Hey everyone,
So I've been in this site now since July and am very happy with my TSP performance since I've started using the seasonal strategy. Currently following 7980. My quarterly return was the best quarter I've ever had! So thanks for all the work in outting together the strategies and calculator.
I love the site, it's extremely helpful; however, one downside that I've noticed is that it only gives you the top (or worst) 100 strategies based on the filter selected.
The only way to find different strategies that, for example, have a lower std dev, is to manually pull up each strategy, which is too time consuming, or read the threads in hopes to come across a new strategy that people are discussing.
For example, in the forums, I found 16292, 16198, 12523, 12367, 16384, 16013, 13682, and 12216, that all have 30% or greater mean, with a much lower std dev (around 5%) than the very popular 7980, which has a std dev of 16% and a mean around 36%.
How do I find more strategies like the ones above I just listed? My friend on here, Joker, convinced me to get on 7980 instead following the top mean performer, like I was doing. He's right too in that there is too much std dev for the return; the more I think about it the more I want a strategy with an even lower std dev with a really high upside which reduces the possibility of a negative year. I know there has been Some discussion on this before, but not much that I can find about using the calc in a different way.
Anyone have a strategy with a mean of 33-35% with a std dev of 6-9%?
Anyway, thanks for your inputs.
Jesrich
TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Moderator: Aitrus
TSP calculator/recommended strategies
1st IFT Jul 10,17
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
To further explain what I'm looking for in a strategy is I want to be able to go 3 std dev's away from the mean and still have a 10% return at the 3rd std dev. So, if my strategie's mean is 34%, and the std dev is 8% then 3 std dev's away is 10% on the low end and 58% on the high end.
I looking for type of strategy because it keeps my account at a 10% return or great 99.7% of the time.
Thanks again,
Jesrich
I looking for type of strategy because it keeps my account at a 10% return or great 99.7% of the time.
Thanks again,
Jesrich
1st IFT Jul 10,17
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
-
Travis1984
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Check out 16517.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Yep I heard a lot of talk about 16517. Good luck!
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Thank you onerepmax. That's basically what I'm looking for. Out of curiosity, why are you following 17056 and not 15533 or 15536? They seem safer with better returns?
1st IFT Jul 10,17
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Lower exposure to F and I and more C
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Nice going. 
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Learn to use the filters at tspcalc and you can see all those meeting your criteria. Since most of the leader annual RoRs are in the 30's you are probably looking at Standard Deviations under 8 Using onerepmax's stategy, I enter 8 under StdDev http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1705 ... sc&SDmax=8 On the row with the filters, you can enter and filter based on anything you wish.
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Evilanne,
Yeah that was part of my problem, I didn't realize there was an option like that just by looking at the calc. The lines adjacent to "filter" didn't look like a space I could type in. So, I was just filtering without that option.
But 15536 and 15533, that onerepmax recommended fit right in my wheel house. Thanks for all the input guys.
Yeah that was part of my problem, I didn't realize there was an option like that just by looking at the calc. The lines adjacent to "filter" didn't look like a space I could type in. So, I was just filtering without that option.
But 15536 and 15533, that onerepmax recommended fit right in my wheel house. Thanks for all the input guys.
1st IFT Jul 10,17
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
Good luck!
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
You learn something new every day. Thanks!evilanne wrote:Learn to use the filters at tspcalc and you can see all those meeting your criteria. Since most of the leader annual RoRs are in the 30's you are probably looking at Standard Deviations under 8 Using onerepmax's stategy, I enter 8 under StdDev http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1705 ... sc&SDmax=8 On the row with the filters, you can enter and filter based on anything you wish.
Best,
Me
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
All I did was use your criteria in the calculator. Minimum 33% mean and maximum 9% deviation.Jesrich wrote:
But 15536 and 15533, that onerepmax recommended fit right in my wheel house. Thanks for all the input guys.
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
I had no idea we could type stuff in that area!!
Re: TSP calculator/recommended strategies
I think part of my problem here was that I'm always on my phone and not on the computer. My phone screen isn't large enough to show the space for "std dev", but has the others. Anyway, thanks so much for the assistance again.
jesrich
jesrich
1st IFT Jul 10,17
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%
Fund Prices2024-04-17
| Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
| G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.25% |
| F | $18.68 | 0.50% | -2.85% |
| C | $78.62 | -0.58% | 5.72% |
| S | $76.27 | -0.89% | -1.07% |
| I | $40.66 | -0.17% | 1.19% |
| L2065 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.17% |
| L2060 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
| L2055 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
| L2050 | $31.39 | -0.35% | 2.57% |
| L2045 | $14.34 | -0.33% | 2.47% |
| L2040 | $52.43 | -0.31% | 2.41% |
| L2035 | $13.87 | -0.28% | 2.31% |
| L2030 | $46.25 | -0.25% | 2.24% |
| L2025 | $12.93 | -0.12% | 1.78% |
| Linc | $25.29 | -0.09% | 1.55% |