2018 Finishing on a high note?

[Billionair]

This S fund today is a sack of crap.

-4%.

It's like we can't win.

[tcatlin]

Seems to be a similar pattern that we’ve had all year long: good gains one day, wiped imout the next my marginal news. Today’s headline of trade deal doubts has futures lower

We may lose the 1%+ we gained yesterday

I've noticed this too over the last months. I don't claim to know anything at all about investing but I noticed looking at my chart that the upward trends have not lasted more than a session or two if lucky, then drop precipitously.

I've started looking for days with momentum such as around +-1%, then cash out the same day. Take the 1% or whatever you can and get out. Seems like lingering in any of the stock funds lately has been a recipe for steep losses and this is coming from a buy and hold person.

This may not be much of a tactic but I used it successfully yesterday/today and I'll be looking to buy back in and try to repeat it. Buy low, look for one day momentum, then cash out to G. Rinse. Repeat.

[Ericdelee]

At this point, it seems like doing that would keep you in the green tcatlin. I’m still up over 8%. Anything above 6% for the year is a blessing for me and all I truly could hope for. If I can just keep my cushion where it is... I’ll be very happy

[sonofnthng]

Tcatlin, that's market timing, and will be just as successful or unsuccessful as any long term strategy. It's all a crap shoot. The problem with the tsp and trying to play that game you speak of, you buy in, cash out, and now you're out of moves for the month.

Keep your emotions in check, and everyone hold your heads, we will be ok.

[misfit]

I read somewhere on here about a December stragedy of starting in S for the first week, moving to G the second week, then finishing out the month in I. How is that possible when the second move to G is the last move permitted for the month?

[Tomanyiron]

I read somewhere on here about a December stragedy of starting in S for the first week, moving to G the second week, then finishing out the month in I. How is that possible when the second move to G is the last move permitted for the month?

Well I'm not sure, about the system you're talking of. But if you were in S last day of Nov you would be entering Dec in the S, with 2 IFTs.

[Hoss2112]

I read somewhere on here about a December stragedy of starting in S for the first week, moving to G the second week, then finishing out the month in I. How is that possible when the second move to G is the last move permitted for the month?

If you are in S when the month starts, G is your first move and I is your second.

[misfit]

Thanks tomi and hoss! I'm generally mostly in G by the end of the months this year. What a
s-show 2018 has been.

[sonofnthng]

Does anybody know why my return dropped more than 4.5% when the S fund was down 3.82?

[wingchaser]

Does anybody know why my return dropped more than 4.5% when the S fund was down 3.82?

Inertia!!!

God, forgive me for bloggin' during the Funeral of one of the greatest Dignitaries to ever walk our land...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[misfit]

I'm staying put... in mostly S. I'm not falling for this crap this time around! Stress levels are definitely up.

[jlozano042]

I got spooked .... which is funny because I'm saying the same thing "I'm not falling for this crap this time around!"

The past few times I just sat there and let the bear eat my ass while everyone was in "G". Now I'm going to "G" tomorrow - watch the market bounce +20% back. :/

[XAMOTOMAX]

Tcatlin, that's market timing, and will be just as successful or unsuccessful as any long term strategy. It's all a crap shoot. The problem with the tsp and trying to play that game you speak of, you buy in, cash out, and now you're out of moves for the month.

I don't really agree here. Tcat is onto something and the keys are to be able to accurately identify the overall direction of the market on a mid to long term basis and then have the discipline and understanding to act accordingly. In an upward market, buy and hold is king. In a sideways market, it doesn't matter much if you buy and hold or park in G but there are opportunities to get in and out to still generate positive returns (but with that comes the potential to make bad trades and lose returns). In a bear or downward market you can try the same but it's more difficult as the whole "catch a falling knife" cliché comes into play and if it's clearly going down, parking in G is the best bet. I'm still trying to figure out if this is a downward or sideways market. We have pretty clearly defined support and resistance levels since October that are holding firm. Had that support broken today I'd probably have run to G but with it holding I'm expecting another in-range bounce next week, hopefully kicking off tomorrow. Then I'd expect a lower high followed by another decline with a continuation of a descending wedge formation, a breakout to the upside for a bit, then eventually reality will become too heavy and the market will collapse under the weight of itself. I've considered moving 50% from S to C but didn't get to it last month and don't want to waste an IFT this month. So my strategy right now is to stay in S, catch the bounce, get out to G with an IFT available to get back into stocks sometime before the end of the year. Good luck everyone.

[wingchaser]

Looks like a big reversal is settin' up for tomorrow. Impressive Long Lower Shadow Candlestick forming with this market action heading into the close...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

A risky proposition (& my self-proclaimed Risk Tolerance is HIGH) is to take a small portion of one's investment portfolio & go overnight with

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tna

More oftentimes than not, there's a strong return to be made between the close & the next day's action. I limit this activity to my Brokerage & my various IRA Accounts (includin' the ROTH). I don't always see the reversal immediately, but definitely within 1-3 days, this deluge should reverse. There, I called it!!!

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!