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RangerDave
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 216 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 3:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Everglades National Park
Reputation: 111.3  votes: 3
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 Back out, or hang in???
The futures, this morning, are up a little. Do we bail today before 1200, or do we hang in there and chance more upside later in the week? Everyone is calling for a 10% correction! We have only seen 2 to 3% since last Fri. Is that it? Lots to ponder before 1200. Any thoughts?
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:32 am |
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chief04010
Joined: 25 Aug 2008
Posts: 55 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Port Manatee, Palmetto, FL
Reputation: 31.5   
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 Guessing Game?
I'm going to see how the market reacts for the first hour or so before I decide to move, but as it stands now I'm leaning toward staying in for at least another day. If the S fund were to go above 460 I'd move back to the G fund. That doesn't look like it's going to happen before 1200 and probably not today at all.
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:53 am |
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YoungMind
Joined: 23 Jul 2009
Posts: 52 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 PM Country IP:  Chosen Flag:
Reputation: 13.6  
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 what to do...
I am seeing some negative technicals...but not all across the board. Some indicators say sell...but it looks a bit like mid May and only a temporary slump. My finger is on the trigger also.. for myself, I a going to hang in there until my charts tell me (alas, usually just a little late) to bail.
A lot depends on when you got in.. a bit of a down turn is ok if you got in early...but if you just jumped in, that makes it a bit more difficult.
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 10:56 am |
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RangerDave
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 216 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 3:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Everglades National Park
Reputation: 111.3  votes: 3
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 When in...
Went in, from all G, yesterday at close. Purely a trading play and am still deciding whether to bail back to G or stay in today.
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 11:10 am |
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RangerDave
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 216 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 3:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Everglades National Park
Reputation: 111.3  votes: 3
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 Chief
I see your move. I see 460! I just eased out, 70%, of my real TSP. I think I'll do the same in Fantasy. I'll leave my 40% in I. Might move it all out tomorrow!
Good call!!!
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:03 pm |
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jeffvan1
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 447 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag:
Reputation: 179.1  votes: 6
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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Should be some more upside (Wed/Thur) "hopefully"!!! Options expire on those two days. I went 60% in on Monday and set a target date of August 20 to back out.
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:18 pm |
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crondanet5
Joined: 19 Aug 2008
Posts: 520 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag:
Reputation: 139.7  votes: 9
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 have you guys
looked at the TSP Charts & Returns on this web site? Did you look at the interaction between the C, S, and I Funds with the five day ema? Do you follow the comments of the evilspeculator.com where he suspects a 20% rise in the markets is at hand? Or are you listening to the chatterboxes on CNBC who are part of the alliance to rip people's money away from them by keeping the masses in a panic? You have to maintain financial discipline to weather this anomaly in the movement of the markets. That, and I sincerely recommend you subscribe to the Ebb Chart guy's premium service. He's not worried, and he has the charts to prove it. You have to wait for a real downturn to use an IFT under this draconian 2 trades per month rule. I just wish the top fed people would come to realize how they are screwing themselves out of a wonderful retirement. Oh, well......
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:39 pm |
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RangerDave
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 216 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 3:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Everglades National Park
Reputation: 111.3  votes: 3
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 RE-have you guys
Wait, wait. I didn't understand any of that!!! So far I think all of us made a pretty good play. Chief hit his mark at 460 and bailed, making a tidy 2ish% gain in one day, Jeff is thinking there is more upside and remained 60% in, all others who went in, stayed in, and I bailed 60% but left 40% in to catch a pop tomorrow, which looks like will happen due to oil bouncing $3.00 after hours. All in all I think it went pretty well. I try, as I think you do too, to manage my fantasy as I do my real TSP. It is my retirement and I need to take advantage of a likely pop, yet play as safely as possible. Give me more than above, expand a little, because I do respect your opinion, I'm just not sure what your meanin'. And I agree about CNBC but I'm not going to stop watching Michelle Caruso-Cabrera!!!
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| Tue Aug 18, 2009 10:38 pm |
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jeffvan1
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 447 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag:
Reputation: 179.1  votes: 6
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I don't follow either crowd. CNBC is a group of perma-bulls and EvilSpec is a perma-bear. All talking heads. +
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| Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:47 am |
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McLovin
Joined: 24 Oct 2008
Posts: 101 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Norfolk Virginia
Reputation: 214.4  votes: 3
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 I think Monday was a bump. I'm going to try to avoid...
the white noise and hold on until early September. I have kids so back to school
purchases are on the horizon and end of the summer vacations (or staycations) should
allow the market to continue to move forward. Look for a down turn early September.
I know many are beggin for a drop to jump in well I hope they got the invitation this week.
We are moving forward. 10% drop 3rd week of September. Get out before September 11.
Mcl
_________________ "What we do in life echoes for an eternity" Maximus from Gladiator
"Without knowledge and understanding good decisions are only lucky guesses" McL
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| Wed Aug 19, 2009 8:35 am |
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McLovin
Joined: 24 Oct 2008
Posts: 101 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Norfolk Virginia
Reputation: 214.4  votes: 3
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 Early market indicates Chief and Ranger made nice moves. If
I drops big again do you guys still have IFT's to capitalize on another swing?
Mcl
_________________ "What we do in life echoes for an eternity" Maximus from Gladiator
"Without knowledge and understanding good decisions are only lucky guesses" McL
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| Wed Aug 19, 2009 9:10 am |
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RangerDave
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 216 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 3:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Everglades National Park
Reputation: 111.3  votes: 3
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 IFT'S
Nope, I'm done for the month. That is why I chose, yesterday, to leave 40% in the I. I was hoping for some additional upside. I'm looking at the markets now and am wishing I pulled all out as did Chief. We will see what the day brings, I may pull it out today or start easing it out.
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| Wed Aug 19, 2009 9:23 am |
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McLovin
Joined: 24 Oct 2008
Posts: 101 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Norfolk Virginia
Reputation: 214.4  votes: 3
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 I'm hanging in I Dave.
If you do the same I think we will be pleasantly surprised early September. However,
don't do it becasue I say so, make your own analysis. I'm treating this like a Bull market.
Mcl
_________________ "What we do in life echoes for an eternity" Maximus from Gladiator
"Without knowledge and understanding good decisions are only lucky guesses" McL
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| Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:08 am |
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jeffvan1
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 447 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag:
Reputation: 179.1  votes: 6
FantasyTSP Trophies: 2( View all...)
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 re: recommend you subscribe to the Ebb Chart
Your joking, right ???? Ebb-Chart has a present loss of -2.73% for 2009, a loss of -17.85% for 2008 and a gain of +20% for 2007 (note: in 07 I could have hung a Wall Street Journal stocks page on the wall, thrown darts at it, and made 20% gains off the picks). Ebb-Charts Green-buy / Red-sell chart system is the most idiotic investment system I have ever seen next to "AstroMarketing" (Astrology analysis of the markets).
For any Ebb-Chart fanatics out there I'm going to do you a favor and its cost free. Go 20-G, 20-F, 20-C, 20-S, 20-I on allotments and bi-weekly contributions for the next ten years. You WILL outperform Ebb-Chart
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| Thu Aug 20, 2009 1:37 pm |
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chief04010
Joined: 25 Aug 2008
Posts: 55 User's local time: 2010 Sep 09 - 2:06 AM Country IP:  Chosen Flag: 
Location: Port Manatee, Palmetto, FL
Reputation: 31.5   
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Gee Jeff, don't sugarcoat it, tell us how you really feel about the Ebb chart.
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| Thu Aug 20, 2009 3:06 pm |
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