TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

What's new at TSP Center as well as discussion of features that are due to launch shortly.

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CSI
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Post by CSI »

Brilliant!!! Thanks TSPking 8-)

Sarah
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Post by Sarah »

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Last edited by Sarah on Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TSPking
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Post by TSPking »

Hi Sarah,

The sample allocation provided does not include I Fund because I only have historical returns for I Fund going back to 2001. I thought it was more important to demonstrate the strategy using the full 22 year TSP history excluding the I Fund versus only 8 years with the I Fund.

The Seasonal Calculator does work with I Fund however. If allocating any amount to I Fund, the calculator will still work but will only calculate returns from 2001.

This allocation model is demonstrated using the full 22 year TSP history, not the past 10 years.

I agree that past performance does not guarantee future returns.
TSPking

It's a gift...and a curse ~ Adrian Monk

Sarah
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Post by Sarah »

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Last edited by Sarah on Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TSPking
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Post by TSPking »

Sarah. Please let me know where I can get monthly historical return data for MSCI EAFE.

Thank you...
TSPking

It's a gift...and a curse ~ Adrian Monk

Sarah
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Post by Sarah »

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Last edited by Sarah on Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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CSI
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Post by CSI »

I would also like to see the inclusion of the I Fund, I think it would improve the performance of the strategy. It’s also interesting that the Seasonal Strategy would outperform the TSP funds during any 10 year time frame from its inception, but maybe this is true of most investment plans created from backtesting.

theodorb
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too risky?

Post by theodorb »

TSPking, how risky is this strategy (volatility, drawdowns)? Also, I'm concerned about putting 100% of my retirement savings into a single stock fund, even if only for a few months a year. Do you know of any strategy that is more diversified?

crondanet5
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Has anyone checked out

Post by crondanet5 »

Sarah's suggested web site mscibarra.com? Does it help you tech types make better decisions?

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docrings
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by docrings »

So how did this strategy perform for 2010?

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TSPking
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by TSPking »

TSPking

It's a gift...and a curse ~ Adrian Monk

FGTBOGSAT
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by FGTBOGSAT »

The U.S. dollar will collapse by 2013.

Gold and silver (real money) are your best bets for safety.
Last edited by FGTBOGSAT on Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

FGTBOGSAT
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by FGTBOGSAT »

The U.S. dollar is just fiat paper and will be worthless soon.

Buy gold and silver (real money) for safety.

crondanet5
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by crondanet5 »

What good is it to buy gold and silver? If I go to the store how do I exchange an ounce of gold for a candy bar? Gold would have to be set up in small coin fashion to work, and that just mimics the U.S. dollar. But if I buy shares of GLD or SLV and they go up in value, then I have made a good investment. The only thing is they can also go down, and once the European governments reassure the markets that the EU is not collapsing I expect gold and silver to fall rapidly. I would not recommend investing in gold or silver to anyone unless they do diligent research first and set up stop limits on their investment. Other than that, I'm paying in U.S. currency. This is not the first call for the dollar to collapse nor will it be the last.

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Jahbulon
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized

Post by Jahbulon »

Will the EU be able to continue to prop this thing up? I don't think so. I think we are headed for a crash.

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Fund Prices2022-08-12

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.99 0.01% 1.51%
F $19.10 0.37% -8.58%
C $65.23 1.74% -9.34%
S $70.95 1.86% -14.97%
I $34.16 0.59% -13.39%
L2065 $13.19 1.35% -11.37%
L2060 $13.19 1.35% -11.37%
L2055 $13.19 1.35% -11.36%
L2050 $27.11 1.14% -9.72%
L2045 $12.43 1.07% -9.06%
L2040 $45.65 1.00% -8.33%
L2035 $12.13 0.92% -7.53%
L2030 $40.66 0.84% -6.69%
L2025 $11.70 0.58% -4.50%
Linc $23.03 0.35% -1.93%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".