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TSP Center Data Call for week of December 11, 2016:            

TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
13,631 members, 34 online
Newest member: lakerguy1
December 10
Now I'm really confused
by  United States n.shift | 2 Comments

I thought the s fund was directly related to Dow jones stock. How can DJ be up .72% and s fund lose .03%. Right when you think thanks are starting to make a little sense...BAM!




December 09
Look at the moves today
by  United States bad70nova | 8 Comments

Looks, like lots of individuals making the move today back into the market. I wish I had moved about 5 days ago, but was scared and sat in the safe fund. Hopefully this ride up continues thru the end of the year as I am in till then. Not sure where to go come 1 Jan I may just play it safe and move to F for a bit. Congrats to everyone that has made the right moves this year, there are some great gains for a lot of people. I made some bad decision and timing, by not staying :oops: in when I should (OK GOT SCARED). I know don't think just do!!




December 08
I Fund
by  United States dseery | 3 Comments

Can some of our more learned colleagues expound on the merits of being in I fund. 11 of the top 20 on the leader board are currently 100% in I. Many thanks! D




December 08
Do Moving Averages Work for Investing?
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 2 Comments

Hey everyone,

I came across a fascinating article by Price Action Lab Blog. What are your thoughts?

Below is an excerpt of the article. Here's the link:
http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/09/jim-simons-trend-following/

Quote:
Jim Simons is Correct About Trend-Following
In this article I include evidence that was not explicitly presented in a recent TED interview of Jim Simons, where he said that trend-following stopped working long ago. In fact, short-term trend-following was arbitraged out in the 1980s.

Among many other interesting things, Jim Simons, who is a mathematician and a billionaire hedge fund manager, made the following statement in this interview (10:55 minutes from start):

“Trend-following would have been great in the ’60s, and it was sort of OK in the ’70s. By the ’80s, it wasn’t.”

Some trading forum members declared that Jim Simons does not understand trend-following. That was really curious to me. It’s like saying that Niels Bohr did not understand quantum mechanics for which he received the Nobel Prize. If there was a Nobel Prize for trading, Jim Simons would have probably received one.

What is trend-following?
Trend-following means different things to different people but it is important to understand that most trading and investment terms adapt to current market conditions and paradigms: they are as non-stationary as prices. A different kind of trend following was applicable in the 1960s and a different kind is applicable nowadays. Those who applied trend-following in the 1970s chose their models after analyzing the past and those who apply it nowadays choose their models based on different data.

Therefore, the only indubitable claim one can make about trend-following is that it is a trading method with gains that are much larger than losses. Anything else goes into the realms of particular market conditions. Notice that this definition applies even in intraday timeframes. There is no rationale for restricting trend-following in daily or weekly timeframes. However, in this article we will look at daily data because this is what longer-term trend-followers use.

Definition
Trend-following is a trading method that produces an average gain much larger than the average loss

Conclusion
Jim Simons is right that trend-following is dead long time ago and the non-believers should only question their own experience and knowledge of the markets. As for those who promote curve-fitted systems as viable methods for people to invest their life savings, I can only remind this: historical performance is no guarantee of future returns, especially if it is curve-fitted to the data.





December 07
another newbie request.
by  United States n.shift | 16 Comments

Sorry, I have read so much the last 3 days/nights its all starting to blur together. Are these the most up to date seasonal mixes? if not, where can they be found? thanks a bunch
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix
Jan: S Fund
Feb: S Fund
Mar: C Fund
Apr: C Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: C Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: S Fund

timboslices:
Jan: f Fund
Feb: c Fund
Mar: s Fund
Apr: i Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: C Fund
Nov: s Fund
Dec: S Fund




December 06
where to expect stock market to go under these circumstances
by  United States n.shift | 19 Comments

moving my original statement from another post here. It was getting off target from my original post. I think with Trumps tax reform, deregulation, investments in infrastructure that we are going to see the "s" fund/smaller companies benefit the most. If this is correct, wouldn't it make more since to invest in the s fund? Or is this just wishful thinking? Also, what can I expect inflation to do to the stock market? here is a very likely scenario in the not to distant future. I am almost certain this will happen but I don't know what to do about it. Trump is almost certainly going to put a 35% tariff tax on companies over seas to bring products in. The only option companies will have is to move back to the united states, which will be unlikely or increase cost of their product which is more likely to happen. With this, we can expect revenue for the federal government to increase but also see a big spike in inflation which would almost certainly be countered by rising interest rates to try and cool the economy down. If I am wrong on this PLEASE let me know because this wrong thinking will ruin my retirement. lol.. NOW, with that said, my confusion is what do I expect from the stock market? where would my money be better off at?




December 06
S Fund
by  United States - Washington DC NotSoGood | 17 Comments

Can the S Fund really keep going up??? I keep waiting for it to pull back. Trying to decide when to go for safer grounds. Don't want to be caught flat on my feet!




 
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TSP Share Prices for Dec 9, 2016
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.1651 +0.01% +1.67%
   F Fund $17.3571 -0.36% +2.37%
   C Fund $31.1240 +0.59% +12.92%
   S Fund $41.7797 -0.03% +18.57%
   I Fund $24.4917 +0.16% +1.65%
   L 2050 $16.4034 +0.28% +9.16%
   L 2040 $28.7821 +0.25% +8.32%
   L 2030 $26.9162 +0.21% +7.39%
   L 2020 $24.5129 +0.14% +5.62%
   L Income $18.4062 +0.06% +3.56%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)