Market crashes

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Market crashes

Post by cswift01 »

If you look at history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ar_markets


You see that the typical market crash happens in August, September or October. It's interesting how that lines up with the seasonal strategy and most of the daily strategy.

Good stuff.

Best,

Me

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maui21ice
Posts: 242
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:45 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by maui21ice »

If one of those daily's can net us 100%+ like they did in 2008, a few of us would be sitting pretty nicely while a majority of the world is panicking.

RedHue
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:47 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by RedHue »

cswift01,

Crashes per month by my count (based on link you provided) from 1900 to 2017

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1 1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 7 1 0

May and July have just as many as Sept. My concern is it only takes one crash to ruin you! Not sure why Aug thru Oct stand out despite the theories. There has only been 27 "crashes" in various markets. Not a lot of sample over 1402 months (117 years X 12 months - 2 for Nov and Dec of 2017). Thats only 1.9% of time. WHo is to say next 100 years sees more crashes in Spring...or even December? I have fiddled with stats enough to see numbers like this reverse in different types of populations as the sample grows. Not saying there isnt something to it...but just saying.

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Market crashes

Post by cswift01 »

RedHue wrote:cswift01,

Crashes per month by my count (based on link you provided) from 1900 to 2017

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1 1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 7 1 0

May and July have just as many as Sept. My concern is it only takes one crash to ruin you! Not sure why Aug thru Oct stand out despite the theories. There has only been 27 "crashes" in various markets. Not a lot of sample over 1402 months (117 years X 12 months - 2 for Nov and Dec of 2017). Thats only 1.9% of time. WHo is to say next 100 years sees more crashes in Spring...or even December? I have fiddled with stats enough to see numbers like this reverse in different types of populations as the sample grows. Not saying there isnt something to it...but just saying.
Sell in May and run away?

If you look at August through October, you are more likely to encounter a crash during any of those 3 than the others. October is the real wild card here.

Best

Me

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Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by Aitrus »

True. But the long term returns means that it's worth the risk, IMO.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

shadogree
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:28 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by shadogree »

Does anyone know why all the funds are down?

korvinski
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:05 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by korvinski »

The key is to stick with it.

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by evilanne »

shadogree wrote:Does anyone know why all the funds are down?
Actually the C Fund was up today but all ebb & flow based on a variety of reasons...some specific or general news and market outlook.

korvinski
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:05 pm

Re: Market crashes

Post by korvinski »

Bad subject title...lol.

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