Just looking for an exit

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greengrass
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:28 am

Just looking for an exit

Post by greengrass »

Today was not it. :?

Greenangle
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2010 1:30 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by Greenangle »

greengrass wrote:Today was not it. :?
From one Green to another: I feel ya. At moments when the market is down, I try to remember that I have 30+ years before I probably will retire so I’m not really ‘losing’ money and right now is just a great buying opportunity :D . Hope this provides some pepto relief.

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

If you believe the market is going to continue down further, now is the best time to get out. It's that simple. Personally I'm watching the 2580 and 200 day MA support levels in the SP500. If both of those are broken today I'll likely exit tomorrow. I'm starting to believe the bull market is over and has run its course. The trend has definitely reversed since January.

babble
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:00 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by babble »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:If you believe the market is going to continue down further, now is the best time to get out. It's that simple. Personally I'm watching the 2580 and 200 day MA support levels in the SP500. If both of those are broken today I'll likely exit tomorrow. I'm starting to believe the bull market is over and has run its course. The trend has definitely reversed since January.

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

Support levels are totally wiped out.

https://youtu.be/04xOsNW7zTA

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marine234
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:01 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by marine234 »

I bailed last week and took a Big hit, but I have only 4 more years, so I would rather take the hit, and hope the market continues on it's present course, then buy back cheap and make out in the end. It's hard to eat $5,000.00 real money, but a lot harder sitting back and watching it go to 10 or 20 thousand! I don't think Trump is going to change his ways anytime soon, so I think it's going to be a bumpy ride for awhile...or I hope so!

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docrings
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2008 12:52 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by docrings »

The psychology of the market has changed over the last week completely. And emotions drive markets... but someday will be a good buying opportunity. Think about when your co-workers start talking about how they are all "selling"...that is maximum panic, and it is in the headlines every night about the stock market. Time to buy, ala March 2009.

The time to sell is when the good times are broadcast on the evening news, too, and even grandma is asking about how to get rich on the recent skyrocket trends...ala Bitcoin about a month ago. SELL.
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XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

Decent rally to pull back to 2580 and the 200 day MA. Support has held for the time being. Crazy times right now but I'm still waiting for the bears to prove they can pull this market lower than it already has been before I move to safety.

wmfullen
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:59 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by wmfullen »

I was all in S for a couple months. What a rollercoaster ride its been. I rebalanced C/S/I hoping this month will get going.

PhilJohn
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by PhilJohn »

You only lose if you sell. I'm buying as much as I can afford.

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

PhilJohn wrote:You only lose if you sell. I'm buying as much as I can afford.
Well technically, if you have the opportunity to sell and buy back in lower and you don't, you lose. Also, if you're buying now and prices continue to decline, you lose. So, you don't only lose if you sell otherwise everyone would just sit in G where no one ever loses...except that they do, when compared to the gains of the other risk based funds.

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marine234
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:01 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by marine234 »

I hear that a lot...You only lose if you sell! well if you sell and take a hit at 5%, it's a hell of a lot better than taking it after the market does a 10 or 20% correction. Of course you can stay in and let it run it's course, but then you could end up waiting years to get back in the black again. A couple of years ago I took a $7,000.00 hit to drop out and wait until the market turned. I still managed better than 15% that year, so it's not always good to just sit and ride it out. A 5 or even 10% correction can be rode out, but if it's a big correction (of which everyone says we are overdue for), riding it out is not that easy, especially with real money and not that many years to go. Good luck.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by Octjan2 »

marine234 wrote:I hear that a lot...You only lose if you sell! well if you sell and take a hit at 5%, it's a hell of a lot better than taking it after the market does a 10 or 20% correction. Of course you can stay in and let it run it's course, but then you could end up waiting years to get back in the black again. A couple of years ago I took a $7,000.00 hit to drop out and wait until the market turned. I still managed better than 15% that year, so it's not always good to just sit and ride it out. A 5 or even 10% correction can be rode out, but if it's a big correction (of which everyone says we are overdue for), riding it out is not that easy, especially with real money and not that many years to go. Good luck.
The financial crisis of 2008 recovered in a little over a year. That was with the entire banking system on the brink of collapse. If you stayed the course you were fine a year later. Those who sold at the bottom lost 40%. None of can predict what the market is going to do, so why risk moving around on the hopes of not losing another 5%. Stay the course and you will get it back. In my opinion you never sell into weakness, only strength. I deviated by following the daily seasonals and landed myself in an 8% hole by buying high and selling low.

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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by sonofnthng »

sticking to the plan. Today.... OUCH in the C fund.
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Seasonal Strategies:
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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Just looking for an exit

Post by Tomanyiron »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:Well technically, if you have the opportunity to sell and buy back in lower and you don't, you lose. Also, if you're buying now and prices continue to decline, you lose. So, you don't only lose if you sell otherwise everyone would just sit in G where no one ever loses...except that they do, when compared to the gains of the other risk based funds.
I'm with Xamot, "He who fights and runs away, may live to fight another day."
You may think it will make you to look cowardly to move to G now, but running away gives you a better chance of surviving.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Fund Prices2024-04-17

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.19 0.01% 1.25%
F $18.68 0.50% -2.85%
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S $76.27 -0.89% -1.07%
I $40.66 -0.17% 1.19%
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L2060 $15.60 -0.47% 3.18%
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L2050 $31.39 -0.35% 2.57%
L2045 $14.34 -0.33% 2.47%
L2040 $52.43 -0.31% 2.41%
L2035 $13.87 -0.28% 2.31%
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