Seasonal, Trends and Pattern Charts for the TSP

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skiehawk11
Posts: 2116
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:32 pm

Seasonal, Trends and Pattern Charts for the TSP

Post by skiehawk11 »

Post interesting charts that apply to the topic. I generally make my own charts since I enjoy editing parameters and understanding the data behind the charts. Any of these charts are informational use only.

People are geared to look for patterns in everything even if there isn't a pattern. Use this data at your own risk.

This chart plots the SPX daily closing price along with 5, 20, 50 SMA lines for the Put/Call ratio. Additionally, RSI (21 D) and MFI (21 D) lines have been charted.

Enjoy!

Image

First, look at the trend of the market by looking at the direction of the 20 and 50 SMA lines. Next look at the 5 SMA. Fast large spikes up and down could signal buy and sell opportunities.

When there is a large spike up, this is a good sign to buy and a large spike down signals a sell.

Also, take a look at the RSI and MFI lines.

The Call MFI line mirrors the RSI and MFI (Put) and MFI (Total). Look at when there is crossover. Generally when this occurs there is a bottom (over bullish) sentiment and should signal a good time to get out of the market.

If you have any other observations, post them here.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Seasonal, Trends and Pattern Charts for the TSP

Post by Tomanyiron »

Thanks skiehawk for the chart, and your interruption. Also gasoline price spikes,(like now), have often indicated a downturn.

The problem is you and I both have been looking at stuff like this for over two months now, and it hasn’t paid off much for us. I’m thinking more and more about the benefits of a contrarian investor.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Seasonal, Trends and Pattern Charts for the TSP

Post by Jahbulon »

I'm telling you guys, I could bring this whole house of cards down simply by going 100% S Fund. The market would crater like 5% in one session.

skiehawk11
Posts: 2116
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:32 pm

Re: Seasonal, Trends and Pattern Charts for the TSP

Post by skiehawk11 »

Tomanyiron wrote:Thanks skiehawk for the chart, and your interruption. Also gasoline price spikes,(like now), have often indicated a downturn.

The problem is you and I both have been looking at stuff like this for over two months now, and it hasn’t paid off much for us. I’m thinking more and more about the benefits of a contrarian investor.


I think being a contrarian investor has its advantages and disadvantages. You will definitely lose out on some good bull trends. If you park your money in a secure investment such as treasuries and wait for a signifigant pull back you will still outperform the market in the long run. For instance, take trading from 2000 till now.

A long term contrarian investor would have been in a fixed security when the crashes happened and bought back in once the contrarian indicators showed when to.

You may be a month or so off, but in the scheme of things you aren't trying to time the market. Being closer to the correct time is completely unimportant unless you are trading options or leveraged funds which have a time decay factor you have to worry about.

This is my personal opinion, but I sleep very well at night knowing my money account hasn't lost value. Well in economics point of view it has; through opportunity costs and inflation, but besides that. :)

However, if I had used this chart sooner, I would have recognized the bullish sentiment driven by the speculators and have invested accordingly. However, I don't really dwell on the past.

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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