As of today the top 11 and 16 of the top 20 performers year to date are 100% in G/F, I was just wondering what your current reasoning on the market is for that so I can understand the thought process better for those that seem to be beating the market..

Why are you currently 50% S, 50% I?

Seasonal Baby!

Beginners R' Us!

crondanet5 wrote:

Why are you currently 50% S, 50% I?

Looking at S fund pricing the price has moved above the 50 DMA and the 20 DMA is trending upwards...

I did 50% I for a semblance of diversity and because the I fund tends to do better when the dollar loses value as someone else here mentioned (perhaps you?)


EDIT: Ill probably be switching to G/F today . I bought against one of my rules when I shifted to S/I (do not buy while 50 DMA is trending downward) AND I should have sold when the S price crossed above then back below the 100 DMA but I didnt. Unfortunately this cost me a 1-2% loss, but hopefully getting out now will prevent a larger loss.

Ugh, market has turned positive as we close in on noon, looks like Ill be sitting tight in S&I.

1, They're called profit takers.
2, They're not convinced we're in a bull market.
3, They're as scared of Obama's agenda as big business.

Well put Uwsh!!!!

this is where the 2 trade rule hurts us. I'd rather be a profit maker than a taker.

based on Monday's market futures you should be close to recovering last week's losses. That does assume that today will not be a 3 hour Bull market that turns into a 3 hour Bear market. I will be following the list of IFT people today to see if you join them or if your market analysis expects more market gain. As a side note, I was surprised to see for one day I had hit the top of the 5 day chart. Was away in Vegas attending an away event. I'm sure I'll drop to 325th after today's market if it stays positive. But I decided to follow Jeff and Prophet who are both out of the C,S,I. Jeff is good about avoiding market drops so I'm out to preserve some capital while I have it. The other thing I found interesting about your fantasy loss was that you were close in allocation to me before I IFT'd G. Guess I sidestepped something. Good luck this week!

Yeah looks like I may have gotten lucky... plus for some reason the TSP site is not accepting my password so I had to get it mailed to me and Im stuck in S/I regardless until I get the new password. Snail mail instead of email as the only way to get a new password? Jump into the 90s, TSP!

Im probably in the minority but I think the 2 trade rule is actually a good thing, I would have preferred 3 or 4 of course, but 2 will do. I doubt many strategies perform better in this type of environment when trading more than 24-36 times a year. I guess it would have been better if they gave us 24 trades for the year rather than 2 per month in some respects, but people would complain about that also. My primary goal is to avoid the large downturns in the market, and from what I can tell looking at only our short 2 year history of data here that can be done relatively easily just by selling if your given fund drops below the 50 DMA. You can make things more complicated by trying various different buy and sell signals but anything I look at that consistently requires trading more than 2 times per month seems to result in a worse overall return than techniques that require maybe 10 trades a year. This is essentially because any trade in the TSP ends up with a 1-2 delay so if you are trading frequently based on moving averages or other indicators you often buy at the end of the day after the buy signal and sell at the end of the day after the sell signal which significantly cuts into the returns.

If you had traded before the 2 trade rule you would have been able to take advantage of the small upturns and downturns and doubled your money each year rather than avoiding the big moves in the market. The gains for we few were incredible. Absolutely unattainable with the 2 trade rule in place. Given the option of 2 trades or everyday trades, I would be very happily trading and at the top of every leader's list on this site. Comprende amigo?

Yes yes, we get it, youre the best investor ever, if only you were allowed to....

Im sorry but anyone that claims they could be at the top of the list with unlimited trades should be able to reach the top of the list with the same limitations as everyone else. Not that I agree with his tone in his messages, but I agree with what Jeffvan1 said here:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=754

Today I was at the top of the 15 day chart, not the 5 day. And I'll get bumped as soon as the day's results are posted. Flight 23, I am definitely not the best rader out there. In fact, I have reset my fantasy tsp twice this year, first to get followers off my tail and second to begin again from 100,000 rather than stumble around in the 90 thousand area. So I'm not the best, and part of that is the stupid 2 trade rule that restricts my options and limits my ability to recover from mistakes as the month goes on rather than be stuck in the G. Okay? I switched to the G, both in my fantasy and real because so many of the top leaders (including Jeffvan1) are in it. Now as an old military man, with beaucoup experience in gaming ORIs and exercises, I suggest you contact TSP and get them to figure out some way of letting you squawkid and allow you to make your G Fund IFT when you so choose, and not wait for the new password. That protects you from a drop in the market, whereas sitting dead in the water could really hurt your bottom line, and I hope this helps you protect your assets.