Buy the rumor. Sell the news.

[mrmaxd]

If you are anything but buy and hold (seasonal included) you are a market timer. Welcome to the club! We are all in this to make money and balance risk. My goals are to beat the L2050 at minimum. Preferably beat the C fund. All while not exposing myself to the market as much as possible. You could call this strategy akin to shooting from cover. Alas it doesn't always work. The joy is in the hunt.

[mrmaxd]

evilanne, I hate math as much as reality. Why must you do this.

I was out shopping for a new F250 or vette with all the money I wasn't losing this weekend.

[BoozAllen]

If you are anything but buy and hold (seasonal included) you are a market timer. Welcome to the club!

Not true.

Market timing is attempting to guess what the market will do in the future and moving funds (buying or selling) based on what the investor thinks will happen next.

Seasonal strategy is a predetermined plan using past performance history as a guide. It has nothing to do with timing as each monthly move is already known ahead of time.

Show me a market timer and I’ll show you an investor with single-digit or negative returns.

Show me a disciplined seasonal investor and I’ll show you someone with consistent double-digit returns.

My goals are to beat the L2050 at minimum. Preferably beat the C fund.

Currently you are doing neither.

You
2014 2.06%
2015 6.88%
2016 4.47%
AVG. 4.47%

L2050-Fund
2014 6.37%
2015 0.45%
2016 8.65%
AVG. 5.16%

C-Fund
2014 13.78%
2015 1.46%
2016 12.01%
AVG. 9.08%

[cswift01]

If you are anything but buy and hold (seasonal included) you are a market timer. Welcome to the club!

Not true.

Market timing is attempting to guess what the market will do in the future and moving funds (buying or selling) based on what the investor thinks will happen next.

Seasonal strategy is a predetermined plan using past performance history as a guide. It has nothing to do with timing as each monthly move is already known ahead of time.

Show me a market timer and I’ll show you an investor with single-digit or negative returns.

Show me a disciplined seasonal investor and I’ll show you someone with consistent double-digit returns.

My goals are to beat the L2050 at minimum. Preferably beat the C fund.

Currently you are doing neither.

You
2014 2.06%
2015 6.88%
2016 4.47%
AVG. 4.47%

L2050-Fund
2014 6.37%
2015 0.45%
2016 8.65%
AVG. 5.16%

C-Fund
2014 13.78%
2015 1.46%
2016 12.01%
AVG. 9.08%

If I've learned anything its that August and September are terrible for investing. If you remove them you remove big losses (June incuded).

Me

[sonofnthng]

If I've learned anything its that August and September are terrible for investing. If you remove them you remove big losses (June incuded).

Me

Precisely. Look at the seasonal strategies, they are all in F during those months.

/u/mrmaxd, The S fund was up 1.4% for week Feb 06 - Feb 11. I don't know what color Corvette you wanted, but that could've been your taxes to the DMV. ... Yes, you may lose a few percent in a small window of time(inevitable), but over the long term, the seasonal strategies abandon that emotion and pipe dream fantasy of always selling high and buying low, for a proven, emotion free hard plan that takes very little thinking, and historically destroys your returns.(did you read the data in Seasonal Musings 2017?) I can tell by your bullish personality that you will always be stubborn and bounce your money around. I sincerely wish you luck and prosperity!

[mrmaxd]

The Defense of mrmaxd. If anyone cares.
OK mathematicians, let me help you.

2014 I didn't start until Aug 27th. Let's start the game there.

Aug 27th to Dec 31st

mrmaxd 2.06%
C fund 3.68%
S fund 1.38%
L2050 .26% I will call that a win for mrmaxd

2015

mrmaxd 2.06%
C fund 1.46%
S fund 2.92%
L2050 .45% Another win for mrmaxd

2016

mrmaxd 4.47%
C fund 12.01%
S fund 16.35%
L2050 L2050% mrmaxd got spanked I have to admit.

2017

It's to early.

Total since mrmaxd started to date

mrmaxd 16.56%
C fund 22.15%
S fund 19.29%
L 2050 12.27% OK, I am beating the L2050. Buy and hold currently winning but market is at nose bleed levels and just waiting for a reason.

[Luke]

I can tell by your bullish personality that you will always be stubborn and bounce your money around.

"Some men you just can't reach."

[mrmaxd]

Stocks are going way up again today. Looks like I am foiled again.

Uncle, Uncle, Uncle.

Wait a minute. Lets go double or nothing.

[JIMMC59]

I am new to this site/forum. The seasonal investing strategy interested me and is the reason I joined. My intention is to try this system this year. I went in 75% S fund and 25% C fund in mid JAN. I was also all in C & S funds day after the election through Christmas. Nice gains so far and I intend to stay fully invested in S & C until end of FEB. I am no market expert by any stretch, but I see no catalyst that would cause the market to dip significantly in the next two weeks and believe the latest uptrend is due to the tax announcement Trump made. In a couple of weeks he stated their tax plan would be announced. The market likes the pro growth potential this tax plan presents. Slow steady gains overall until end of month??? It makes sense to me anyways. If the tax plan is robust as promised (lower corporate, capitol gains, and income taxes), it could potentially cause another jump in equities. Thoughts?

