How did your 2017 end up going?

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

greengrass
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:28 am

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by greengrass »

Midway wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:I love it when a palm comes together! :D
Would that be a High Five or Clapping? :lol:
There are some Monty Python tangents to be derived from here. :lol:
1,2,5

I'm up 25+% in my tsp but missed moves in fantasy like most.

WxMan0523
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 26, 2012 11:31 am

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by WxMan0523 »

Awesome!! 24.38%! And the one time I decided to let it ride out instead of cashing out, it cost me 3%. Another 20 years of that and I'll retire one happy camper.

droplogic
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:34 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by droplogic »

I did better than I thought, coming at 17.48% for the year. To be fair, I'm not sure if I'm calculating it correctly. I just took my current balance, subtracted all my contributions, and compared that to my beginning balance. I've no idea how to discount all of the interest I've made from the additional contributions over the year though, so who knows what the true return is.

I was in the G fund until June 15th, switched to the L2050 fund until December when I began following strategy #19269. I was doing the standard 5% per paycheck thing until June 15th too. Then, I started adding a specific dollar amount for the last half of the year so that I'd finish the year maxed out at the allowed $18k. Came pretty close, got to $17,990. Also put $5k into an IRA and $30k into a portfolio. I plan on following the same #19269 plan on both my IRA and portfolio via ETFs, or maybe leveraged ETFs, in addition to my TSP in 2018. Will see how it goes.

Gotta say, I'm super happy to have found this place. Sometimes insomnia+internet works in my favor lol.

Edit: I did a quick check using the TSP Center Charts & Returns page. I think a more accurate return for the year would be 11.14%, not accounting for reinvesting the profits or interest earned on my contributions.

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darmic3
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by darmic3 »

managingts wrote:How did you guys figure out your return right away? Ty
Well, I know my PIP last month was 22.22 and since I'm following strategy 16517 to the letter and can see that it earned 1.82 in Dec, I just added that to my 22.22 to come up with my current PIP of 24.04.
Currently Following Strategy #57171: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171

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evilanne
Posts: 1886
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by evilanne »

darmic3 wrote:
managingts wrote:How did you guys figure out your return right away? Ty
Well, I know my PIP last month was 22.22 and since I'm following strategy 16517 to the letter and can see that it earned 1.82 in Dec, I just added that to my 22.22 to come up with my current PIP of 24.04.
Sounds like you are double counting December if you are using the PIP from TSP which is for 1 full year. If so you would need to subtract out your return from December 2016 to get updated PIP

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darmic3
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by darmic3 »

Ahh, got ya. Good point. Now to rework my math.
Currently Following Strategy #57171: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171

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evilanne
Posts: 1886
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by evilanne »

You can use TSPCalc to enter the moves that you made last Nov/Dec and it will calculate Dec 2016 for you ;)

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Winner
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:40 am

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by Winner »

I'm up with 27% with tsp. I'm also up 35% in 3 1/2 months with IRA and Roth IRA after partial withdrawal (60%) from tsp.
“A brave man knows the circumstances and consequences of what he may encounter ahead…..but moves forward anyway.”

gclapper
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:04 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by gclapper »

Real account at 17.9339% for the year. Pretty damn good from the crap I was getting. Fantasy at 17.61% and the gclapper monthly seasonal is at 17.0257%. I am looking to switch to the daily 15533 plan this year and see how it goes. I am going to continue to watch the monthly but want to see how the daily goes this year.

MrSnrub
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:21 am

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by MrSnrub »

My PIP for the year is 26.70. I'll take that ANY day.
Nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future. Stop asking. Just shut up and follow strategy #90117 to glory.

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marine234
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:01 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by marine234 »

My real account is at 20.80, so i can live with that. I missed a few good moves this year and have been trying to stick to the 7980, but jumped 50/50 into the C&S today, as I can't see anything stopping them from gains the rest of the month. May go 100% S on the 18th. Guess I will find out if deviating a bit was a smart move or not.

winsprint
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:16 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by winsprint »

Real Account 25.71%

Scarfinger
Posts: 616
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by Scarfinger »

Real account: (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 12/31/2017 is 21.02%
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Following Daily Seasonal # 139921 as a general guideline.

Kal1981
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:12 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going? - Still work in 2021??

Post by Kal1981 »

I’m hoping someone smarter than me can help me understand seasonal strategies a bit better. I was looking at TSPcalc to sort through the high performing strats and notice that most are newer (higher strat numbers). So I decided to look at some older high performing strats to see how they’re doing. Most have underperformed a buy and hold in Subsequent years. What does this mean? Does seasonality change after a few years? If so, do we change strats every couple of year and how do we know when the switch to a new strat to take advantage of the new seasonality?

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Post by Aitrus »

In the first year or two of TSPcalc there weren't very many strategies compared to now. Since then there has been a lot of experimentation and playing around with different daily combinations, resulting in a higher number of strategies that perform well. Also, in the early days there was a bigger focus on higher returns and less emphasis on lower StdDev (lower volatility swings year-to-year). These days there's a lot more strategies that prioritize a low StdDev along with CAGR results. Some people even consider StdDev to be of higher importance than CAGR - they're willing to take a 5-10% hit on overall CAGR in order to have a super low StdDev because it means more consistent (and therefore more reliable) returns. For example, they might be very happy with a 20 - 25% CAGR with a StdDev down in the 2% range, and forego a 30+% CAGR with a 7% StdDev.

Keep in mind also that TSPcalc uses data from 2004 - present; a total of 16 full years (counting to 2020). That means that each individual year has 1/16th pull on any calculations, or 6.25%. When TSPcalc fist came online in 2017, there were only 12 full years of data (2004 - 2016). This means that each year had 1/12th pull (8.33%) on any calculations. In practical terms, what this means is that any individual year has a larger pull on the end CAGR or monthly calculations than you'd otherwise see, which would affect the experimentation combinations. As more time passes, more history is added, and the historical trends become clearer.

If you recall my Seasonal Musings posts, you'll remember that I present information in 5, 10, 20, and since 1988 timeframes. If you look back over the posts quickly, you'll see that the 20-year and since 1988 metrics don't change too much, but the 5 and 10-year timeframes are always changing. That's because the longer timeframe you assess data on, the more consistent the returns tend to become. By the time you hit 20 years, each individual year has just a 5% pull, and the "since 1988" timeframe has 32 complete years of data, or 3.125% worth of pull per each year. With any individual year having little sway, the aggregate averages outweigh any single individual up or down year.

In terms of TSPcalc, that means that what was once "good" days or weeks to be in X or Y Fund are now no longer "good", and the folks who are experimenting adjust fire accordingly. If you look at the lower-numbered TSPcalc strategies, you'll see that each month varied greatly. At present, a large number of the higher-numbered strategies have very similar months - sometimes identical - with very small variations overall. That's because the crowd-sourcing experimentation has sifted out worse performers and has elevated better ones. That's why not all the strategies used in 2017 have performed well, but some have.

TLDR: the less data you have, the more chance you have of being wrong of assessing what the long-term average represents going forward. With more data you get a better overall historical picture, trends become more clear, and your day/Fund mixes can become more fine-tuned.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

What else

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