An interesting discussion for July

[cswift01]

Ok, well I think it's interesting.

I've been wondering about something lately. Our unemployment numbers have gone down in the past few years considerably. Yet, the cost of wages have not gone up considerably. Economists are predicting that they will, as traditionally they have causing a spike in inflation. Here is something I've been wondering for years. Ever since 2009 and we were in the growth period again, unemployment numbers went down. Yet, wages didn't increase much. I read many researcher papers to conclude that this was due to automation, machine learning (AI) and other technology solutions. As a result, inflation barely budget since 2009. Again, inflation is increasing much slower now (https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inf ... ation.aspx, slightly above 2%) than in past late cycle situations. I'm wondering if wages won't increase much in the next few years, causing inflation to move slower, thereby causing the inversion of the curve at a much closer time to when the bear market begins. I.e. it has always been that after an inversion you would have another year or 2 in the market to make stellar returns. Then there would be a bear market.

Note that I'm not a doomsayer or trying to scare people out of their investments. This is an economics discussion only.

Thanks,

Me

[crondanet5]

Well it is a doomsday scenario. AI is the content of a Pandora's Box. America was built on innovative machination because there was never enough workers. Now we have found a replacement for human involvement in the workplace. No job left untouched. Canada recently eliminated all bank tellers. Everybody does it by cellphone. No job is safe, especially in the United States. I too believe the wage rate will not change. But living costs will. And with limited immigration why are we building new housing?

An interesting side conversation to this issue is something I observed in Star Wars Episode IV and saw it carried over in the other Episodes. It is the treatment of droids and all mechanical machines. They dumbed the droids down by limiting memory space and expansion of interaction in the environment where they work. Humans have little time for non-humans. It implies that something happened in society between the year 2018 and the years Star Wars existed. There was a fundamental limit imposed on the use of AI. No robot pilots. Robot soldiers limited to involvement in the ancient Roman battle tactic of lines moving forward to join with the enemy. Hawking warned us. We must be wary or we will be assimilated. Great post.

[Smoker317]

I am not a huge star wars fan as I am old and liked episodes 4, 5, and 6 the best. Regardless, just teasing... didn't star wars happen... A LONG TIME AGO, IN A GALAXY FAR, FAR, AWAY... as in before 2018? LOL.

On a serious note, I understand what you are saying and agree that AI needs to be reined in sooner than later. The TERMINATOR and WAR GAMES documentary series lays out the worst case scenario of artificial intelligence. Again a bad joke, but still pretty scary stuff as when the Terminator movies were made, AI if it existed was nothing compared to current time.

Want to play a game?

[TSPTiming]

If it's a recession/bear market indicator you're looking for look at this:
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

And here's a chart I was working on that visualizes the last two sell signals. It looks different on different computers though, the text boxes shift around and the arrows might not be visible or pointing to the right spot.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/516ib6lg/#

[crondanet5]

http:www.investmentresearchdynamics.com/ has an article stating demand for jobs has decreased this year.

[cswift01]

http:www.investmentresearchdynamics.com/ has an article stating demand for jobs has decreased this year.

The guy lost me in the 2nd paragraph when he stated that Trump was controlling the stock market. Did I misunderstand it?

Thanks,

Me

[DickRubbin]

What is this talk of “limited immigration”? Nothing has changed. Big deal, ICE has arrested a few toys and illegals. Yet 1,000,000 still immigrate per year. C’mon man quit spreading fake news.

[crondanet5]

Dick we need to remove new housing starts from the list that makes up GDP. The good land is gone, developers build high rises. Since Americans do not produce enough babies to fill these new dwellings you have to let people in the country, just as your and my ancestors came to work and have a better life. That which cannot be produced locally must be imported.