Unusually high amount of fantasytsp transfers?

[psulion22]

I just looked and there was circa 140 pending IFTS in the fantasytsp for today with the majority going into S. I’m still new here but I can’t remember ever seeing this before. Are we all following the same seasonal strategy or is this just a coincidence!? Ha.

[bosco7]

Probably some seasonal adjustment based on whatever strategy most are following. However said strategy seems late to the game as they missed a 6+% runup this week alone...

[dseery]

Many are following TSPcalc.com Strategy #104319, or something like it. Move is to S today, then to F first week of June.

[danho]

Many are following TSPcalc.com Strategy #104319, or something like it. Move is to S today, then to F first week of June.

Ok, then along the same line of questioning, what in the real world is triggering most of the seasonals to go to F or G in June?

[TSPBuilder]

Many are following TSPcalc.com Strategy #104319, or something like it. Move is to S today, then to F first week of June.

Ok, then along the same line of questioning, what in the real world is triggering most of the seasonals to go to F or G in June?

danho,

I'm not sure if "the seasonals" are the strategies or the people using the strategies in your question. Regardless, my understanding is the strategies are based on historical daily prices of the Funds and then some statistical "wizardry" was done to show the highest returning Fund(s) for the month. Since I have seen a high degree of accuracy in it's probability, then this leads me to believe that the companies within the indexes manipulate the market and the market is independent, to a major degree, of the real world instances that people think make it fluctuate. The only reason I don't think the market is totally controlled is because occasionally, something like a Trump or Musk tweet, may cause a major 1 to 3 day blip in the market that doesn't see correlation in the strategies. I haven't verified this yet but I believe it is possible. COVID-19 is blamed for the severe downturn in the market but the strategies predicted the downturn within a three day window around 2/23/20 and the upturn (that most people can't understand why it is happening) that started on 3/24/20.

[crondanet5]

I attribute the rise of the markets to the ongoing activities of the plunge protection team. The drops are due to algorithmic programs shorting the market to artificially buy low then sell high.

The seasonals are based on historical data but what happens on a day to day basis in this stormy political time do not necessarily follow their indicators. I will say I feel safer in the S Fund now that Tomanyiron has gone G Fund. Thanks Tommie.

[Tomanyiron]

...I will say I feel safer in the S Fund now that Tomanyiron has gone G Fund. Thanks Tommie.

[crondanet5]

Naughty boy. Go walk the dog.

[danho]

danho,

I'm not sure if "the seasonals" are the strategies or the people using the strategies in your question. Regardless, my understanding is the strategies are based on historical daily prices of the Funds and then some statistical "wizardry" was done to show the highest returning Fund(s) for the month. Since I have seen a high degree of accuracy in it's probability, then this leads me to believe that the companies within the indexes manipulate the market and the market is independent, to a major degree, of the real world instances that people think make it fluctuate. The only reason I don't think the market is totally controlled is because occasionally, something like a Trump or Musk tweet, may cause a major 1 to 3 day blip in the market that doesn't see correlation in the strategies. I haven't verified this yet but I believe it is possible. COVID-19 is blamed for the severe downturn in the market but the strategies predicted the downturn within a three day window around 2/23/20 and the upturn (that most people can't understand why it is happening) that started on 3/24/20.

Yes, the seasonals I am referring to are the strategies on TSP Calc and we can reference #104319 for this conversation. This strategy, and several others for that matter, are looking to go to F or G for the month of June and I am looking at what is triggering that from all the data in the system. Is there a repeated moment in time that forces a market drop? Is it summer and trading is historically lower? Is there something in the market calendar that has not been favorable to stocks over the years?

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

I am looking to advance my knowledge and understanding of why the strategies that are doing well, and how their predicted IFT's correlate with the current market. Or in these days, is this a Tweet blip or other market swing that cannot be categorized?

I often see on this site that someone is following strategy X and "validating with real world info to make an IFT or hold off". I'll be honest, if the info is a series of charts and graphs with images embedded in them that you can only see if you squint, then I'm not there yet. I would like to hear if there is a moment in time that can be referenced on a calendar or something similar.

I also don't want to hijack this thread, so if it needs moved, please do so.

Thanks for reading, Dan.