July - The Next IFT

[ObamaSucks]

Judging by the recent moves, it seems like a good percentage of members are going to C fund. Myself included. Any thoughts on the July outlook for C - S - I?

[evilanne]

Of the most popular seasonal mixes, 3 are in C & 2 are in I viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13261

All the daily seasonal that I was looking at had C on 1st trading day (July 3-IFT) & I on 12th trading day (July 19 IFT)

[SunsetBlvd]

Took an early move to C. 7% so far, not complaining.

[Chico]

Chico gonna go to I fund. Cause my amigos over there havin' big fiesta. Chico love fiesta.

Arriba Arriba Andale Arriba

[dougellen1]

Chico B Funny!

[FlyIFR]

Headed back to C. C U there.

[BoozAllen]

Staying in C until the fall.

[Chamorrita]

Headed back to C. C U there.

Right there with you.

[GUTK]

What makes you think C is the place to be? C seems a bit overinflated and at risk for a dive if any bad news surfaces

[BR549]

Probably like many of us. When the Seasonal says C, I go to C.

[Quebec]

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.11%, PNR 52%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.7%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.89%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.16%, PNR 80%

July is positive roughly half the time for the C Fund, but the positive years outweigh the negative years in terms of CAGR by quite a bit. The longest stretch of negative July returns was 1998 – 2002, and roughly half of all negative returns were smaller than -1% losses. Of the 15 positive years, 12 of them were 2.1% or better. Having a slightly better than 50/50 shot of having a month return over 1% CAGR over the long term makes July a toss-up month that each investor must carefully consider. In the long run you come out ahead if you take the bet, but you have to weather the ups and downs. The 2016 return was 3.69%.

The best years were in 1989 (8.83%), 1997 (7.94%) and 2009 (7.58%). The worst years were 2002 (-7.7%), 1996 (-4.39%) and 2004 (-3.24%).

[Scarfinger]

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214

For July 2017

Last chance to move: Friday, 30 Jun before noon EST
For this coming July, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.43%
Last 20 years: 0.35%
Last 10 years: 0.24%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

June is historically the best month of the year for the G Fund. The 2016 return was 0.13%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.76%, PNR 76%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.67%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.77%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.54%, PNR 80%

July is arguably the second best month of the year for the F Fund. The 2016 return was 0.64%.

The best years were 1997 (2.69%), 2001 (2.22%) and 1989 (2.06%). The worst years were 2003 (-2.51%), 2005 (-0.84%) and 1988 (-0.49%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.11%, PNR 52%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.7%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.89%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.16%, PNR 80%

July is positive roughly half the time for the C Fund, but the positive years outweigh the negative years in terms of CAGR by quite a bit. The longest stretch of negative July returns was 1998 – 2002, and roughly half of all negative returns were smaller than -1% losses. Of the 15 positive years, 12 of them were 2.1% or better. Having a slightly better than 50/50 shot of having a month return over 1% CAGR over the long term makes July a toss-up month that each investor must carefully consider. In the long run you come out ahead if you take the bet, but you have to weather the ups and downs. The 2016 return was 3.69%.

The best years were in 1989 (8.83%), 1997 (7.94%) and 2009 (7.58%). The worst years were 2002 (-7.7%), 1996 (-4.39%) and 2004 (-3.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.17%, PNR 45%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.28%, PNR 35%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.32%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.35%, PNR 40%

The S Fund isn’t so hot in July. There’s some good years, but the bad years outweigh them enough to make the S Fund not very attractive in July. The 2016 return was 5.4%

The best years were 2009 (8.66%), 2010 (7.0%) and 1997 / 2013 (tied at 6.88%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.93%), 1996 (-7.51%) and 1998 (-5.66%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.33%, PNR 66%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.27%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.17%, PNR 80%

The I Fund has better CAGR and PNR than the C Fund in July, and is the best performer of all the Funds in July. It’s because of this reason that some of the Mixes use the I Fund in July, and others use C. The more conservative ones use F. The 2016 return was 5.07%.

The best years were 1989 (12.45%), 2010 (10.78%), and 2009 (9.74%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.99%), 2000 (-4.29%), and 2004 (-3.76%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for July 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund. (This is the formula I follow with my money, the best mix that doesn’t use the I Fund.)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the the G Fund.
G All Year, S In Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[MtnBiker]

C fund. Looking for that S&P to 2500!

[mmmmmbeer]

If you look at the spreadsheets, the I fund actually does better in July than the C.

I'm doing a combination after the 4th of C until the 19th then the I for the rest of the month.

[WildBill]

I'm in the I for July.