I am just starting a string to track my allocations.


Today hurt!!! I just listened to a video clip and read an article and what is happening in the market is being referred to as the "perfect storm." Alan Greenspan says what is happening in the market today is the crisis of the century. Market conditions haven't looked this bad since the great depression.

I remember reading a post (I think Dr. Pain posted) where there was talk about how market conditions that led to the great depression are similar to the conditions we are seeing today. I am definitely starting to come around to the people who are saying that we have been in a recession for some time now.

Luckily (and nothing but luck) I had exhausted my IFTs early this month, and was in G when the market dropped. From what I heard the next two years will down trend. So my strategy will be keeping a keen eye on the places where the markets make a steep drop, get in for the correction (bounce), and then get out. Some strategy huh.

Here is the link to the articl/video that I just saw.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/56994/Top-Economist-Americans-Should-Worry-About-Bank-Deposits-if-Congress-Doesn%27t-Act?tickers=LEH,MER,BAC,AIG,WM,%5eDJI,%5eGSPC

As of today I'm 100% G.

Reuben

Nothing wrong with luck! Maybe I'll get some soon

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

We do have conditions similar to the great depression. In 1929 the bubble was the stock market and that was what crashed in 1929. If you look at the chart of the stock market you will see two things, the Oct 1929 crash that was the stock market bubble bursting and then the slide that resulted from the economy stalling after the bubble burst starting after the recovery in June of 1930.

http://mutualfunds.about.com/cs/history/l/bl1929graph.htm

It seems to me that we won’t se the stock market crash as it did in 1929 as the stock market is not the bubble but what I fear is the slow long slide from July 1930 through to the bottom of July 1932. This slide was far more damaging then the bubble burst of 1929. It took 25 years for the stock market to recover to its 1929 high.

For folks who don’t think this can happen again, you only have to look at the Japanese market http://tinyurl.com/59m3ax

The NEKKEI is at around 30% of what it was in 1990. The Japanese economy fell because of a real estate bubble.

I get really angry at folks who just tell the Sheeple out there buy and hold, buy and hold. How do you think that worked out for the Japanese 401ks? I am so mad at the TSP folks limiting our trades so they can protect us from ourselves.

In the bull market I bought the Dips and sold after an appreciable gain. I beat all of the averages. As I said here, I will now try and buy when I see too much of a drop to quickly over a couple of days and then get out again. I did this in July with a small loss and in September with a decentl gain. Other than those moves, I am in the G fund.

Pain

PS Read this

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/wamu-failure-could-trigger-extension-of.html

Hope you don't have over $100k at Washington Mutual

Yesterday was another big loss. As I have said I'm stuck in G until the end of the month otherwise I might have tried to make a few bucks today. Here is a link to a headline this morning:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/wall_street.html

It says stocks are poised to do well today, we'll see. Its interesting. It seems central banks all over the world are trying to prop up the economy. "Stocks head for higher open after rout; central banks plan to inject markets with $180 billion"

But there is still ominous talk coming from speculators about Washington Mutual, Morgan Stanley and Wachovia Corp. Hopefully the article has it right that Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are interested in a possible takeover. I don't know how much money the Gov't has to pump into these failed lenders.

I heard yesterday on the news from some yahoo that we can expect rises and then sharp drops. I think its all speculation. News isn't news unless something is gone bad.

It'll be an interesting day none the less.

Reuben

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105809/After-the-Fall-What-Happened,-What's-Next

The above link is a nice little article that describes what happened last week, and talks about whats next.

" The stock market's decline of about 20% from last fall's peak is close to the average fall for the market in periods of recession, notes Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich. "One can suggest that a bottom is near," he says. "

While I think the market might dip a little more, I think that when Bush and Congress are able to agree on the details of the bailout plan and make moves to implement we'll see another sharp rise similar to what resulted because of the AIG bailout. After the the multi-hundred billion dollar bailout plan is implemented I think we'll see a steady rise in stocks until after the Christmas season.

I know that the politians are calling for the swift implementation of the bailout plan but for my sake(EFT limit), hopefully its in October so I can catch the sharp rise!!

I'm still 100% G. At the beginning of the month I'm contemplating a mixture of C and S.

Reuben

The vote on the bailout failed the first time but I think it'll pass this time around. Its a big rush to get it passed. I read there is another vote tonight and I think we'll see a big jump tomorrow.

I have submitted my IFT to go 50% C and 50% S. I stayed away from the I fund because the the dollar is just to volatile right now. My hope is that the bailout will help us going into the holiday season (Black Friday and Christmas). We'll see what happens


Reuben

I see alot of members joined me in Vegas today betting that the Senate approves today's bill. Let's hope that the dice roll our way and we see some follow-up on Friday with the House passage. 8)

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Pro-Trader

Go Green! No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

Well the senate did pass it last night. But it seems that everybody knew that was going to happen. The markets didn't react the way I thought. I think I was a day early. The house vote (since elections are every two years for these guys/gals) tends to be more partisan and that is probably why investors are waiting for that vote to pass.

We'll see what happens. Looks like we're head for big losses today. Crap!!!

Well ever since I made my IFT at the beginning of the month I've lost over 20%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I haven't been watching the markets that closely because the damage is done and it will probably be a good while before I get my money back.

Stock prices are really low so I've set my contributions (10% pay) to 50% S and 50% C. I have a feeling I probably won't be doing any trading for a long time.

I have paid heftily for the interfund transfer that I made the beginning of October. I have been trying to determine when the best time to go back to G without missing a big jump. The stocks have started off high today ahead of the Fed decision. Hopefully they'll continute to rise. I'm going back to G today.

I have figure out that in a market like this no one can predict what will happen. I think the market is in the crapper. I will probably finish the year in G (unless there is a big drop and maybe I'll try to catch a correction) and I'll be happy I'm not negative 30% percent for the year.

Reuben

I'll be happy to beat negative 30% this year as well

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

Well it seems the pessimistic news has sent stocks down this morning. Since this week will there is much less volume things could be very volitile. I hope to take advantage of a big correction tomorrow and then get out again. I got my interfund transfer in on time. I'm 100% S

Reuben

I hope we see a big up day tomorrow. I'm still in looking for that elusive Santa Claus Rally!

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul

Well the market has some small gains this morning. The lousy housing report didn't seem to hurt the gains. Although I do see a slight trend down. Hopefully we'll see about a 1% gain today. I've put my interfund transfer in for 100% hoping to pull off a slight gain before the new year. Depending on what the market looks like later on in the day I might cancel it.


Reuben

Well I've made up my mind to try and play it safe in 09, but we'll see what happens. I am moving 100% today. F is already down about 1.5% this morning, so I'll buy low. Also Analysts have said that due to the holiday shopping consumer spending levels have been inflated. The monthly report for January should show a more realistic level of consumer spending, which I have read will be bearish. I am going to wait and see what happens before I start jumping into stocks.

Reuben