Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
GoRedSox
Posts: 38
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:32 pm

Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by GoRedSox »

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... spartandhp

Seems you can find extreme predictions both ways, i.e., nowhere to go but up, or the exact opposite. Not sure I have the stomach to stay the course and take a big hit, but that cost me BIG TIME during the election. Anyone else struggling, or are the timers just staying the course?

hulk
Posts: 147
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:07 pm

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by hulk »

It's been a good run-up. Do not be surprised with profit taking on the sell on the news of Trump's inauguration. But after that your educated guess will be as good as any. Go Red Sox!

scottdw85
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:39 pm

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by scottdw85 »

Here's a historical post-inauguration day article.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-us-stocks-tend-to-perform-after-presidential-inaugurations-2017-01-11

S&P 500 one-month and three-month post inauguration returns tend to be down, especially for republican presidents. But a two-week return tends to be up.

User avatar
evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by evilanne »

GoRedSox wrote:http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/investors-are-bracing-for-a-massive-stock-market-selloff/ar-AAlQlz0?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Seems you can find extreme predictions both ways, i.e., nowhere to go but up, or the exact opposite. Not sure I have the stomach to stay the course and take a big hit, but that cost me BIG TIME during the election. Anyone else struggling, or are the timers just staying the course?
:lol: This week should be interesting. You can almost always find extreme predictions both ways...it could be a roller coaster ride...seems like a lot of emotion surrounding new president & change from Dem to Rep. I'm not going to try and time anything, but I may move more stock if we get a big dip. For the last 2 years, talk of moving away from QE certainly has made market temperamental with only 2 small increases in the fed rate--one last January and the second one for this month.

User avatar
MakeMe$$$$
Posts: 772
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:12 pm

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

I will seriously consider going G prior to the end of the week. I think that given Trump's wide divergence from the status quo along with some of his nominees "out of step" testimonies counter to Trump's declarations, we are waiting for things to settle down into a reasonably cohesive administrative message.

I think there are 2 major issues that will have the most impact on markets. Until they are addressed we won't know as much as we want.

1. Tax reform...we know we need it! A solid package that reduces personal and corporate taxes and allows for a sane repatriation of funds abroad is the holy grail. OTOH, massive tax reductions while promising equally massive military and infrastructure spending will be a repeat of the Bush moves that had to finance 2 wars while cutting taxes. How did that work? :?

2. Trade policy...I'm good with "better deals" but ripping up TPP and shaking up NAFTA might backfire if done poorly. I think China is sitting on the side just waiting for the US to walk away from TPP. The Chinese economy has become much less dependent on importing goods and if we walk away from TPP the pacific markets are wide open to them. Let's not ignore that the hawkish posture of Trump towards China might invite them to take their own actions to shake things up in ways we might not be ready for but that is a can of worms in figuring out how that might be done in context of trade let alone other areas.

I'm at a stage where riding the bronco isn't my idea of fun. LOL
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.

bad70nova
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:18 am

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by bad70nova »

UP / DOWN who knows where this roller coaster is going to go. I want to stay the course and follow my season, but I may make the move out of F on Thursday night moving to G, take my little bit of gains and sit on the side for a week or two and see what happens. If I do this you all should be good that say in as I seem to always make the wrong move.

User avatar
evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Investors brace for a massive market sell-off

Post by evilanne »

If you are expecting a market crash or significantly pull back, seems like F would be the place to be since bonds typically increase in value when people panic and run to safety. If you expect the market to rally for the next month, it would make more sense to move into stock so it appears that your proposed trade is totally based on fear. I would not recommend trading based on fear or moving from F to G, but I have been known to be wrong. I'm staying put.

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".