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 Post Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:01 am 
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Ok, well I think it's interesting.

I've been wondering about something lately. Our unemployment numbers have gone down in the past few years considerably. Yet, the cost of wages have not gone up considerably. Economists are predicting that they will, as traditionally they have causing a spike in inflation. Here is something I've been wondering for years. Ever since 2009 and we were in the growth period again, unemployment numbers went down. Yet, wages didn't increase much. I read many researcher papers to conclude that this was due to automation, machine learning (AI) and other technology solutions. As a result, inflation barely budget since 2009. Again, inflation is increasing much slower now (https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inf ... ation.aspx, slightly above 2%) than in past late cycle situations. I'm wondering if wages won't increase much in the next few years, causing inflation to move slower, thereby causing the inversion of the curve at a much closer time to when the bear market begins. I.e. it has always been that after an inversion you would have another year or 2 in the market to make stellar returns. Then there would be a bear market.

Note that I'm not a doomsayer or trying to scare people out of their investments. This is an economics discussion only.

Thanks,

Me


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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)