TSPking's FantasyTSP Account

[TSPking]

This isn't based on any sound investment strategy, only emotions. This roller coaster is too much to bear.

100% F

[Steve0]

Noooo. Its going to go up just one more day.


Anyway thats what i been telling myself. Everyday I have my finger on the change allocation button but I talk myself out of it.

[TSPking]

It wasn't an easy decision and one that I've been thinking about but too scared to act on for weeks. If I miss a short term rebound, then so be it.

I will be getting back in at some point, but probably not 100% in equities.

[TSPking]

I'm getting out ahead of the holiday weekend. The nikkei was up over 4% yesterday yet the I Fund didn't feel it. I'm hoping the Fair Value adjustment today will make up for it and allow me to hold on to a 2%+ gain for this allocation.

50% G, 50% F COB today

[TSPking]

Don't follow me if you think I know what I'm doing. I'm basing this short term move on emotions and the fact that the equity funds may be down 4% percent in 4 trading days.

50% C, 50% S

[crondanet5]

I've been tossing the F fund around in my head all day. Only I believe this market is so weird that the S Fund will make a comeback. As soon as my money is clear, I might just join you in the F, or say 50% G, 50% F, then work back toward a 100% G. Did anyone see Nightly Business Report last night (Tuesday). Hilary Kramer said there's a big drop ahead. So I'm hoping either this is it or I can get out of the S before the BIG ONE occurs. BTW: EBB Chart is 50% C, 50% I. I'll bet he's crying tomorrow morning. Actually, he's much more interested in playing stocks short than he is twiddling with his charts (which he has found pretty accurate for predicting many individual stock movements), except for Black Swan days like this. King, I have some ideas for you. Will send by Private message for you to peruse.

[TSPking]

I'm hoping to get back to the sidelines this week if the market cooperates. I should have moved yesterday but was greedy hoping the hype over the Fed bail out was going to last a bit longer and not looking foward to using my one roundtrip IFT so early in the month.

But, given the following concerns I think it will best sitting out the rest of September if I can:

1. Earnings continue to be horrible
2. Home prices still falling
3. Consumer prices rising
4. Unemployment rising
5. Largest bail out ever just occured
6. Consumer credit at lowest points
7. Oil at 105.00 per barrel
8. More write downs coming
9. Hugh debt payments coming due for financials
10. Global slowdown occuring

[TSPking]

Well going 100% C yesterday was a foolish move. I can only hope that the bailout is voted on tomorrow, passes, and that the market rallies. I will then get out. This market is just too brutal right now.

[ReubZee]

Tell me about it. I think we were a day early.

If the market spikes tomorrow, I don't know if I should get out. I don't want to miss a rally by using up my IFTs. And we come full circle, these are difficult times due to the IFT restrictions!!!! Ahh oh well.

[TSPking]

Still fully invested at this point. Despite having an almost 30% loss YTD, I'm ahead of of the C/S/I funds by at least 7%. I want to keep it that way which is why I've been scared to get out. I may move to the G Fund as we get closer to the end of the month but for now I'm sticking it out.

[TSPking]

Moving to the G Fund for a couple of days. I'm still looking to ride this out since I've already taken a 20% hit this month. But, I'm taking a gamble that the market holds true for today and then pulls back over the next few. I'll be getting back in on Nov 1 most likely.

I lose this gamble if the Fed disappoints the market this afternoon or if it pleases the market and the market sells on the news.

[TSPking]

I ended up staying in the G Fund for a little longer than I had originally planned. We'll see if getting back in the market today was a good idea soon enough. C, S, and I lost between 5%-8% while I was out. I'm not in a position to risk missing a rebound so I decided to appreciate the losses I missed and join the fun again

35% C, 35% S, 30% I

[TSPking]

I managed to not lose money in November which is a start

100% G today.

[TSPking]

I'm starting 2009 90% G, 10% F. We've had a strong rally in December which I was lucky enough to get a small piece of.

I finished 2008 with a -24.48% return. In a bull market, I would normally consider beating the S&P by over 12% as an outstanding investment year. I'm not sure the same holds true for a bear market

[TSPking]

Well I should have got out yesterday, and I wanted to. But I was on TAD travel and couldn't make the change in time. Hopefully I won't get punished to bad for this missed opportunity...