Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Discuss your individual FantasyTSP account allocations, returns, and strategies.

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Tomanyiron
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Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

Welcome to my FantasyTSP Account topic...
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tom Anyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

Transfer to the S-erious fund
I thought I should explain myself, I have been in G-arage waiting on a trend change. I have decided that a short term view also has potential. :idea: There are always some up-legs that are within the down trend. I now have a sub-system within my major system.

I see a short-term bottom and a few signs of a pre-bounce, Mon & Tue . Instead of catching a falling knife, I like to think of it as catching it on the first bounce. :? It’s important to know that this is risky, and not for the faint of heart. I may have to take an allergy pill to help me sleep the next few nights.
Cron and everyone who have me on their contrarian watch list, I'm giving you a heads up. :wink:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by crondanet5 »

Contemplating what I should do. :shock: :roll: :?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

In case you missed it, there was a bounce that began Fri, and continued through today. IMO it is merely a short term oversold adjustment that should be fairly short-lived. Therefore I’m taking an almost as risky move to the F-ickle fund for a few days maybe. Then hunker down in the G-ot no IFTs fund and wait for June, and/or the situation to get better. Don’t hold me to anything, because this is just a “guesstimation”

Markets can be cruel, don’t let it be cruel to you.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

What the heck just happened? :shock: I’ll tell you what, I misjudged it. :oops: Small caps are taking a beating, a day earlier than I thought. (And on a Tuesday, that’s three in a row) I thought I could beat the bear, with this little pattern recognition.

I did the right things but on the wrong days. :x And I got cut by that bouncing knife.
Of the people who had me on their watchlist, I only had two or three who weren’t using me for a contrarian. Now I lost them. :cry:

I can't see all of you, F-n-Gs but I’m sure you’re smiling. :D
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by crondanet5 »

It was the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. That dude likes to capture headlines the day before the fed releases its statement, and if you are a fan of the television show The Good Wife, you might be Machiavellian enough to think he might be trying to influence what Dr. Yellen says tomorrow. IMHO. Tom, I know you are new at this, but if you are going to be a short term S Funder and the market is up at 1145 on Monday, IFT the heck out of the S next time. I guarantee you it will go down on Tuesday for some reason. Now the question is what happens tomorrow afternoon? Hope your stay in the F Fund is a pleasant one. :arrow:

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

crondanet5 wrote:if you are going to be a short term S Funder and the market is up at 1145 on Monday, IFT the heck out of the S next time. I guarantee you it will go down on Tuesday for some reason.

Thanks I will look in to that, never heard it before.
Well it did come up some off the low, so I'm not in the red YTD. But I can't make many mistakes like that. :|
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by crondanet5 »

I don't do that well researching, but my mind seeks out patterns to exploit them. So the pattern I remember would involve researching the Tuesdays of the week before Fed meetings. I believe you would find most end down, and then Wednesday stocks rebound. I have no proof of this, maybe there's an engineer or market guy in the group who would find it interesting to research and report their findings. If I am right we may have found another anomaly to include in the Seasonal Strategy and maybe a modifier for the buy and hold crowd. For instance, if the TSPer had 2 IFTs on Monday of Fed meeting, and the market goes up, they get out of the S Fund. If the market does not go down but on Tuesday it goes up, the TSPer gets out of the S Fund in anticipation of bad news coming out of the fed meeting and the big guys on Wall Street entice small investors Wednesday morning to jump in before the big guys sell off. IMHO. Needs research. I would be the first in line to learn if I'm right or confused on this topic. So let's see what the research uncovers. BTW, I'm in a longer S Fund hold cycle so I kind of grin and bear these sideshows waiting for the S to get to my IFT point. That's why I did not get out on Monday.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

My mind is constantly looking for high probability transfers. And I have decided there aren’t any. There are “calculated risk”, and 55/45 percent of success is probably the best I can ask for.
So what is the “calculated” part of a move to the S fund on Monday?
On the S fund chart or one of its proxies ($EMW or VXF) the shorter term moving averages (everything under 20) has started to turn up. The Slow STO is over 80 and imbedded. The CCI and MACD are in positive areas, (some may say over-bought). I don’t know if we can use “over-bought” as a deterrent after the last 16 to 18 months. And for the last 4 days or so, price has been bumping along just above or below the upper Bollinger band. Which, I might add has an upward slope. And did I say we are getting some higher highs, and higher lows for the past week or so?

Now switch over to a chart of (!VMCSUMSML) S&P Small Cap Volume Summation Index. I like calling it a long term indicator. It looks even better (add the Parabolic SAR overlay to help see what I’m talking about). And it does not have the over-bought look to the CCI and MACD. It has (look for your self) a history of calling the tops and bottoms well.

Now I don’t want to suggest that nothing can go wrong. And making a move into the S now could not turn out to be the dumbest move in 2014. It could be another May 2012, “all over again”.

So Monday’s price action (before noon) could add more evidence to the plus factor, or cancel-out some of the good signs. I reserve the right to “wait-n-see”. And I would be lying if I did not say I will also be watching the transfer list. It would be stupid of me to not watch what others are doing up to the 11:45 to 11:50 time period. A many a dollar has been made here at TSPCenter by doing just that and nothing else.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

Moved to C-ommon Man's Fund. It's got the strongest tailwind pushing it, the divergence of S and C funds has resumed, and in recognition of bamakcl, Eric385, and raym0826.

Also I kina like the way the $SPX is climbing that channel between the 5-day SMA and the upper Bollinger Band.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

100% F-unny fund. Going into the weekend, I would rather be out, wanting to get in, than being in wishing I was out. I’m thinking short term pullback next week. Other that a move from F to G, I’m out until July. LoL everyone.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

Sorry Sig for me waiting so close to the deadline. I was working on it up to the last minutes. I'm glad I did give you enough time to follow.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Lafrinere
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Lafrinere »

I see you are going all F (dropping stocks and going all bonds). Expecting some sort of stock market drop, or a bonds increase? I understand the whole "buy low and sell high" thingy, but what are you (and evidently quite a few others) lookin at? What's your sell signal here???
Michael

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Tomanyiron »

Michael, I'm just thinking overbought, (Market running up fast without a breather). It may pullback next week or not. The pullback may extend longer. A bird in hand is better.. kinda of thing. Nothing wrong with letting profits run, I'm a "Medium Risk Tolerance" guy, so I made a "Medium Risk Tolerance" type move. Your Medium Risk Tolerance is in the order of diverse allocations. Mine is, all in when things look good, and all out when things start to not look good, (or look too good).
You know by now, it's not one size fits all right. Everyone is guessing, some are just a little better at detecting clues than others. And until you get good at detecting clues it's best to "error on the side of caution".
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

bgbearnavy
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Re: Tomanyiron's FantasyTSP Account

Post by bgbearnavy »

Mike,

I am a BEAR that takes advantage of market fear and greed cycles, the greed is strong once again. I will enjoy their FEAR when the rug gets pulled out from under them, and I get another "discounted" price at the bottom...

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".