Page 1 of 1

Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:14 am
by cswift01

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:25 am
by ObamaSucks
Staying in it this year. Too much money to be made in my opinion.

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:31 am
by BandidosMC
Don't fall for that myth.

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:34 am
by MtnBiker
BandidosMC wrote:Don't fall for that myth.


Totally agree. Sell in May is not the way... :lol:

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:37 am
by bluedragon
Anyone selling in May will probably regret the decision. Not sure why anyone would find this to be a smart strategy.

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:40 am
by SamCooper
cswift01 wrote:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-real-story-behind-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2017-04-25

Enjoy!

Me


Sell in May is not good advice. But to each his own. Knock your socks off.

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:03 am
by Chulke
Well the idea for the seasonal strategies is to sell at the end of May...so technically you're still in equities all month and then you sell going into summer...idk...sometimes I think those articles just want to get you to do something so they, the writer, can make money off what you think is you doing due diligence....I say trust what you know and can prove...

That's why I like seasonal strategies....the statistics don't lie and will help you make an educated decision with the highest probability of success possible for a given monthly fund...


Cheers!

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:11 am
by Tiffany
cswift01 wrote:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-real-story-behind-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2017-04-25

Enjoy!

Me


Try to stay in stocks if your risk tolerance will allow it. It will pay off in the long run.

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:17 am
by cswift01
It would seem that most suggest equities for the summer. I'm thinking of staying in through the end of July and leave for a few months. We'll see what happens though and yes, staying in does conflict with many seasonal strategies that suggest departure in June.

Best,

Me

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:06 pm
by TSPKey
This article drills down a bit further. It looks at the best and worst months during post-election years:

http://jayonthemarkets.com/2017/04/25/m ... f-in-2017/

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:41 pm
by evilanne
TSPKey wrote:This article drills down a bit further. It looks at the best and worst months during post-election years:

http://jayonthemarkets.com/2017/04/25/m ... f-in-2017/

Almost all of the seasonal strategies are in F/G in August & September with most moving to C in October. Anyone know how much of a decline in stock market typically happens in August & September vs October, the 3 months to beware of?

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:08 am
by Tomanyiron
This website has a calculator that allows you to select months, and shows you the overall returns for the S&P 500. The default is from 1950 until 2016. However you can change it to what ever you wish. (Does not have anything for 2017 yet.)

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm


I like working back in decades. It also allows looking at only one year. It is easy and gives you quick answers to things related to seasonal strategies, election years, and other concepts we run into about seasonality.

July is an enigma to me. Smack-dab in the middle of the summertime, we have one of the best months of the year. And Aitrus' data confirms that. Anyone have any theories on that?

Aitrus have you seen this site, do you think it is reliable?

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:30 pm
by Aitrus
Tomy,

I just bounced that site's data against my spreadsheet. Pretty accurate. The C Fund usually outperforms the S&P 500 by a little bit, so there's some monthly discrepancies, but they're small (less than 1%) and always benefit the C Fund. Examples:

November 2015: S&P: -0.02%, C Fund 0.31%
CAGR for December: C Fund 1988 - 2016 was 1.85%, PNR 83% (24 of 29).
CAGR for December: S&P 1988 - 2016 was 1.66%, PNR 79% (23 of 29).

The biggest difference is Jan 1988, and that's because the C Fund didn't get started until 29 Jan. C Fund was -0.2%, while the S&P 500 had a 4.03% gain.

As a quick test, I ran a CAGR calculation on their numbers from 1950 - 2016, and again from 1988 - 2016. I did this to see if they were using CAGR or a straight mathematical average. They're using CAGR.

The site comes to the same general conclusions as I do about good vs. bad months. Because the Since 1988 - 2016 numbers match up closely between the site and my spreadsheet, I considered how each month looks going back to 1950 as compared to just since 1988. I compared the S&P back to 1950, and C Fund back to 1988. Here's what I found:

Jan
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.79%, PNR 58% (39 of 67 years positive)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 0.16%, PNR 57% (17 of 30 years positive)

Feb
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.05%, PNR 56% (38 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 0.58%, PNR 63% (19 years)

Mar
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.14%, PNR 64% (43 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 70% (21 years)

Apr
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.34%, PNR 68% (46 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.75%, PNR 76% (22 of 29 years)

May
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.15%, PNR 58% (39 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.33%, PNR 72% (21 years)

Jun
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.09%, PNR 50% (34 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.26%, PNR 55% (16 years)

Jul
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.88%, PNR 55% (37 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.11%, PNR 52% (15 years)

Aug
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.27%, PNR 55% (37 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.82%, PNR 59% (15 years)

Sep
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.67%, PNR 43% (29 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.27%, PNR 52% (15 years)

Oct
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.76%, PNR 61% (41 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 66% (19 years)

Nov
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 66% (44 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.56%, PNR 72% (21 years)

Dec
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.54%, PNR 74% (50 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.85%, PNR 83% (24 years)

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 3:09 pm
by evilanne
Awesome Aitrus!