Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Discuss your individual FantasyTSP account allocations, returns, and strategies.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Welcome to my FantasyTSP Account topic...
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Websites that related to option for the beginner to advance:

http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Art ... lained.htm
http://www.optionmonster.com/education/

Trading Info:
http://whatstrading.com/about/
http://www.crowderoptions.com/
http://www.thechartlab.com/

I learn the most start out with TNA/TZA, FAS/FAZ, F fund (AGG) & I fund (EFA) at
http://seekingalpha.com/ - that I received articles related to stocks, eft and the people I follow.
And this is one of my favorite article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/312012- ... nd-insight
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

BodhiDrool
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:12 pm

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by BodhiDrool »

Thanks Winner. I've been reading your back and forth with all the help, and my mind spins! If you get a chance I'd like to hear your comments on this article "Historic Volatility Divergence from Implied Volatility as a Broad Market Sell Signal":
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/72523 ... urce=kizur

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

I'm not trade base on VIX (alone) vs SPY, but I will follow this idea. Currently I have similar to this article 1:4 CALL/PUT open = 1 call for every 4 put.

Most of my options trades are base on the following:

1. MA (50) & MA (200)

2. Technical Indicators: Year-to-Date Percent Return
-Total percentage return, year-to-date. This is calculated by taking (current stock price-stock price at the beginning of the year)/(stock price at the beginning of the year) X 100

3. Support/Resistance from past price level
-Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. Support and resistance levels can often be developed from fundamental events and /or be created after reversals in price action. Price levels that sometimes act as support and/or resistance are previous support levels, previous resistance levels, previous highs, and previous lows.

4. Sentiment Indicators: Short-term Scorecard
-The short-term scorecard is a proprietary rating system that considers a stock’s price action and sentiment backdrop. It incorporates various data for a stock over the last three months, including its overall return, overbought/oversold status, sentiment among options players, and short interest statistics.

5. Equity VIX Percent Range
-This metric places the current SVI reading into historical context by comparing it against previous readings taken during the past year. A high percentage indicates a high level of volatility being priced into the options. A low percentage indicates a low level of volatility being priced into the options.

6. Buy (to Open) 10 Day Put/Call Ratio
-This ratio reflects the number of puts bought to open, relative to calls, on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) during the past 10 trading days. A high 10-Day BTO P/C on an uptrending stock can be bullish.

After one big win, then I'm going with my gut feeling with small amount (usually $50 or less) that I willing to risk up to $100 for a chance to gain several thousand %.

FAS (XLF) still look good - I may consider buy ITM call spread for some protection on FAS Dec 17 at 54/55 strike for net debit of $.80 for potential profit of $.20 or 25%. FAS current trade above $63
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

BodhiDrool
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:12 pm

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by BodhiDrool »

Thanks again. I'll check out your links and get learned so hopefully I can understand these moves.

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Skiehawk11,
I'm glad that you like this article http://seekingalpha.com/article/312012- ... nd-insight, this is a day trade and it worth to follow and you master this to collect $600 to $1000 is not problem since most of the stocks in this article swing average more than $3.00 as he aim to profit between $.60 - $1 per contract.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

BOUGHT CALL TNA 43/46 spread & TBT 18/21 spread for this week expiration for potential over 100% each.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

User avatar
flight23
Posts: 1342
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by flight23 »

Youre expecting the market to go up from here? This was the 4th failed test of the 200DMA... I would be careful.
@GlobalCollapse on Twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/GlobalCollapse

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

TBT - potential support at $19 and the priced near the bottom third of all readings taken during the past year.

SwingTradeOnline.com - Jack's Wrap:
"It's all about S&P 500 1225 and 1265. That large gap up-day when the Dow was up 490 points with the Nasdaq up 104 points is acting as strong support on pullbacks for now. Large volume was part of that huge up-day, meaning big money supported it. It won't be easy to get that money to back off and stop defending that move. It's going to fight for sure. With the action today I think 1265 is likely to get taken out before 1225 gets taken down. No guarantees, of course. No one knows what news will come out from abroad but the action suggests 1265 is first. If we can clear that then we try to move back to the old highs at 1293, and then possibly 1325. That will be really tough to get to, but we shall see. For now, I think long exposure is best. Let's see if the bulls can finally make the move next week. The action in some stocks today gives hope."

This is one of the two that I respected for their trading records. Here is Jack's records http://www.swingtradeonline.com/service ... rmance.php

crondanet5 and anyone that trades only stocks may want to sign up for 21 days free trial. I gained more than enough money to cover the monthly fees within the 21 days of free trial and gained over $1.5k within 45 days, but this is not for me since I refer to trade with less captial. I learned how to read charts mostly from him.

So far both trades are positive.

I'm currently learning FOREX since it's open 24 hrs.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Sold TBT this morning for negative $20 lost on commission and sold TNA for profit $.50 or 41% this morning - I'm happy with one day profit. As S&P close above 1225 & test my luck & bought TZA Put within seconds of the closing bell (last trade of the day).

Sold most of my PUT and current holding currently have 1/3 in option with the most is in DE put 82.5/77.5 and waiting for expiration to collect the maximum $5 spread and may consider $.10 less for over 100% profit with 2/3 in cash.

Paid more than $6K on commission fees.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”


User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

At Etrade: $7.99 commission (Trades 150+ per QTR) + $.75 per option contract and it add up. I usually trade with 10 contracts and for spread that = 20 contracts, butterfly = 30, butterfly condor or iron condor = 40. My November statement shows a total securities purchased over $1.2M (I'll have this amount some day) from JAN-NOV.

I'm looking to purchase a house and will close my regular account at Etrade when I could find a home. It tough to find a single family home with 3 bedrooms for the payment between $2.5K-$3K in Irvine or Fountain Valley area. I have to raise some cash by reducing TSP to 5% to start with different brokerage next year to save on commission fees that will be extra cash.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”


User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Open another TZA butterfly CALL, may open another Put at later on for more proctection of either direction of the market.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

User avatar
Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: Winner's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Winner »

Bought TZA put $30 strike at $.65 and get out of TZA call for break even.

Also bought FAS 57/62 spread for $1.89
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".