I moved back to the "G" fund today. With the actual "S" fund ($DWCP) hitting tough resistance at the $600 mark AND having 6 straight weeks of modest (highly volitile) gains, I've decided to make use of my first monthly trade. I
can still make another round trip trade during any of next ten TRADING days, if desired. Although limited to two-trades a month, I didn't use any last month. Figuring I should be able to pick up at least another 2-3% in the short term. Fundamentally, I don't think anything has really changed -- oil prices has dropped but doubt it will drop too much further. Credit and housing market hasn't improved and will likely see further drops. With options expiration week ending, thought it be a good time to exit the market. Only time will tell...

Protrader 8)
100% G Fund (15 Aug 08)

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Pro-Trader

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What is your outlook on I fund? Do you think it will be good time to pick some shares since I fund is at 52 weeks low?



Last edited by yanni123 on Sun Feb 01, 2009 5:20 am; edited 1 time in total

Honestly, I don't track the I fund too closely. I keep an eye on it but don't really track it. I tend to keep trades between the S fund or G fund. Occasionally, I'll go from S to F if I think the timing is good, otherwise, 100% transfers between S & G funds. As long as I buy back into the S fund lower than what I sold them at AND sell them for more than what I purchased them at -- I can't complain. Regarding I fund, the price has taken some serious hits since 23 July. With the stonger dollar, I wouldn't know when to call the bottom. But, when it recovers, it should see some sweet returns.

Protrader

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Looks like this was a great move!

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

Let me say again that this was a great move

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

TSPKing,

Looks like you and several others were able to make just as great of a move on yesterday. Great job!!! I was considering going back into the "S"Fund last Tuesday and jumping out on Thursday or Today; however, with the extremely low volume, I didn't want to take the chance -- so I missed the chance to get the 2-3% that I was looking towards. Anyway, now we just need to determine when to jump back into stocks..... I'm thinking next week won't be so hot --- any thoughts!!!

Protrader

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

haha. I'm just trying to claw my way back to a respectable return!

Next week may be to early. I don't know. I"m going to wait for the long weekend to be over and evaluate then...

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

FWIW: I'm moving back 100% into the S fund today. With 5 staight days of declines, I'm thinking we should see some bounce next week after the major drop this week. Any move would probably be short-lived as I'm thinking we'll continue to test Jan, Mar, and July lows. Each test appears to drop lower and lower. This move is risky! Since May 2006, we've had 6 or 7 periods where the S fund drop for 5+ days straight; however, most of the time there were nice rebounds afterwards. However, at the end of last year (when it appears the bear market began), the S fund dropped for 8 straight trading days (27 Dec - 8 Jan) for a total decline of 9.8%. The following week saw flat trading and then another 5 straight decline of 5.96%. Within the last 5 days, the S fund already has seen a greater than 5% loss. We'll see how it goes.

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Whew, what a day!! When I made my allocations around 11 am this morning, the markets down significantly. So, in hind-sight, was today's allocation a good move or bad move? Well, I'm actually glad to see today's comeback. When I made the allocation change, the S Fund was tinkering around 2% down for the day. Yes, it would have been nice to get back in at this lower level; however, the whipsaw comeback is much, much better in my opinion. Why? If you study charts, when a stock or index has this type of daily behavior, regardless of whether the stock/index is trending up or down, it indicates a short term reversal. Notice the S fund in the following graph:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=4&compsyms=&D4=1&DD=1&D5=2&DCS=0&MA0=8192&MA1=0&CF=2&D8=1&D7=&D6=&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&symbol=%24DWCPF&nocookie=1&SZ=0url]

Today shows a DOJI where the index open and closes are nearly the same with a extreme lows (in this case). If you look at the chart, you see other DOJI's where the trend change is evident (6/12, 6/17, 7/11, 7/23, 8/15, & 8/21 and now TODAY!! By the way, you can move the mouse over the chart candles to get daily information.

You'll also see the same thing on the S&P 500 chart:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=4&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=&D4=1&DD=1&D5=2&DCS=0&MA0=8192&MA1=0&CF=2&D8=1&D7=&D6=&symbol=SPY&nocookie=1&SZ=0

Although this doesn't guarantee we'll have success with our latest move. But, bearing (no pun intended) any major negative news, we should see some short term gains.

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Hey! I don't see my name on the YTD listing anymore -- is the web site broken? TSPKing, What is up with that eh? Just kidding -- Gotta laugh because I'm too old to cry! Like everything else in life, I've gotta take the good with the bad. With a 6% loss this week, I'll be happy to see this week end. It's been an amazing week and we still have two trading days left. Not sure what we'll see, but I think I'll stay for the long haul for now. Perhaps the bleeding will end with the new SEC short rules taking affect tonight. Besides the "naked" short rules, I'm waiting for the up "tick" rule to be brought back..... At least my Sirius XM (SIRI) stock has recovered .10 today -- it was one of the most "naked shorted" stocks on the market. So, hopefully we can head back up from here -- but wouldn't bet the farm on it. C-YA!!

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

I've used my last IFT for September spreading my allocations among the I, C, & S funds. Watching today's gains, it appears that the S fund is lagging behind the other two funds. Usually, I trade between the S fund and G fund; however, we're not in normal times. Rather than waste my IFT for this month, I'll stay in stocks and try spreading them out a little. I'm expecting some type of bill will be passed this week (perhaps slightly different - but nearly the same) with a end of week rally.

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Using my 1st IFT for October to move back to safety. I don't expect any relief in the near term. With today's projected losses, I'll take Monday's gains and wait for better times.

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Pro-Trader wrote:

Using my 1st IFT for October to move back to safety. I don't expect any relief in the near term. With today's projected losses, I'll take Monday's gains and wait for better times.

Wish I could have followed you. Been stuck in meetings all morning and couldn't get my IFT in on time...

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

So much for taking Monday's gains!! The markets dropped significantly in the last several hours of trading. At least I know how much blood I have left! Yes, I drew a line in the sand and said enough is enough! I applied a tourniquet and tightened it hard to stop my bleeding! It may cost me a limb or two; however, I think I'll live! With Bernake's comments today, I've come to the conclusion that he needs to keep his mouth shut and stop briefing on actions they are taking! It amazes me that every time he speaks or the FEDs take POSITIVE actions, the markets tank. It's like the FEDs are saying, it's bad and what we're doing will fix the problem down the road, but for NOW, it's BAD -- REAL BAD (SELL SELL SELL). I keep hearing that markets project where the economy will be 6-9 months out. If this is true, it doesn't look good. Obviously I'm assuming we haven't hit bottom! Although I don't know where bottom is, it doesn't seem near to me. Why? 1) Mortgate rates have risen today by nearly .5% after the FEDs cut discount rate by .5%. Banks hogging $$. 2) I've heard that current mortgates in default (up to 90 days late) are around 8% nationwide (today on CNBC). That doesn't include all the loans that will have readjustable rates within the next 9 months. The housing crisis and effectively the financial crisis isn't nearly over yet! 3) Markets don't like uncertainty. Anyone know who will be our next President? Better yet, anyone wanna guess what affect a choice for either campaign will have on the markets? In my opinion, one will be bad and the other will be worse! (This isn't a political outlet; otherwise, I would elaborate.). Bottomline: I think we're heading lower and I'm looking to switch strategies for awhile and try the buy/hold (in the G fund) for now!!

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

With yesterday's huge drop, I'm thinking a short 1-2 day rally coming soon... Moved back into stock funds to work a bounce. May be wrong, but I already prevented a 17% loss staying in G fund -- so we'll see how it goes....

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.