TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
FGTBOGSAT is right.
@GlobalCollapse on Twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/GlobalCollapse
http://twitter.com/#!/GlobalCollapse
Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
Forget the propaganda about the safety of the U.S. dollar ...
The paper U.S. dollar is not a safe haven!
Buy physical gold and silver today.
The paper U.S. dollar is not a safe haven!
Buy physical gold and silver today.
Re: TSP Center Seasonal Strategy Revisited and Optimized
The following is related to Seasonal Strategies:
1. Related Article: "Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001"
Weblink: http://seekingalpha.com/article/584621- ... aily&ifp=0
The above article describes a seasonal strategy of being in stock funds for 5 months and bond funds for 7 months of every year as follows:
JAN-FEB: Bond Fund
MAR-APR: Stock Fund
MAY-SEP: Bond Fund
OCT-DEC: Stock Fund
Using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): SPY (S&P 500) & TLT (Long Term Bonds), the author's result was an average return of 15% a year from 2002 to 2012. NOTE: The closest TSP funds would be the C Fund (S&P 500) and F Fund (Aggregate Bond Index).
The author's 15% average return is particularly notable in that his approach is subject to stock market risk only 5 months of the year, and is invested in the safer bond fund the other 7 months.
2. TSP FUNDS: Here's the results from 3 variations of inputs using TSP Funds and the Seasonal Calculator:
(1) USING C FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & C Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 14.34% (since 1988).
(2) USING S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & S Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 13.96%% (since 1988).
(3) VARIATION - 4 MONTHS IN C FUND, 1 MONTH IN S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months), C Fund (Stock Fund, 4 Months: MAR, APR, OCT, NOV), S Fund (Stock Fund, 1 Month: DEC) gives an average annual return of 15.77%% (since 1988). NOTE: Tried this variation because Small Cap Stocks often do better than Large Cap Stocks in DEC.
RESULTS: For only 5 months of Stock Market risk annually, this method returns 13.96% to 15.77% annually (since 1988), depending on whether you use C, S, or a variation of the two as the Stock Fund - just something to consider.
Best Regards,
Sptms2086
1. Related Article: "Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001"
Weblink: http://seekingalpha.com/article/584621- ... aily&ifp=0
The above article describes a seasonal strategy of being in stock funds for 5 months and bond funds for 7 months of every year as follows:
JAN-FEB: Bond Fund
MAR-APR: Stock Fund
MAY-SEP: Bond Fund
OCT-DEC: Stock Fund
Using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): SPY (S&P 500) & TLT (Long Term Bonds), the author's result was an average return of 15% a year from 2002 to 2012. NOTE: The closest TSP funds would be the C Fund (S&P 500) and F Fund (Aggregate Bond Index).
The author's 15% average return is particularly notable in that his approach is subject to stock market risk only 5 months of the year, and is invested in the safer bond fund the other 7 months.
2. TSP FUNDS: Here's the results from 3 variations of inputs using TSP Funds and the Seasonal Calculator:
(1) USING C FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & C Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 14.34% (since 1988).
(2) USING S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months) & S Fund (Stock Fund, 5 Months) gives an average annual return of 13.96%% (since 1988).
(3) VARIATION - 4 MONTHS IN C FUND, 1 MONTH IN S FUND (STOCK FUND): Using F Fund (Bond Fund, 7 Months), C Fund (Stock Fund, 4 Months: MAR, APR, OCT, NOV), S Fund (Stock Fund, 1 Month: DEC) gives an average annual return of 15.77%% (since 1988). NOTE: Tried this variation because Small Cap Stocks often do better than Large Cap Stocks in DEC.
RESULTS: For only 5 months of Stock Market risk annually, this method returns 13.96% to 15.77% annually (since 1988), depending on whether you use C, S, or a variation of the two as the Stock Fund - just something to consider.
Best Regards,
Sptms2086
Fund Prices2025-07-15
| Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
| G | $19.21 | 0.01% | 2.40% |
| F | $20.04 | -0.28% | 2.87% |
| C | $99.34 | -0.38% | 6.90% |
| S | $92.88 | -1.52% | 3.02% |
| I | $49.30 | -0.65% | 17.66% |
| L2075 | $10.02 | -0.62% | 0.16% |
| L2070 | $11.47 | -0.62% | 10.07% |
| L2065 | $19.35 | -0.62% | 10.06% |
| L2060 | $19.35 | -0.62% | 10.06% |
| L2055 | $19.35 | -0.62% | 10.05% |
| L2050 | $38.00 | -0.53% | 8.88% |
| L2045 | $17.22 | -0.50% | 8.52% |
| L2040 | $62.49 | -0.47% | 8.15% |
| L2035 | $16.38 | -0.43% | 7.72% |
| L2030 | $54.12 | -0.39% | 7.27% |
| Linc | $27.99 | -0.18% | 4.66% |