Have a few modifications to start off the second half of 2020. And to reiterate, I’m a chart patterns watcher, not very technical and not much with methodical data analysis. Plain and simple, I look at the squiggly lines, and hunt for repeating patterns. Only after I see the patterns do I tackle the numbers.
The new chart will have 3 items “squiggly lines”.1- Friend
, (“The Trend is Your Friend”, and should be thought of before each IFT). This is a combination of the Push, Pull, and the Bullish Indexes into one indicator. The old charts needed some disentanglements, so I reduced these 3 to a "Keep it Simple, Stupid" easier to read line. The million dollar question, of course, was: what amount of each? Been working on that and I think I have a good formula. I did some ‘low-brow’ back-looking. Made sure some of the major pullbacks/corrections were looked at, (Feb-Mar this year, 2018, 2016, 2011, and the big one of 2008). I saw enough to proceed with this blend.
, (formerly Jump, with same formula), which uses Put/Call options to form a momentum oscillator that swings above and below a zero line. The basic principle is this; if the line is over (0) you’re good to be in stocks, but under (0) means stay out of stocks. Not as “crystal ballish.” as I first hoped but still logical.
3- S Fund
, the fund Du-jour of TSP, the place to be when stocks are humming. And the fund to avoid when they are not. My strategy is an all in or all out system. 100% S when I perceive stock prices are going up. 100% G when not.
The chart below is from Feb – May 2020. As you can see the Friend line is very smooth, but it is the actual numbers where the signals come from. The looking-back suggests a two day change of direction for a true signal.
And the big question is when did it say sell in Feb, (the change, not easy to see)? The sell signal was on Feb 19, (2nd day back-to-back down). And when did it say buy? That was Mar 26 (2nd day in a row up). The Jump was a little late to signal exit in Feb, but had a better buy signal in March.
Tomorrow, before the market opens, I will post the month of June, and July to date.