Considering Change from #16198 to #19408

[SnareMV17]

I closed out the last part of 2017 in #16198, like many others. It was very good to us, and I like the combination of high mean and low std dev. However, the F fund is driving me nuts. It has been a pretty horrible investing experience any time the F fund rolls around in either the daily or seasonal strategies for the last couple of years. I'm not sure I can stomach it much longer. As a result, I'm thinking about switching to #19408. It has a sub-4 std dev and still a mean higher than 30, while limiting the F fund exposure to just 8% vs. 24%.

Other considerations: G fund returns aren't going up, so increased G fund exposure means less return but still no risk of losing money. I would like to see more I fund investment, though strategies with higher I fund tend to have higher std dev. Go figure!

Any thoughts anyone else could share on this? I know a few have been talking about limiting F fund exposure as well.

[jlozano042]

Noticed the links in your post were broken, I believe there is an extra (http) in them.

19408


Ooops - never mind, URLs are working now.

[SnareMV17]

Noticed the links in your post were broken, I believe there is an extra (http) in them.

19408

Yeah I noticed it to. I've edited this post like a dozen times already, lol. The links now include the opposing strategy as a benchmark also.

[Chindsey]

Maybe consider strategy 23712? I created it yesterday and plan on using it for 2018. From what I can tell, it's currently one of the best in its class.

Mean: 30.24%
Standard Deviation: 2.78%
Percentage of Year in F Fund: 11%

[SnareMV17]

Maybe consider strategy 23712? I created it yesterday and plan on using it for 2018. From what I can tell, it's currently one of the best in its class.

It does look attractive. It spends a little less time in equities alltogether also. Another plus that you probably didn’t plan on is it I’d very IRA friendly. No real problem with trades clearing before the next trade is made. I follow this plan with my Roth IRA too so it’s nice to find plans that allow at least three days in a Fund before trading to the next.

[mindofmush]

I closed out the last part of 2017 in #16198, like many others.

Other considerations: G fund returns aren't going up, so increased G fund exposure means less return but still no risk of losing money. I would like to see more I fund investment, though strategies with higher I fund tend to have higher std dev. Go figure!

Any thoughts anyone else could share on this? I know a few have been talking about limiting F fund exposure as well.

The tsp.calc site does allow you to create a new strategy with higher I fund exposure.

[Winner]

I closed out the last part of 2017 in #16198, like many others. It was very good to us, and I like the combination of high mean and low std dev. However, the F fund is driving me nuts. It has been a pretty horrible investing experience any time the F fund rolls around in either the daily or seasonal strategies for the last couple of years. I'm not sure I can stomach it much longer. As a result, I'm thinking about switching to #19408. It has a sub-4 std dev and still a mean higher than 30, while limiting the F fund exposure to just 8% vs. 24%.

Other considerations: G fund returns aren't going up, so increased G fund exposure means less return but still no risk of losing money. I would like to see more I fund investment, though strategies with higher I fund tend to have higher std dev. Go figure!

Any thoughts anyone else could share on this? I know a few have been talking about limiting F fund exposure as well.

If you can't handle small lost on F fund then expect to be more difficult to handle with C, S or I funds. Investment always risk just to see how much can you handle your risk vs reward.

[bamafamily]

I decided to go with a fund with no 'F' for (at the least) the first quarter....I will probably stay in it at least through the first 2 rate hikes.
The main reason I stay in 'G' is not to make money....but not to lose what I have gained in C,S,I.......

[Ericdelee]

Was considering these two strategies (gclapper’s M3 Mix And tmj100’s Mix) But after seeing #16198 and # 19408; I may need to reconsider.

[mhende2]

I changed from 16198 end of 2017, now following 20835 for 2018 while staying away from F.
Set tspcalc.com for max 1.0 % of time in F fund which returns one day in F fund each year.
2004-20017 mean 29.23; std dev 3.26; Sigma 8.9 Currently in G fund awaiting arrival of 19 Jan to make switch to S.
Good luck to all.

[SnareMV17]

Holy smokes, that #20835 has more red than a lobster! A little shy on I Fund too, huh?