TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
FGTBOGSAT is right.
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Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
Forget the propaganda about the safety of the U.S. dollar ...
The paper U.S. dollar is not a safe haven!
Buy physical gold and silver today.
The paper U.S. dollar is not a safe haven!
Buy physical gold and silver today.
Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
The following is related to Seasonal Strategies:
1. Related Article: "Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001"
Weblink: http://seekingalpha.com/article/584621- ... aily&ifp=0
The above article describes a seasonal strategy of being in stock funds for 5 months and bond funds for 7 months of every year as follows:
JAN-FEB: Bond Fund
MAR-APR: Stock Fund
MAY-SEP: Bond Fund
OCT-DEC: Stock Fund
Using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): SPY (S&P 500) & TLT (Long Term Bonds), the author's result was an average return of 15% a year from 2002 to 2012. NOTE: The closest TSP funds would be the C Fund (S&P 500) and F Fund (Aggregate Bond Index).
The author's 15% average return is particularly notable in that his approach is subject to stock market risk only 5 months of the year, and is invested in the safer bond fund the other 7 months.
2. TSP FUNDS: Here's the results from 3 variations of inputs using TSP Funds and the Seasonal Calculator:
(1) USING C FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & C Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 14.34% (since 1988).
(2) USING S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & S Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 13.96%% (since 1988).
(3) VARIATION - 4 MONTHS IN C FUND, 1 MONTH IN S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months), C Fund (Stock Fund, 4 Months: MAR, APR, OCT, NOV), S Fund (Stock Fund, 1 Month: DEC) gives an average annual return of 15.77%% (since 1988). NOTE: Tried this variation because Small Cap Stocks often do better than Large Cap Stocks in DEC.
RESULTS: For only 5 months of Stock Market risk annually, this method returns 13.96% to 15.77% annually (since 1988), depending on whether you use C, S, or a variation of the two as the Stock Fund - just something to consider.
Best Regards,
Sptms2086
1. Related Article: "Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001"
Weblink: http://seekingalpha.com/article/584621- ... aily&ifp=0
The above article describes a seasonal strategy of being in stock funds for 5 months and bond funds for 7 months of every year as follows:
JAN-FEB: Bond Fund
MAR-APR: Stock Fund
MAY-SEP: Bond Fund
OCT-DEC: Stock Fund
Using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): SPY (S&P 500) & TLT (Long Term Bonds), the author's result was an average return of 15% a year from 2002 to 2012. NOTE: The closest TSP funds would be the C Fund (S&P 500) and F Fund (Aggregate Bond Index).
The author's 15% average return is particularly notable in that his approach is subject to stock market risk only 5 months of the year, and is invested in the safer bond fund the other 7 months.
2. TSP FUNDS: Here's the results from 3 variations of inputs using TSP Funds and the Seasonal Calculator:
(1) USING C FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & C Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 14.34% (since 1988).
(2) USING S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & S Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 13.96%% (since 1988).
(3) VARIATION - 4 MONTHS IN C FUND, 1 MONTH IN S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months), C Fund (Stock Fund, 4 Months: MAR, APR, OCT, NOV), S Fund (Stock Fund, 1 Month: DEC) gives an average annual return of 15.77%% (since 1988). NOTE: Tried this variation because Small Cap Stocks often do better than Large Cap Stocks in DEC.
RESULTS: For only 5 months of Stock Market risk annually, this method returns 13.96% to 15.77% annually (since 1988), depending on whether you use C, S, or a variation of the two as the Stock Fund - just something to consider.
Best Regards,
Sptms2086
Fund Prices2026-04-15
| Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
| G | $19.83 | 0.01% | 1.22% |
| F | $21.03 | -0.14% | 0.69% |
| C | $112.75 | 0.81% | 2.96% |
| S | $106.53 | 0.40% | 6.09% |
| I | $61.41 | 0.10% | 10.67% |
| L2075 | $11.76 | 0.50% | 6.01% |
| L2070 | $13.46 | 0.50% | 6.02% |
| L2065 | $22.71 | 0.50% | 6.02% |
| L2060 | $22.72 | 0.50% | 6.02% |
| L2055 | $22.72 | 0.50% | 6.02% |
| L2050 | $43.70 | 0.41% | 5.18% |
| L2045 | $19.68 | 0.38% | 4.94% |
| L2040 | $70.98 | 0.36% | 4.71% |
| L2035 | $18.46 | 0.33% | 4.44% |
| L2030 | $60.36 | 0.28% | 3.90% |
| Linc | $30.00 | 0.14% | 2.60% |