Sell in May, go away?

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ObamaSucks
Posts: 23
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:00 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by ObamaSucks »

Staying in it this year. Too much money to be made in my opinion.
I will bleed on the American flag to make sure those stripes stay red.- Brassel, MI3

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BandidosMC
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:44 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by BandidosMC »

Don't fall for that myth.
Bandidos Rule

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MtnBiker
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:09 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by MtnBiker »

BandidosMC wrote:Don't fall for that myth.


Totally agree. Sell in May is not the way... :lol:

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bluedragon
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by bluedragon »

Anyone selling in May will probably regret the decision. Not sure why anyone would find this to be a smart strategy.

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SamCooper
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Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:58 pm

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by SamCooper »

cswift01 wrote:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-real-story-behind-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2017-04-25

Enjoy!

Me


Sell in May is not good advice. But to each his own. Knock your socks off.

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by Chulke »

Well the idea for the seasonal strategies is to sell at the end of May...so technically you're still in equities all month and then you sell going into summer...idk...sometimes I think those articles just want to get you to do something so they, the writer, can make money off what you think is you doing due diligence....I say trust what you know and can prove...

That's why I like seasonal strategies....the statistics don't lie and will help you make an educated decision with the highest probability of success possible for a given monthly fund...


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

Tiffany
Posts: 18
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:18 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by Tiffany »

cswift01 wrote:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-real-story-behind-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2017-04-25

Enjoy!

Me


Try to stay in stocks if your risk tolerance will allow it. It will pay off in the long run.

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by cswift01 »

It would seem that most suggest equities for the summer. I'm thinking of staying in through the end of July and leave for a few months. We'll see what happens though and yes, staying in does conflict with many seasonal strategies that suggest departure in June.

Best,

Me

TSPKey
Professional TSP Advisor
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:51 am

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by TSPKey »

This article drills down a bit further. It looks at the best and worst months during post-election years:

http://jayonthemarkets.com/2017/04/25/m ... f-in-2017/

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evilanne
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Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by evilanne »

TSPKey wrote:This article drills down a bit further. It looks at the best and worst months during post-election years:

http://jayonthemarkets.com/2017/04/25/m ... f-in-2017/

Almost all of the seasonal strategies are in F/G in August & September with most moving to C in October. Anyone know how much of a decline in stock market typically happens in August & September vs October, the 3 months to beware of?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by Tomanyiron »

This website has a calculator that allows you to select months, and shows you the overall returns for the S&P 500. The default is from 1950 until 2016. However you can change it to what ever you wish. (Does not have anything for 2017 yet.)

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm


I like working back in decades. It also allows looking at only one year. It is easy and gives you quick answers to things related to seasonal strategies, election years, and other concepts we run into about seasonality.

July is an enigma to me. Smack-dab in the middle of the summertime, we have one of the best months of the year. And Aitrus' data confirms that. Anyone have any theories on that?

Aitrus have you seen this site, do you think it is reliable?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by Aitrus »

Tomy,

I just bounced that site's data against my spreadsheet. Pretty accurate. The C Fund usually outperforms the S&P 500 by a little bit, so there's some monthly discrepancies, but they're small (less than 1%) and always benefit the C Fund. Examples:

November 2015: S&P: -0.02%, C Fund 0.31%
CAGR for December: C Fund 1988 - 2016 was 1.85%, PNR 83% (24 of 29).
CAGR for December: S&P 1988 - 2016 was 1.66%, PNR 79% (23 of 29).

The biggest difference is Jan 1988, and that's because the C Fund didn't get started until 29 Jan. C Fund was -0.2%, while the S&P 500 had a 4.03% gain.

As a quick test, I ran a CAGR calculation on their numbers from 1950 - 2016, and again from 1988 - 2016. I did this to see if they were using CAGR or a straight mathematical average. They're using CAGR.

The site comes to the same general conclusions as I do about good vs. bad months. Because the Since 1988 - 2016 numbers match up closely between the site and my spreadsheet, I considered how each month looks going back to 1950 as compared to just since 1988. I compared the S&P back to 1950, and C Fund back to 1988. Here's what I found:

Jan
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.79%, PNR 58% (39 of 67 years positive)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 0.16%, PNR 57% (17 of 30 years positive)

Feb
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.05%, PNR 56% (38 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 0.58%, PNR 63% (19 years)

Mar
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.14%, PNR 64% (43 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 70% (21 years)

Apr
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.34%, PNR 68% (46 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.75%, PNR 76% (22 of 29 years)

May
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.15%, PNR 58% (39 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.33%, PNR 72% (21 years)

Jun
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.09%, PNR 50% (34 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.26%, PNR 55% (16 years)

Jul
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.88%, PNR 55% (37 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.11%, PNR 52% (15 years)

Aug
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.27%, PNR 55% (37 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.82%, PNR 59% (15 years)

Sep
S&P Since 1950: CAGR -0.67%, PNR 43% (29 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR -0.27%, PNR 52% (15 years)

Oct
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 0.76%, PNR 61% (41 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 66% (19 years)

Nov
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 66% (44 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.56%, PNR 72% (21 years)

Dec
S&P Since 1950: CAGR 1.54%, PNR 74% (50 years)
C Fund Since 1988: CAGR 1.85%, PNR 83% (24 years)
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Sell in May, go away?

Post by evilanne »

Awesome Aitrus!

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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