Market crashes
Moderator: Aitrus
Market crashes
If you look at history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ar_markets
You see that the typical market crash happens in August, September or October. It's interesting how that lines up with the seasonal strategy and most of the daily strategy.
Good stuff.
Best,
Me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ar_markets
You see that the typical market crash happens in August, September or October. It's interesting how that lines up with the seasonal strategy and most of the daily strategy.
Good stuff.
Best,
Me
Re: Market crashes
If one of those daily's can net us 100%+ like they did in 2008, a few of us would be sitting pretty nicely while a majority of the world is panicking.
Re: Market crashes
cswift01,
Crashes per month by my count (based on link you provided) from 1900 to 2017
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1 1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 7 1 0
May and July have just as many as Sept. My concern is it only takes one crash to ruin you! Not sure why Aug thru Oct stand out despite the theories. There has only been 27 "crashes" in various markets. Not a lot of sample over 1402 months (117 years X 12 months - 2 for Nov and Dec of 2017). Thats only 1.9% of time. WHo is to say next 100 years sees more crashes in Spring...or even December? I have fiddled with stats enough to see numbers like this reverse in different types of populations as the sample grows. Not saying there isnt something to it...but just saying.
Crashes per month by my count (based on link you provided) from 1900 to 2017
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1 1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 7 1 0
May and July have just as many as Sept. My concern is it only takes one crash to ruin you! Not sure why Aug thru Oct stand out despite the theories. There has only been 27 "crashes" in various markets. Not a lot of sample over 1402 months (117 years X 12 months - 2 for Nov and Dec of 2017). Thats only 1.9% of time. WHo is to say next 100 years sees more crashes in Spring...or even December? I have fiddled with stats enough to see numbers like this reverse in different types of populations as the sample grows. Not saying there isnt something to it...but just saying.
Re: Market crashes
Sell in May and run away?RedHue wrote:cswift01,
Crashes per month by my count (based on link you provided) from 1900 to 2017
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1 1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 7 1 0
May and July have just as many as Sept. My concern is it only takes one crash to ruin you! Not sure why Aug thru Oct stand out despite the theories. There has only been 27 "crashes" in various markets. Not a lot of sample over 1402 months (117 years X 12 months - 2 for Nov and Dec of 2017). Thats only 1.9% of time. WHo is to say next 100 years sees more crashes in Spring...or even December? I have fiddled with stats enough to see numbers like this reverse in different types of populations as the sample grows. Not saying there isnt something to it...but just saying.
If you look at August through October, you are more likely to encounter a crash during any of those 3 than the others. October is the real wild card here.
Best
Me
Re: Market crashes
True. But the long term returns means that it's worth the risk, IMO.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
Re: Market crashes
Does anyone know why all the funds are down?
Re: Market crashes
The key is to stick with it.
Re: Market crashes
Actually the C Fund was up today but all ebb & flow based on a variety of reasons...some specific or general news and market outlook.shadogree wrote:Does anyone know why all the funds are down?
Re: Market crashes
Bad subject title...lol.
Fund Prices2024-03-28
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |