RANGE ==>> SHORT ==>> MED ==>> LONG
C-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
S-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
I-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Negative ==>> Negative




Moving to 50% G, 15% C, 30% S, 5% I

tspgo,

based on your range sentiment, is this a medium/long allocation change?

Thanks for joining. I've been a reader of your tspgo.com site for a while

_________________
TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

tspgo wrote:

RANGE ==>> SHORT ==>> MED ==>> LONG
C-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
S-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
I-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Negative ==>> Negative


Moving to 50% G, 15% C, 30% S, 5% I

As of 08/19/08

RANGE ==>> SHORT ==>> MED ==>> LONG
C-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
S-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive
I-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Negative ==>> Negative

Be patient and Wait. Everything keeps pointing down for the I-Fund.

Holding
50% G, 15% C, 30% S, 5%

TSPking wrote:

tspgo,

based on your range sentiment, is this a medium/long allocation change?

Thanks for joining. I've been a reader of your tspgo.com site for a while

When the short term is positive it is good for 1-2 weeks. It is good for a quick IFT round trip.
If the three parameters are positive then it is time to get in and wait for the short term to start turning to start taking profit.
If the three parameters are negative I would be completely out waiting the short and the medium term to turn around.

If I were patient enough and wanted to make 4-6 successful IFT's a year then I would concentrated in making my IFT's when the three parameters are lined up.

What I post here is what I am doing in my personal account. I make my IFT and then it is posted here.


Thank you for visiting

The I-Fund is turning but it is not there yet. I think we should see a clearer signal before the end of this week and ready for the first IFT in September. It should be a nice ride.

As of 08/20/08

RANGE ==>> SHORT ==>> MED ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive <
S-Fund ==>> Negative ==>> Positive ==>> Positive <
I-Fund ==>> Positive ==>> Negative ==>> Negative <

As of 08/21/08

SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up <
I-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Down <
F-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up <

The S-Fund is turning down and the I-Fund is going up. I don't have IFT's left for the month. Time to wait and watch.

Going 85% G, 5% C, 5% S, 5% I

Repositioning: Will get back in with my 1st IFT next week. Tomorrow might be a down day.

The I-Fund continues to be the best fund for the 1st. IFT next week.

Good luck

The slope of the I-Fund has turned around (see slope chart at www.tspgo.com) and it looks promising

As of 08/31/08

SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up <
I-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
F-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up <

Going 10% C, 90% I

Good luck!

tspgo wrote:

The slope of the I-Fund has turned around (see slope chart at www.tspgo.com) and it looks promising

As of 08/31/08

SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up <
I-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
F-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up <

Going 10% C, 90% I

Good luck!

The charts did not lie. They just did not see it coming. On 9/2/08 we moved to I-Fund because we had three of four slope indicators pointing up. We took a heavy blow (in the 20K range. It hurts) immediately after the move. We will be "stocked" in there for a while because one more move and we would be out until October first, leaving us out for the rebound. There has been some significant changes in the graph. Three of the four slopes are pointing down and one is pointing up. The good news is that they are at the bottom and a reversal seems to be eminent. The question is how much will it bleed before the reversal.

Holding (trapped): 10% C, 90% I.

Good luck!

Can you explain what the slope graphs describe? What data generates them? Or provide link to where I can learn more about them?

Thanks

_________________
TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

It is so great to see an active trader really working to make their TSP account grow. Your charts remind me of one of the Premium Market Forecasters in the TSP Talk.com site. He was connected with Silicon Valley and had access to massive computer hardware and programs. So he decided he was going to build a trading program for the masses. Unfortunately he has missed many opportunities with his program. I believe the problem lies in applying historical data into various formulas to determine future direction. That said, it would seem logical that the I Fund is the place to be. Only the I Fund has not grown on market performance as the C and the S Funds have. Most of the growth in the I Fund has come from the long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar, the rise in the price of commodities, and the growth of the BRIC stock markets. They're going through metamorphosis (sp? sorry) {need spell check} and are not climbing in value. Instead the make-up of those markets is changing from manufacturing to internal product consumption. So it is wreaking havoc with the I Fund. Did anybody see the I Fund Chart on TSP Money.com last night? The right side was off the bottom of the chart it was so bad. Incredible. And I really feel for those who chose to be in the I, as I was last October and November. It takes skill and sweat to recover. And time. I would suggest the I Fund investors watch for a bounce, whatever it gets to, then switch to the U.S. markets or the G Fund. As Hans Solo told Luke Skywalker in Episode IV, "We're not out of the woods yet kid!" The TSPGO chart is theoretically correct that this is in fact the time to buy the I when it is low. Only what we don't know yet is whether or not this in fact is THE low. Remember that Europe and Asia also have the bundled debt problem in their housing sector. What will be revealed, and when, is unknown as they play by a different set of rules than we do. What is also interesting is that recent events indicate the U.S. mortgage situation may suddenly ease, stalled houses go off the market, money moves, an industry is saved, and the financials go up therin raising the value of the C and the S Funds. But that may not be the case outside our boundaries. Look at what Japan went through. Bad loans on their books for years with resulting long-term recession. Will this be repeated in England, Switzerland, Hong Kong? We don't know. But if it does, where is the impetus to raise the value of the I Fund? One of my mini postulations was that the Royal Bank of Scotland might be forced to sell Citizens Bank to cover their bad debt. Of course it is Dubai that acquires it. Theory only, please. But that might be the level of severity in the World financial marketplace. Again, I would urge all to watch for an uptick in the I, and bail.

crondanet5 wrote:

It is so great to see an active trader really working to make their TSP account grow. Your charts remind me of one of the Premium Market Forecasters in the TSP Talk.com site...

Excellent analysis. I use the slope of several Simple Moving Averages to make a decision. Up to two months ago I was using the slope of two SMA's to determine entry and exit points. The limitation of two IfT's per month made one slope ineffective. Now I use four slopes to determine the best entry point. Unfortunately a drop of 300 points in one day can't be forecast from one day to the other. Although the I-Fund graph has changed and if I were out I would be waiting for a reversal in the graph to get in, from a T/A point of view the I-Fund looks better than the C and the S. Reality is that I am in and I am trapped in the one IFT dilemma.

Thank you for all your posts and comments.

Holding 10% C and 90%
As of 09/05/08
SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Up <
I-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Down <
F-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up <

I missed a lot while I was gone. (Including over 50K). If I were out I would be buying in. I will remain 10% C, 90% I.

The chart says


As of 09/30/08
SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down <
I-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up <
F-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down <

As of 10/03/08

SLOPE ==>> NOW ==>> SHORT ==>> MEDIUM ==>> LONG <
F-Fund ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Down <
C-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Down ==>> Down <
S-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down ==>> Down <
I-Fund ==>> Down ==>> Up ==>> Up ==>> Up <

Current signal = WAIT.
A BUY signal will be triggered when the first two elements (NOW and SHORT) of the graph begin moving in an upward direction.

The S&P tested and respected the uptrend line at 1025. The I-Fund is ripe and ready to turn around but with the USM down so much, a +FV should be expected followed by another down day in the OSM tomorrow.

Going 100% C for 1-5 days!

Hurting all over. Doing better than the C, S and I but deep down in the hole.

Good luck!