TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

[CSI]

Brilliant!!! Thanks TSPking

[Sarah]

.

[TSPking]

Hi Sarah,

The sample allocation provided does not include I Fund because I only have historical returns for I Fund going back to 2001. I thought it was more important to demonstrate the strategy using the full 22 year TSP history excluding the I Fund versus only 8 years with the I Fund.

The Seasonal Calculator does work with I Fund however. If allocating any amount to I Fund, the calculator will still work but will only calculate returns from 2001.

This allocation model is demonstrated using the full 22 year TSP history, not the past 10 years.

I agree that past performance does not guarantee future returns.

[Sarah]

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[TSPking]

Sarah. Please let me know where I can get monthly historical return data for MSCI EAFE.

Thank you...

[Sarah]

.

[CSI]

I would also like to see the inclusion of the I Fund, I think it would improve the performance of the strategy. It’s also interesting that the Seasonal Strategy would outperform the TSP funds during any 10 year time frame from its inception, but maybe this is true of most investment plans created from backtesting.

[theodorb]

TSPking, how risky is this strategy (volatility, drawdowns)? Also, I'm concerned about putting 100% of my retirement savings into a single stock fund, even if only for a few months a year. Do you know of any strategy that is more diversified?

[crondanet5]

Sarah's suggested web site mscibarra.com? Does it help you tech types make better decisions?

[docrings]

So how did this strategy perform for 2010?

[TSPking]

Currently +11.93%: http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?uname=Seasonal

[FGTBOGSAT]

The U.S. dollar will collapse by 2013.

Gold and silver (real money) are your best bets for safety.

[FGTBOGSAT]

The U.S. dollar is just fiat paper and will be worthless soon.

Buy gold and silver (real money) for safety.

[crondanet5]

What good is it to buy gold and silver? If I go to the store how do I exchange an ounce of gold for a candy bar? Gold would have to be set up in small coin fashion to work, and that just mimics the U.S. dollar. But if I buy shares of GLD or SLV and they go up in value, then I have made a good investment. The only thing is they can also go down, and once the European governments reassure the markets that the EU is not collapsing I expect gold and silver to fall rapidly. I would not recommend investing in gold or silver to anyone unless they do diligent research first and set up stop limits on their investment. Other than that, I'm paying in U.S. currency. This is not the first call for the dollar to collapse nor will it be the last.

[Jahbulon]

Will the EU be able to continue to prop this thing up? I don't think so. I think we are headed for a crash.