Buy the rumor. Sell the news.

[mrmaxd]

Well I just sold the rumor. I am always so scared of all time highs. I figured I still have one more move if want to get back in at these prices I can always do it. Looking forward to a restful weekend with no worries.

[Jamters]

Leave the gun, take the cannoli.

[mrmaxd]

[quote="Jamters"]Leave the gun, take the cannoli.[/quote

Thanks, that is just what I needed to hear. I was already second guessing myself. I will let it go and just wait for next buy in opportunity. I am thinking maybe as early as next week.

[bad70nova]

I am only half in S and half in F was going to hold this position and move all S on the 14 th, I think I missed that boat, now looking at moving all to F on the 14 th not sure how much higher the ceiling is. Oh what to do What to do

[maui21ice]

I kept in the F and G here toward beginning of the year in hopes that a small OR big pullback would occur, but nothing yet and I'm kicking myself for not being in the S so far this year. At least I haven't taken losses yet, but congrats to those who stayed strong so far and have made good gains in '17!

[evilanne]

I am only half in S and half in F was going to hold this position and move all S on the 14 th, I think I missed that boat, now looking at moving all to F on the 14 th not sure how much higher the ceiling is. Oh what to do What to do

Just curious, what seasonal pattern are you following? I thought based on your previous posts you wanted to follow one of the strategies in S for February. If so, why would you plan to pull out mid month when it is doing well?

[cctspfanta]

I moved from S to G today... hoping for a small pullback to jump back into S, otherwise I'll just wait for March and go C.

[sonofnthng]

Of course we area all free to move our money how we wish, but I can't deny the historical data and evidence of the power of seasonal strategies. The best part is you should be ridding yourself of this emotional response. Move on the 14th this, where's the ceiling that, I should've stayed in....

Trust the data and law of averages, and stick to a plan. Market timing will haunt you!

[mrmaxd]

Of course we area all free to move our money how we wish, but I can't deny the historical data and evidence of the power of seasonal strategies. The best part is you should be ridding yourself of this emotional response. Move on the 14th this, where's the ceiling that, I should've stayed in....

Trust the data and law of averages, and stick to a plan. Market timing will haunt you!

The best reason for using a seasonal strategy is trying to time the market within the tsp rules is extremely difficult. That being said (again), times when the market is obviously reacting to current conditions are ripe for a timer to work his magic. Fed decisions, BREXIT, Trump victory, Trump's latest tax comments, these cannot be denied and have nothing to do with past market perfomance. The market is up 15% since the election and you don't want to be caught standing when the music stops. Besides timing is more fun for us gambling addicts.

[jethro]

Of course we area all free to move our money how we wish, but I can't deny the historical data and evidence of the power of seasonal strategies. The best part is you should be ridding yourself of this emotional response. Move on the 14th this, where's the ceiling that, I should've stayed in....

Trust the data and law of averages, and stick to a plan. Market timing will haunt you!

The best reason for using a seasonal strategy is trying to time the market within the tsp rules is extremely difficult. That being said (again), times when the market is obviously reacting to current conditions are ripe for a timer to work his magic. Fed decisions, BREXIT, Trump victory, Trump's latest tax comments, these cannot be denied and have nothing to do with past market perfomance. The market is up 15% since the election and you don't want to be caught standing when the music stops. Besides timing is more fun for us gambling addicts.

Yea it may be more fun, but if your past Fantasy TSP returns are any indication of your actual TSP returns I would be asking myself if the fun is worth the returns? If you compare your performance to that of some of the seasonal players, it stands in stark contrast.

2014---2.06%

2015---6.88%

2016---4.47%

I'm not trying to knock your response, just trying to illustrate the differences in strategies.

[BoozAllen]

The best reason for using a seasonal strategy is trying to time the market within the tsp rules is extremely difficult. That being said (again), times when the market is obviously reacting to current conditions are ripe for a timer to work his magic. Fed decisions, BREXIT, Trump victory, Trump's latest tax comments, these cannot be denied and have nothing to do with past market perfomance. The market is up 15% since the election and you don't want to be caught standing when the music stops. Besides timing is more fun for us gambling addicts.

Trying to time the market *period* is extremely difficult. Trying to time the market with your retirement plan is simply not wise, even if you had unlimited IFTs. And whether the market is up 15% or 25%, the notion that “you don’t want to be caught standing when the music stops” is not a sound investment strategy for a long-term portfolio such as a 401k plan. Having said that, it’s your nest egg and ultimately you have to decide how to manage it. Good luck!

[mrmaxd]

You rookies go ahead and leave all your money in the market at these prices. Just know chicken little did warn you. Jethro, why'd have to bring my past performance into it. I hate reality. My strategy is the best and works everytime. I just gotta work a few bugs out. Like when to buy and when to sell.

[jethro]

You rookies go ahead and leave all your money in the market at these prices. Just know chicken little did warn you. Jethro, why'd have to bring my past performance into it. I hate reality. My strategy is the best and works everytime. I just gotta work a few bugs out. Like when to buy and when to sell.

LOL...sorry about that mrmaxd. I was only trying to show you a different approach. I guess if you consider my short membership here on TSP Center, then yes, I qualify as a rookie. But with my real TSP ($734,481 as of this morning), I would consider myself a seasoned investor. I only offered the information as someone (me) who has failed more than once trying to time the market. That was many years ago before I learned my lesson. But hey, if your strategy works for you then that's great. And your warning has been noted.

[mrmaxd]

$734,481 - 2% pullback next week = $15,000 loss. 10% pullback =73,500 loss. mrmaxd sits in G fund with no risk all weekend and buys back after the ever predictable up Friday down Monday. Priceless!

[evilanne]

- 2% pullback next week = $15,000 loss. 10% pullback =73,500 loss. mrmaxd sits in G fund with no risk all weekend and buys back after the ever predictable up Friday down Monday. Priceless!

Let's evaluate Jethro's account realistically
It is very unlikely that the C Fund (Jethro is currently hanging out in the C Fund) will experience a 10% daily drop this month. Only a little bit higher chance that it would drop that much over a week or two period. If a significant pull back occurs, it is more likely to be about 5% or less or approximately $36,724
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index

Since the election, the C Fund has gained approximately 9%; Given his balance of $734,481, and excluding any contributions for simplicity, his account balance would have been ~$673,835 back on November 9th; his increase would be approximately ~$60,645

Actual Result base on 2% & 5% assumptions
Increase $60,645
5% Pull Back $36,724
Net Change would still be +$23,921, 3.55% return in worst case scenario
2% Pull Back $14,689
Net Change would still be +$45,955, 6.82% return over 3 month period is greater than 3 out of 4 of your last 3 annual returns

You can evaluate your own returns since the election and compare it to the estimated data above. I would bet that his return is much higher than your return. Just giving you food for thought--trying to time the market usually results in lower returns. As BoozAllen stated above "Trying to time the market with your retirement plan is simply not wise," but it is your account.

Best wishes!