Mr. Perfect

General TSP Discussion.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Just one small change. Mr. Imperfect had to run to G due to all the funds bringing home a positive return on Friday.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/15 - #53120 90.73%
Mr. Imperfect - G to F on 11/8 to I on 11/15 to G on 11/16 - #53185 -50.52%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Yesterday caused an odd phenomenon. Obviously, Mr. Perfect had to run to G. But the funny thing is that Mr. Imperfect joined Mr. Perfect in S for two days. That often happens in G but not often in S. Yesterday's losses were enough for Mr. Imperfect to absorb the 1.5+% in gains the previous two days.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/15 to G on 11/19 - #53241 90.78%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 - #53244 -50.68%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

No question where Mr. Perfect is. Mr. Imperfect moved over to I Fund for now.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/15 to G on 11/19 - #53241 90.80%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 - #53272 -51.76%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

I missed Friday's update because I extended my Thanksgiving holiday. I hope everybody's Thanksgiving was wonderful. Mr. Perfect is on the edge of a change. He and Mr. Imperfect have gone to G. By the looks of things today it's temporary for Mr. Perfect at least. But as always temporary may also be temporary...

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/15 to G on 11/19 - #53241 90.85%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 to I on 11/20 to G on 11/21 - #53340 -51.75%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by 12squared »

fordest wrote:But as always temporary may also be temporary...
How many strategies does it usually take to get Mr. Perfect/Imperfect right by the end of each month?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

12squared wrote:
fordest wrote:But as always temporary may also be temporary...
How many strategies does it usually take to get Mr. Perfect/Imperfect right by the end of each month?
It varies a lot depending on volatility. But I would say that they keep the same strategy on average two days a week. So probably around 12 each. Of course twice now I have gone back into a previous month to make changes because one of them would find an advantage in starting the current month in a different strategy.

I guess I am helping Matt by adding about 25 strategies a month to his database. Not that Mr. Imperfect's are the most helpful strategies, but who knows, maybe one of them will come up the best strategy ever.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Mr. Perfect slid back over to S as expected. Mr. Imperfect just making money it what appears to be the best G fund in a long time.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/21 - #53505 93.50%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 to I on 11/20 to G on 11/21 - #53340 -51.74%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Both have moved to G. While G is a common ending fund for a lot of months, it still feels like both of them are close to the edge of change. But the market has to stop seesawing first.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/21 to G on 11/27 - #53705 93.51%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 to I on 11/20 to G on 11/21 - #53340 -51.74%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Mr. Perfect went back a day and cancelled his move to G. Yesterday was more than enough to absorb Tuesday's loss.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/21 - #53505 96.46%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 to I on 11/20 to G on 11/21 - #53340 -51.73%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

As expected when Mr. Perfect is in stocks and we have a negative day, he moves over to G. Mr. Imperfect is still there too.

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 11/8 to S on 11/21 to G on 11/29 - #54208 96.48%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 11/8 to I on 11/20 to G on 11/21 - #53340 -51.73%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Yesterday didn't need to do that just to entice Mr. Imperfect. Its the beginning of the month. Oh well... On the other side, Mr. Perfect broke the 100% mark!

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 12/4 - #54633 100.34%
Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 12/4 - #53637 -53.56%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

23V23C
Posts: 64
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by 23V23C »

Mr. Perfect, where have you been all my life? I needed you this year.

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

I have run into a problem. I have been using TSPCalc for something that it wasn't made to do. It has definitely made this process a lot more fun and I don't think I would have kept it up all year without it.

But here's my issue. TSPCalc was designed to be used on repeat. Not as a stand alone year. I need to use the last move in December to start the fund off in the correct fund in January. For example, Mr. Imperfect was in the G fund for the end of November. He needed to avoid the .35% in F, the 5.59% in C, the 5.94% in S, and the 3.52% in I. Then he needs to be in S on December 4 (move 1) then in I on December 6 (move 2). When the year started, he needed to start in F to be where he is today. He can't get back to F to start the year.

So the question becomes... Do I do this to see how high/low I can get with each trader? Or, do I do this to see how high/low of a strategy I can create?

I am going to do both. I will track the traders' progress, but I will also see whether it's more beneficial to each to take the bigger gains/losses in December or to make that last move to C/F respectively. So, in case anybody ever deep dives into this, be aware, that from here on out, the strategies displayed will not match the trader involved. Also, without TSPCalc doing my math, there will be a larger rounding error at the end of December.

Otherwise.... open to suggestions....

Mr. Perfect not affected by this yet...

Mr. Perfect - S to F on 12/4 - #54633 100.66%
#54957 --- Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 12/4 to I on 12/6 -55.09%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

User avatar
12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by 12squared »

fordest wrote:TSPCalc was designed to be used on repeat. Not as a stand alone year. I need to use the last move in December to start the fund off in the correct fund in January. For example, Mr. Imperfect was in the G fund for the end of November. He needed to avoid the .35% in F, the 5.59% in C, the 5.94% in S, and the 3.52% in I. Then he needs to be in S on December 4 (move 1) then in I on December 6 (move 2). When the year started, he needed to start in F to be where he is today. He can't get back to F to start the year.

So the question becomes... Do I do this to see how high/low I can get with each trader? Or, do I do this to see how high/low of a strategy I can create?

I am going to do both. I will track the traders' progress, but I will also see whether it's more beneficial to each to take the bigger gains/losses in December or to make that last move to C/F respectively. So, in case anybody ever deep dives into this, be aware, that from here on out, the strategies displayed will not match the trader involved. Also, without TSPCalc doing my math, there will be a larger rounding error at the end of December.

Otherwise.... open to suggestions....
Have you considered changing the ground rules so that both start in G on January 1?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mr. Perfect

Post by fordest »

Mr. Imperfect has left behind I in favor or C. Mr. Perfect is still liking F. Above problems still don't affect Mr. Perfect.

12^2,
I have considered that, but then I'm not really accomplishing the lowest/highest single year or creating the lowest/highest strategy. But it is another option.


Mr. Perfect - S to F on 12/4 - #54633 101.03%
#54957 --- Mr. Imperfect - G to S on 12/4 to C on 12/6 -55.99%
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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Fund Prices2022-06-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.93 0.01% 1.13%
F $18.60 0.02% -10.96%
C $58.12 -2.01% -19.21%
S $61.51 -2.03% -26.28%
I $32.40 -0.43% -17.85%
L2065 $11.97 -1.45% -19.56%
L2060 $11.97 -1.45% -19.55%
L2055 $11.97 -1.45% -19.55%
L2050 $24.96 -1.19% -16.87%
L2045 $11.50 -1.12% -15.88%
L2040 $42.43 -1.04% -14.79%
L2035 $11.34 -0.96% -13.58%
L2030 $38.22 -0.87% -12.29%
L2025 $11.20 -0.61% -8.57%
Linc $22.40 -0.34% -4.62%

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