[JIMMC59]

I intend to use G-Fund rather than F-fund in 2017 due to the rising interest rate environment or may do a percentage of each.

[TSPTiming]

I am new to this site/forum. The seasonal investing strategy interested me and is the reason I joined. My intention is to try this system this year. I went in 75% S fund and 25% C fund in mid JAN. I was also all in C & S funds day after the election through Christmas. Nice gains so far and I intend to stay fully invested in S & C until end of FEB. I am no market expert by any stretch, but I see no catalyst that would cause the market to dip significantly in the next two weeks and believe the latest uptrend is due to the tax announcement Trump made. In a couple of weeks he stated their tax plan would be announced. The market likes the pro growth potential this tax plan presents. Slow steady gains overall until end of month??? It makes sense to me anyways. If the tax plan is robust as promised (lower corporate, capitol gains, and income taxes), it could potentially cause another jump in equities. Thoughts?

My thoughts...you say you intend to follow a seasonal strategy this year, but then in the same paragraph you start talking about Trump's tax plan, i.e., you are looking for reasons to time the market. Believe me, I understand, I still have difficulty in following my own seasonal system but am finally managing to do it, and what I like best about it is that the news is just entertainment to me now since I know in the long run my system will keep me in the top 10 to 20% of investor returns. That's good enough for me.

[TSPBuilder]

You rookies go ahead and leave all your money in the market at these prices. Just know chicken little did warn you. Jethro, why'd have to bring my past performance into it. I hate reality. My strategy is the best and works everytime. I just gotta work a few bugs out. Like when to buy and when to sell.

I'd like to follow your plan once you get those bugs worked out.[/quote]

Try getting a feel for when the I fund(EFA)crosses the 10- and 50-day SMA's (I like a 3 month window for learning purposes with expansions out to 1- and 5-yr for the big picture when you get comfortable with the 3mo.) and the patterns associated with them to have a good idea for when to buy and sell. This past January was a classic pattern to learn on.

I found "Top 21 Trading Rules for Beginners A Visual Guide" was an excellent primer that mirrored most of my own rules that I learned over the years and picked up two others to augment my own. I personally do better with at least 4 moves per month to compensate for early buy-ins that don't pan out. I used to get 20-40% per year before they shortend the IFT's. Now I use it on non-TSP investments to hit the 40-68% range (unlimited IFT's, and no fees). Good luck!

[cswift01]

I prefer the lazy and somewhat disconnected route. I do a modified seasonal investing strategy. For sure June, August, September and first few weeks of October I'm in F. The rest of the year I look at politics and expectations. Usually this will mean a combination of the C and S Funds (although I is included this year). In looking at most seasonal investors, that is what most do anyway (minus the I Fund).

Me

[JIMMC59]

I am new to this site/forum. The seasonal investing strategy interested me and is the reason I joined. My intention is to try this system this year. I went in 75% S fund and 25% C fund in mid JAN. I was also all in C & S funds day after the election through Christmas. Nice gains so far and I intend to stay fully invested in S & C until end of FEB. I am no market expert by any stretch, but I see no catalyst that would cause the market to dip significantly in the next two weeks and believe the latest uptrend is due to the tax announcement Trump made. In a couple of weeks he stated their tax plan would be announced. The market likes the pro growth potential this tax plan presents. Slow steady gains overall until end of month??? It makes sense to me anyways. If the tax plan is robust as promised (lower corporate, capitol gains, and income taxes), it could potentially cause another jump in equities. Thoughts?

My thoughts...you say you intend to follow a seasonal strategy this year, but then in the same paragraph you start talking about Trump's tax plan, i.e., you are looking for reasons to time the market. Believe me, I understand, I still have difficulty in following my own seasonal system but am finally managing to do it, and what I like best about it is that the news is just entertainment to me now since I know in the long run my system will keep me in the top 10 to 20% of investor returns. That's good enough for me.

May sound like that, but I mentioned the tax plan announcement as a reason to stick with the seasonal plan. I read some of the previous posts where some were exiting to safety, G-fund or F-fund, because of the fact we are at market highs. My intention was to provide a reason to not exit. Seasonal investing is what I plan to try. Because I am new and hadn't had a chance to examine the seasonal strategies in detail, I started in mid JAN rather than on 01JAN. I also manage several IRAs for my wife and I, so I am not new to investing, just to this site and the seasonal strategies. I am glad I stumbled across this site. Lots of good info and discussion.

[BigBrenda]

Stocks are going way up again today. Looks like I am foiled again.

Uncle, Uncle, Uncle.

Wait a minute. Lets go double or nothing.

mrmaxd can we take it that you're going triple or nothing?