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TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
--- Member Statistics ---
12,018 members, 30 online
Newest member: Bhall59052
September 01
TSP Forcast for 31 Aug - Pvt Snaffu
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 14 Comments

I'm Done with my Family business out of town... What'd I miss????

My position: 50/50 G/S-Fund. Considering 100% F..

AGG / F Fund:... Both Fast and Slow STO's are below 20... good position for positive movement.. MACD is high and may be turning down.. not sure how to read that one.. price could move positive, but with not as much momentum.

SPX / C Fund:... At first glance, I thought this might be a rest at the mid point thru a positive retracement.. but then realized, the down swing had no rest... So, the positive swing last week may have been the rest for the downward movement from the previous week.. (OUCH) If that's the case, then look for another 200 point drop on the S&P.. MACD is low and may be turning up.. could be same as with AGG, just letting off some steam.
- If my initial idea is correct, and this is just a resting stop, a day or two neutral or down days are to be expected,, then continue back up near where this last down swing started..

DWCPF / S Fund:... Same as C Fund.. if we don't have an up day soon, look for a 100 point drop here..

EFA / I Fund:... Ditto..

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

I Watched Tradesmarts vid from Sunday... Their overall position is early Sept will dip again to recent lows, maybe lower... Then rally to about levels of mid Jul for a retest.. If it doesn't hold, watch out sub basement.. If the FED's increase rates, it could be just enough to push it over..

Summary... AGG looks ready for positive movement, C, S & I STO's are neutral to neg, As of 0100 Eastern, DOW premarket is -250.. but lately that moves a lot in the mornings.. I think Fri or Yesterday was the day to get out for a bit.. I hate burning an IFT just to go F-Fund.. We'll see what the next day or two brings..

August 31
Volume spikes
by  United States fishbone | 4 Comments

There are huge volume spikes early in each trading day on the S&P... is there a way to find out if these are from many investors buying or selling or if it is from just a few large transactions? Also, is there a way to know if these were buy or sell transactions? Basically I want to know if large powerful investors are buying or selling the market and possibly which ones if that is public knowledge.

August 27
For the Longs (or Those Who Got Caught)
by  United States Heckler511 | 4 Comments

I'm almost certain I'll be getting out today. I was really hoping to get back to even on the year, however:

1) I think there will be a short setup this week - either today or more likely tomorrow afternoon

2) I think we chop through much of September and volatility stays high for a couple weeks (i.e. we don't get back to previous highs...yet)

3) I'm going out of town tonight and likely won't be able to make any moves tomorrow (plus I could use the rest - these last several days have been difficult if you're in the market still)

4) Any other thoughts... what am I missing? :?:

August 26
Rate Hike or More QE?
by  United States Reese99 | 14 Comments

A simple question, really. Does the Fed move forward with a rate hike in September as promised (and I posit that recent action is pricing in a rate hike), or do they chicken out and prop the markets up for a while longer with a new round of QE?

August 26
Descending triangle forming?
by  United States - Virginia TSPKip | 2 Comments

In the 15 minute chart of the SPY over the past 6 market days suggests the development of a Descending Triangle which if holds within the upper trend line may be the harbinger of a further decline.

August 26
Fantsy TSP
by  United States simple | 4 Comments

Does the fantasy TSP act just like the real one? As in can only make 2 moves a month, but can always move back to G?
Thanks in advance,

August 26
Please forgive my previous bullishness
by  United States Secpon | 8 Comments

Forgive me father for I have sinned. I got into the C-Fund during the most bearish months of the year when all indicators were screaming for a correction, and I had next to no idea what I was doing. I violated the first commandment of thine only son Warren Buffet, who said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," or something like that. I put my faith in the media, who all said this is good for a bull market, and I let the devil himself, Jim Cramer, whisper poison in my ear.

I'm cutting my losses and moving to the F-Fund. A VIX golden cross occurred yesterday, and the S&P 500 is trading so far below it's moving averages, with the relative strength index and MACD all indicating a downward trajectory. An S&P death cross is almost a foregone conclusion if you ask me. A couple more days and we're in bear country.

My only hope is that the S&P regains some territory tomorrow before the transfer goes through, so I can maybe, just maybe regain 1% or 2% of my piddly TSP.

God help us... everyone.

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TSP Share Prices for Sep 1, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.8120 +0.01% +1.34%
   F Fund $16.9322 +0.09% +0.78%
   C Fund $25.6151 -2.95% -5.71%
   S Fund $34.8964 -2.65% -3.86%
   I Fund $23.5732 -3.37% -2.66%
   L 2050 $14.4476 -2.55% -3.42%
   L 2040 $25.6299 -2.24% -2.84%
   L 2030 $24.2486 -1.95% -2.25%
   L 2020 $22.5847 -1.50% -1.37%
   L Income $17.4919 -0.59% +0.24%
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AGG (F Fund)
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Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)