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Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 1:08 pm
by Kal1981
Thanks Aitrus. As always your responses are super helpful. Do you think it’sustainable to consistently beat the market by 10-20%? What about reversion to the mean? And if the strategy of looking at historical data was this easy, how come WallSt or others haven’t capitalized on this?

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 2:48 pm
by bloobs
Kal1981 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:08 pm Do you think it’sustainable to consistently beat the market by 10-20%?
TSPCALC information proves it can be done for up to 17 years...and counting.
Kal1981 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:08 pm What about reversion to the mean?
Reversion to the Mean describes a statistical phenomenon wherein the further a result is from the "mean" of its past results the higher the chance it will snap back to this mean in a future result. So yes, reversion to the mean has been directly applicable to TSPCALC strategy results.
Kal1981 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:08 pm And if the strategy of looking at historical data was this easy, how come WallSt or others haven’t capitalized on this?
Shhh....

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 11:20 pm
by stilljammi
I started out obsessing for the strats with the highest means on TSP Calc, but then I started thinking about standard deviation and fell in love with that. I'm of the opinion that the main players in equities will oftentimes extend a wink to one another and generally buy and sell at the same time. They try to outgun one another for that extra few percentage points by beating each other by a day or a week, but half the decisions in the market are because "that guy did it yesterday." I don't think anyone has any actual insight into what's happening, even with supercomputers and millisecond trades, we still have "insiders" giving up billions on occasion. We'll need AI for some decent decision-making. But on average, the herd is smarter than most people. Get a group of people to guess how many jellybeans are in a jar. The larger the group, the better the estimate. Outlier strats will have eye-catching years, but will generally be unimpressive the rest of the time.

And yeah, Wall St. has been capitalizing on this for years. Why do you think they got so pissed off with that GameStop thing? Something out of their control was moving the price. That's a no-no.

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Posted: Wed May 05, 2021 10:04 am
by daemon
Can the admin of TSPCalc do a sort to find the top 10 strategies for ones with the highest CAGR and lowest STD? I think that's what most people would want.

Re: How did your 2017 end up going?

Posted: Wed May 05, 2021 10:46 am
by Midway
daemon wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:04 am Can the admin of TSPCalc do a sort to find the top 10 strategies for ones with the highest CAGR and lowest STD? I think that's what most people would want.
Unless I misunderstand your question, you can do this yourself with the filters on TSPcalc.