Beware - inversion

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Beware - inversion

Post by cswift01 »

At 5:44AM this morning the 10 and 1 year treasury notes inverted. Do with that information as you please.

Best,

Me

Zoro
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:44 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Zoro »

Shakin' in my boots man. lol

User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by cswift01 »

Zoro wrote:Shakin' in my boots man. lol
Head for the hills! Murder a butterfly and drink cow's blood. Or...protect your investments...soon. Usually there's a lag of about 6 months to 1.5 years. We'll see how this one goes, especially given the recent Trump stimulus.

Best,

me

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Tomanyiron »

It’s a Trump-tastic market now. None of the old school indicators will work, until it’s over.
Not inversions, moving average crossovers, extreme overbought indicators, trend following, or seasonality. Only he and his children know what’s coming next.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by jlozano042 »

cswift01 wrote:
Zoro wrote:Shakin' in my boots man. lol
Head for the hills! Murder a butterfly and drink cow's blood. Or...protect your investments...soon. Usually there's a lag of about 6 months to 1.5 years. We'll see how this one goes, especially given the recent Trump stimulus.

Best,

me
Thanks for the indicator man. ;) I messed up and murdered a cow and drank butterfly blood.

User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by cswift01 »

jlozano042 wrote:
cswift01 wrote:
Zoro wrote:Shakin' in my boots man. lol
Head for the hills! Murder a butterfly and drink cow's blood. Or...protect your investments...soon. Usually there's a lag of about 6 months to 1.5 years. We'll see how this one goes, especially given the recent Trump stimulus.

Best,

me
Thanks for the indicator man. ;) I messed up and murdered a cow and drank butterfly blood.
Hahah! I suppose you did all that just to get the pesky Twinkie to slide down? :lol:

Have a great weekend.

User avatar
Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Billionair »

The Tomy Charts showed us how close we were to reaching an October High. With the FED decision, was a good one to play it safe. Use less proximity and exposure to stocks for the time being.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Octjan2 »

Jay Powell has proven himself to be about as inept as anyone ever to assume the position of Fed chair. Let's look back a few months. In October he said we are a LONG way from neutral on rates. In December he said that running off the balance sheet is on autopilot. Then Trump bashes him and he comes out in January like a broken little boy and says we are now pretty much neutral. Oh, and by the way we will stop reducing our balance sheet in September. What a moron. Is there any doubt that the yield curve, which has predicted the last 7 rescissions, has inverted!!!

User avatar
TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by TSP Jedi »

as long as the SPY stays above 280.40 markets will go higher.... look at the chart and see the magic of 280.40!

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by fordest »

TSP Jedi wrote:as long as the SPY stays above 280.40 markets will go higher.... look at the chart and see the magic of 280.40!
And if it doesn't? Cuz it didn't.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
bamablue
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by bamablue »

No words for today...

Image

User avatar
misfit
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by misfit »

bamablue wrote:No words for today...

Image
--------------

Awesome. And don't call me Shirley.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Octjan2 »

Love how CNBC always paints a roses picture of everything. Nary a word about the yield curve inversion until it is too late. The 10 year is now almost 1/2 basis point less than the 3 month. They won’t point this out until markets have dropped 20% sometime down the road. Then they will talk about the correlation and how historically this is an indicator of a rescission.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by Tomanyiron »

"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

User avatar
12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Beware - inversion

Post by 12squared »

Nice chart. Cause & effect are apparent - except for 2013 when low earnings appear to have been offset by QE.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".