Stephen722 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 20, 2024 6:42 am What tool is this?

See https://tspcenter.com/technical.php

A tool I've just pulled out of the box. It is similar to SAR, except that it doesn't change when price moves in the direction opposite of the current trend. Still trying to unpack it. Advice appreciated.

One factor was that while S&P500 on opex fridays were only up 40% of the time, that doesn't necessarily apply to mid/small cap indices (e.g. S fund). To that point, per my TASPCALC start, selling S on the 12th trading day in Feb. almost always falls on opex and that has quantifiably resulted in...

End of January seasonal trade: Mutual funds and other institutions often receive an inflow of cash just as a new year begins. They invest some of that cash immediately, which is why the market often rallies in the first few trading days of January. However, to some extent, they approach the end of t...

McMillan's system buys Puts for 2 Feb on the 8th & 12th trading days of January This is consistent with many Seasonal Strategies which switch from bonds to stocks around the 10th TD. Wouldn't that be the opposite? Buying puts on sale right before the expected stock price decline is bearish. Bon...

Concur on BB. yet another indicator saying we should be in for at least a slight pull back. It would be unusual for BPNYA to pop back up from the 60 level. It happened in spring of '20, but that was right after the pandemic crash, not after an ATH. I’m waiting for a shoe to drop but we keep melting...

Taking a look at some other Bullish Percent and Breadth indicators. Bama, Nice set of charts. When I add Bollinger Bands to define Quartiles over the long term, e.g. BB(250,0.675), I note that the NYSE Bullish percentage is still in the upper quartile. BPNYA 25Oct23-24Jan24.png Looking back over th...

OK...I got ambitious and downloaded the daily returns from the tsp.gov web page. I worked up an updated S fund chart through the end of 2023. Have a look, if you see something that looks off let me know. I will work on the C fund chart once I get some confirmation that this looks correct. When comp...

The current S&P charts and technical indicators show some resemblance to late August/early Sept 2020. Attached is the S&P chart in August/Sept 2020. The NAAIM index peaked on Aug 26 before the market topped six trading days later on Sept2. After which the market pulled back for the next few...

The NAAIM index came crashing lower this week which is a positive sign for bulls. The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by big money managers. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and ...

A little more Breadth came into the market as well. NYSE, SPX, Mid and Small Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum indices fell again yesterday - as they have since 29 Dec 23. NYSE IT Breadth Momentum & $DWCPF S&P IT Breadth Momentum & $SPX Mid-Cap IT Breadth Momentum & $DWCPF Small-Ca...

So I’m currently in year 4 of a 20 year home loan locked in 2.3%, as of today I currently owe $140K. My home value has almost doubled in the last 4 years, as I’m in an area of Florida that is becoming very popular for young families, with safe neighborhoods and A+ rated public schools. I’m 7.5 year...

The plan is to have the house paid off at age 52, and use those next 10 years of freed up funds to absolutely murder my TSP. Is your mortgage rate higher than annual rate of return you've been getting from the TSP? If not it would be better to invest your excess cash into retirement savings to allo...

there is usually a market correction in the middle of January (after the initial new deposits have been invested by institutions), and it is most evident in tech stocks. from https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240111942/beware-the-january-defect-stocks-are-now-in-a-bearish-stretch McMil...

Today's bounce was on relatively LOW volume compared to the recent pullback days and most importantly LOWER volume than the largest pullback on Dec 20 That might explain why large, mid and small-cap breadth momentum declined while their respective indexes soared. +SPX breadth momentum 9Oct23-8Jan24...