Effects of Italian Referendum

[Aitrus]

Agreed, the market reaction was in response to a 2017 - 2021 (possibly) mindset. My argument about globalization, however remains. The market movers today don't think about it too much. And understandably so.

I don't think that today's political and market conditions will have any significant effect on 2057. New technologies, new frontiers (space exploration, asteroid mining, etc), new medical discoveries, and others will play a larger role than whether or not globalization is slowed down in the here and now. The market landscape of the future will be somewhat the same, but the issues of the day will be different.

Whether a future lack of globalization slows down the market is debatable. There's no evidence to suggest that an interlocked global market is better for the world economy. Contrarily, there's evidence to support the reverse - that an interlocked market is worse. Take Greece's financial troubles. One minor country brought great hardship to the whole EU. Imagine what would have happened if globalization were an actualized reality, and Russia went through another decades-long USSR-style economic fallout. The world economy would grind to a halt under the "responsibility" to care for one of the member nations. In the past, however, individual national economies survived, even thrived, despite the USSR's financial troubles.

If, as you say, the coming change (globalization) will cause downward pressure on the markets, shouldn't the market cheer any delay to globalization?

I agree - it's better to buy low than high. The thought I have is this: What if today's high is next year's low? Should an investor delay investing today simply because today's prices are the highest they've ever been? Is it better to wait hoping for a 5% drop tomorrow? What if the drop comes after a 10% rise? Won't the investor then be buying in at 5% more than he would have today because he was waiting for the "drop" to happen?

[usps2013]

We can agree that US equities are historically a great buy and hold.

As to earlier, I did (poorly) transition from the I fund to US equities. Sorry about that.

This was a fun thread.

[sunny]

I agree with Aitrus.