Stocks are not climbing, at least for now. We're moving most of our money to the money market, just to be on the safe side.

By the way, the performance of our Core ETF newsletter is now independently verified.

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Disclaimer.Not a registered investment advisor. Does not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.©2009-2010 Peaceful Gains,LLC.

I'm looking at the 10,20, and 50 day ema's for all 3 stock funds and they are all in up trends.

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Guy

can change overnight depending on what the value of the dollar does. I highly recommend you follow the dollar trail on ino.com which is constantly updated. In addition, if you have been following CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, the currency traders have been talking about increasing the value of the dollar. Now here is the neat part: The money people raise the value of the dollar, then the Fed drops it, and in between the money people shorted the dollar and make a ton of money when it drops again. Meanwhile, our funds have all dropped in value and despite rising again, we never seem to get the value out of them that was there before the drop. In my real TSP I went 100% G. But I am using the fantasy TSP to practice things, and used a December IFT to get into the S and I, so I'm leaving it there to see what happens. Others went 100% F, but I can't see it. Good luck. Does ART stand for Air Reserve Technician?

retiredART,

There are different ways of measuring trend. I use my own method, not SMA or EMA. Stocks have some potential for growth, that's why I am not completely out of them. But the mostly sideways movement makes them seem too risky to me, so I am in G for the most part.

crondanet5,

Myopia, following what happens in "the markets" day by day, can be counterproductive. Also, I would ignore all the talking heads / "experts" / salesmen on TV. It's all in the price.

Happy trading.

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Disclaimer.Not a registered investment advisor. Does not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.©2009-2010 Peaceful Gains,LLC.

Crondanet5,
yes ART is Air Reserve technician.
I don't undersatnd about the dollar, it has been in a down trend since march, now it's stating to turn up? So what does that mean and how does it affect the s&p 500? the s&p has been in an uptrend since march.

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Guy

It my belief that when the dollar goes up so does the S&P. I think when there is more foreign investment in the S&P that increases the demand for the dollar which makes it go up. I would be interested in knowning more about the different variable as to the relationship.

and at Dover with C-5A and B's. Both bases had outstanding ART programs, great people, very dedicated professionals. Now for the dollar. Go to the evil speculator.com Dec 8 posting to see his take on the dollar and where it might go. There is probably a web site somewhere out there you could follow the inverse relationship between stocks and dollar value but I don't know it. But the evil speculator shows the huge amount of analysis on the value of the dollar and what it might do based on its daily movement. Peaceful-B I know about the experts. Regret I did not have time to dabble in my margin account with my current favorite stock today: it bounced 20 cents from my predicted low. I deal in 10,000 share transactions. So it would have resulted in maybe a thou gain, I'm not greedy. And that's why I don't try to over guess the TSP program: it's tilted by the 2 trade restriction-- you cannot succeed as you can by trading stocks in a real world brokerage account. In fact, I am planning to move my TSP account into a self-directed 401k brokerage account when I retire so I can make it grow like my brokerage account has, one trade at a time. But back to the active funds of the TSP: all are affected by the rising value of the dollar as it reduces the number of international buyers of US stocks, and thus reduces volume, and then makes us afraid the other shoe is about to drop so we stop trading too.

mmiller17,

Yes and no. Yes, it makes sense that when the dollar goes up, stocks (as measured by the S&P 500 or some other broad index) should also generally go up. Should and generally.

My question is not whether this statement is true, but whether it is useful. You are attempting to predict the future return from S&P 500. To do this, you do two things. FIRST, you predict the future return from the dollar. SECOND, you predict the future relationship between changes in the value of the dollar and the value of stocks.

Your final prediction (future return from stocks) is accurate only if both of the intermediate predictions are accurate. If your prediction about the dollar is wrong, or if your prediction about the relationship between the dollar and stocks is wrong, then your final prediction is in question.

You have some method for predicting the future return from the dollar. You COULD use that same method to simply attempt to directly predict the future return from stocks, which is what you want to know anyway. Yes, you could still be wrong. But this reduces the chance for error, since you are taking out the intermediate predictions.

Thus, my view of statements such as the one that you've made is that, while they might be true, they are not necessarily useful.

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Disclaimer.Not a registered investment advisor. Does not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.©2009-2010 Peaceful Gains,LLC.

In the last 4 weeks (Nov 16 to yesterday) the Dow has advanced 1.13 pts. With the market in a sideways trading range, why take exposure to downside risk if the upside potential isn't worth it? Looks like money markets is the correct place to be.

You are doing the opposite of your post, Jeff, by getting out of cash. Makes sense to me. <grin>

DDH1 wrote:

You are doing the opposite of your post, Jeff, by getting out of cash. Makes sense to me. <grin>

lol, I’m so confused. When the market was in the tank, it was a no-brainer, all-in and enjoy life. Now it’s intimidating especially when everyone is getting out, two weeks before Christmas.

LOL Yeah, I know. I expected to see some feedback on this. I'm betting on a very short duration Santa Claus rally and looking to gain another 1% before year end. Its a greedy move and risky but I'm taking the position that mutual fund and financial managers will do some window dressing for their funds starting next week so they can close the year out with solid looking portfolios.

If I can get the 1% gain then great, if not, then I'm satisfied with the double digit close-out.

until BRAC closed the 939th 3 years ago, and I had enough time in to take the early retirement.
I'm staying in stocks for now, but watching them closely. I'm going with the 10,20, 50 day EMA's for now . C and S are still in an uptrend, I is starting to turn down, the 10 day EMA croseed below the 20 day.

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Guy

And besides, I gotta try and get the monthly trophy for Dec. I haven't gotten one yet this year. Pathetic !!!!

jeffvan1 wrote:

And besides, I gotta try and get the monthly trophy for Dec. I haven't gotten one yet this year. Pathetic !!!!

Me neither, and I'm running the damn site! Even more pathetic

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TSPking

Truth is treason in the empire of lies ~ Ron Paul