimistic that the December rate hike (if it happens) will not be a huge drag on the markets, at least not long-term. Most investors have been expecting it for a while now. And with the potential for a Santa rally, I’m staying 100% S-Fund.
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable

John316
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:43 am

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by John316 »

Does anybody else think that the Santa Claus rally has already happened? Maybe Trump played Santa this year and this all we get for the Nov/Dec rally? I bailed to the G fund today because I see some consolidation after the holiday and into the rate hike. Then maybe upwards again? Just my 2 cents worth.

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by ArrieS »

Maybe someone can explain how raising interest rates .0025 will be a drag on the economy?
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by Scarfinger »

John316 wrote:Does anybody else think that the Santa Claus rally has already happened? Maybe Trump played Santa this year and this all we get for the Nov/Dec rally? I bailed to the G fund today because I see some consolidation after the holiday and into the rate hike. Then maybe upwards again? Just my 2 cents worth.


This is a Trump Rally. Sales reports and market data will determine the Santa Rally.

I don't see the consolidation you speak of. Currently the "S" is trending up and breaking through resistance. The same can be said for the "C" fund. I would say that the "consolidation" has already occurred from July to early November.

With that said, caution would be wise. This strong upwards movement will likely be slowed by some profit taking. With the December rate hike coming there may be some sideways movement as people may get a little nervous.

But don't make the mistake of getting out after one down day and then miss the next push upwards.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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mrmaxd
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:51 am

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by mrmaxd »

Don't be fooled. The Illuminati are just waiting for all of you to put your money in S fund and then they will spring their trap and all will be lost.

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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: Onwards and upwards!

Post by sonofnthng »

Being in the parcel delivery business, I can say that from here on out the spending only multiplies and my work is proof of that. The economy will not be suffering despite this rate hike. Stick with the plan, stay in S fund, my 2¢
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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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