newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

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SteveNavy
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:22 pm

newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

Post by SteveNavy »

newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History
Hi folks,

Please see this page on the website http://tspcenter.com/dataCall.php
The headers of the seven columns are:
Week Of % Bulls % Bears B/B Spread B/B Ratio Best Fund(s) Worst Fund(s)

My QUESTION is on the intended meaning of the LAST TWO columns on the right, please.
You see, I found this expanded chart of data by following the link under the Member Weekly Market Outlook at this page http://tspcenter.com/index.php and labeled as "History."

My confusion arises from the change in labeling that the website applies to this data (on the last two columns) when transitioning from the snapshot/thumbnail or current conditions to the historical archive page. The terminology appears to change from "Preferred Fund" & "Shunned Fund" into "Best Fund(s)" & "Worst Fund(s)."

Now there are many ways to interpret the meaning and usage of common English words. However, none of these terms appears defined here, at least so far as I can see. One would reasonably expect the link to "History" from a snapshot would simply expand the very same data, yet more of it and presented into a longer timeframe.

So now with this change of terminology, I am confused!

Here are some possible interpretations for/of the terms as used herein. "Preferred" might mean either the fund with largest average members' allocation on Sunday, as a snapshot. [BTW just the Fantasy folks or some different data source??]. Or instead, "Preferred" might mean the fund(s) experiencing the largest percentage inflows via IFT over that respective week, and so measured on Saturday, the week-end. Two different yet related ways to measure and report fund allocation/preference.

On the History page there is "Best Fund." Is this the members' favorite in allocation, as paragraph above OR is this the Best Performing fund in terms of price performance (in percentage, of course)?? -- Clearly, the former is based upon a snapshot sometime within that week, while the latter is determined by the market close on the respective Friday.

Similar questions may be asked for the "Shunned" and "Worst" pairing. But hopefully, my politely asked question is well stated and clearly conveyed already.

Thank you very much for a truly wonderful website!
Stephen

crondanet5
Posts: 4324
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

Post by crondanet5 »

You can get the same data by going to the window on the right side of this page titled "Member Weekly Market" and clicking on "History". I think it is useless as it represents the funds that most members are in for the month, not the most profitable fund. And since we are restricted to 2 IFTs per month you cannot nimbly move from best fund to best fund. TSP as a means of receiving a deferred pay raise is nice, but after getting that deferred pay raise there are better options to put your money.

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SteveNavy
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

Post by SteveNavy »

crondanet5 wrote: You can get the same data by going to the window on the right side of page titled "Member Weekly Market" and clicking on "History".
Yes exactly, via the links in original topic post. That's how I found it too! -- That data is the subject of this post & my question.
crondanet5 wrote:I think it is useless as it represents the funds that most members are in for the month, not the most profitable fund.
This is the question asked. Thank you! :)

Clearly the data as labeled is ambiguous and yet I remain confused.
However, one does ask politely - please even - how/where did you learn this? Please explain or share more?

How did you learn this, please??
crondanet5 wrote:And since we are restricted to 2 IFTs per month you cannot nimbly move from best fund to best fund. TSP as a means of receiving a deferred pay raise is nice, but after getting that deferred pay raise there are better options to put your money.
Again, yes agree! -- But for now, I/we must do the best that I/we can with these very limited choices imposed upon me/us.

It does remind me of my time as a soldier. One really never stops that mindset. And so, I wish to excell, even despite the hardships you cite.

I suppose that reading/seeing the detailed explanation or original source for myself would be all that one wants. -- Where is that?

Thank you Crondanet for this kind response and hopefully further follow up details.

crondanet5
Posts: 4324
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

Post by crondanet5 »

The answer to where this data came from is as follows. In those days when this web site was being developed the IFTs of Fantasy Players were tabulated to provide information where the Players were putting their money. I don't find the data useful because the population involved is too great to be meaningful and the results can be skewed if a significant portion of the group makes an IFT to a given Fund because a Top Player did probably based on a flawed Seasonal Investment program. We just saw this happen with the F Fund and the I Fund. This is not to say that these funds have had good results in the past. The question is are they the right Fund for today and tomorrow? I believe a better investment indicator is the Fund charts at the bottom of the page examined as far out as 5 years. Hope this helps.

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SteveNavy
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: newbie question on Member Outlook, Data Call and History

Post by SteveNavy »

crondanet5 wrote:The answer to where this data came from is as follows. In those days when this web site was being developed the IFTs of Fantasy Players were tabulated to provide information where the Players were putting their money. I don't find the data useful because the population involved is too great to be meaningful and the results can be skewed if a significant portion of the group makes an IFT to a given Fund because a Top Player did probably based on a flawed Seasonal Investment program. We just saw this happen with the F Fund and the I Fund. This is not to say that these funds have had good results in the past. The question is are they the right Fund for today and tomorrow? I believe a better investment indicator is the Fund charts at the bottom of the page examined as far out as 5 years. Hope this helps.
Oh goodness! You're right. That data collection strategy is not scientific at all. Agree completely. Thank you!

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Fund Prices2022-08-05

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.98 0.01% 1.45%
F $19.05 -1.07% -8.80%
C $63.14 -0.15% -12.24%
S $67.93 0.74% -18.59%
I $33.31 -0.76% -15.55%
L2065 $12.78 -0.24% -14.10%
L2060 $12.78 -0.24% -14.10%
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Linc $22.85 -0.12% -2.72%

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