I am writing to mention my latest blog entry (tspindex.blogspot.com) which discusses a doomsday scenario for the dollar as published at Seeking Alpha (seekingalpha.com) by a newsletter writer based in Baltimore, MD. The newsletter writer's thesis likely lurks in the minds of many risk-averse investors (including yours truly) and is therefore unfortunately worth considering. As the 20th century's greatest philosopher (Yogi Berra, of course) tells us, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." So while I made a definite recommendation about how doomsday believers could respond in the TSP, I could neither refute nor support such a dire scenario.
Sorry for bringing this up. I had another topic in mind before I ran into the Seeking Alpha article.
Best wishes,
VII of IX
Doomsday Scenario Considered
Moderator: Aitrus
Doomsday is an understatement for that author's opinion.
While the dollar has declined significantly in recent years relative to the euro and yen, it’s got a ways to go to be described as collapsing. The likelihood of that happening rapidly is very slim. Why? Because foreign dollar-investors (China, Japan, Britain, Saudi, etc.) have too much to lose to let it happen:
Foreign investors of U.S. Treasuries according to USA Today:
While the dollar has declined significantly in recent years relative to the euro and yen, it’s got a ways to go to be described as collapsing. The likelihood of that happening rapidly is very slim. Why? Because foreign dollar-investors (China, Japan, Britain, Saudi, etc.) have too much to lose to let it happen:
Foreign investors of U.S. Treasuries according to USA Today:
Japan is first with $586 billion, followed by China ($400 billion) and Britain ($244 billion). Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries account for $123 billion, according to the Treasury.
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