My question would be, is today a good day to "sell high", hope for some sort of dip and then back in for any Santa Rally?

I'm also a little worried about the Fed raising rates in December. Seems like that would be a good time to be in G fund.

Thoughts? Advice?

I wonder sometimes if the competitive goals of keeping high positions on the leaderboard outweigh the desire to share information and strategy and if the leaders "keep their cards close to the vest". I enjoy talking about the market and speculating on what may come next...I'm sure that's ...

Anyone heard of any plans to convert a portion or all of our current TSP balance (traditional) to the ROTH option and then from here on out we have the option to put all of our yearly contribution to ROTH so essentially it will totally tax free at retirement? If they did this it would be fully tax ...

As always, it's a real pleasure to read your posts, Tomanyiron.

Hi Relevant,

Thanks for doing this. It's a real boon to the TSP community!

Hi Tommie, Do you have any indicators telling you that we've found a bottom in oil prices? As I understand the situation, OPEC is actively trying to crush American fracking, and it seems like, while that avalanche of job destruction has begun, it hasn't finished yet. I'm not claiming to have any rea...

We all know this market has been artificially propped up by multiple rounds of QE, and then further propped up by large companies performing massive buy-backs of their stock using low-interest loans from banks (figuring that the interest rate they pay is going to be lower than the stock gains they c...

Could you explain what your 1 to 10 scale indicates? Is 1 less likely a top than a 10? Is the 3.33 rating posted here, therefore, a 'low risk' of a top? Thanks! I really appreciate you sharing some of your methodology with us. It's really helpful to see how other people are viewing events in the mar...

Actually, looking at the charts from October 2013, it looks like a shutdown doesn't do much to the markets. It looks like (and please correct me if I'm wrong) things were basically flat until the Government re-opened and then there was a rally. There wasn't a big sell-off before/during the shutdown,...

In my opinion (and remember that I am TERRIBLE at predicting market actions), the hawkish position of not raising rates is what is priced into the market right now. Current Vegas odds on a rate increase are 23%. What that tells me is that there isn't much upside to the market if the Fed stays put, b...

A simple question, really. Does the Fed move forward with a rate hike in September as promised (and I posit that recent action is pricing in a rate hike), or do they chicken out and prop the markets up for a while longer with a new round of QE?

As I understand the oil market (and please jump in and correct me if I'm wrong here), OPEC refused to reduce their pumping in light of increased supply (US production) and decreased demand (general global financial malaise). OPEC is deliberately bottoming prices to attack the US fracking industry. R...

One wonders if the Federal Reserve won't just step in with a QE4 the moment the market shows any real weakness. I can't spot any policy or political shifts that would changes the Keynesian approach to monitary policy. My stupid predictions for the year? More record highs based on a complete absence ...

Ebb, I hope this gets said so much that you can just ignore my comment and move on, but THANK YOU for posting your analysis here. It's been really interesting reading it and also having a historical thread to compare to actual market results. I really appreciate the work you put into your posts.

I moved 100% into L2050 at COB yesterday, after sitting in the G fund for the last month or so. (I no longer have the stomach for the pure S or C funds.) I'm hoping there's a shoulder coming up to complete this head-and-shoulders pattern, so even if I didn't time it at exactly the bottom, I think th...