99 Pending?

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Midway wrote:Shoulda followed Aston.
Yeah, who does that guy work for? There's something going on that we don't know about, he's got the inside scoop on stuff.

Aston, I've already got the word from the FBI members on the site. They will not press charges against you, if you tell us.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote:
Midway wrote:Shoulda followed Aston.
Yeah, who does that guy work for? There's something going on that we don't know about, he's got the inside scoop on stuff.
Or......maybe, just maybe he just is better at TSP investing than us--on account that he may have the magic methodology.


Anyways, I learned my lesson: if my own analysis gives conflicting signals--check Aston's IFT schedule.

Anybody wanna hear my terrifying prediction for the S fund this week?

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Seasonal strategies are having a hard time keeping up with these modern times.
bloobs wrote:Anybody wanna hear my terrifying prediction for the S fund this week?
Sure, what data are you basing your projections on? And are you going to make an exit before noon on Monday?
Last edited by Tomanyiron on Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

User avatar
userque
Posts: 658
Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 5:43 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by userque »

bloobs wrote:Anybody wanna hear my terrifying prediction for the S fund this week?
Of course.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote:Seasonal strategies are having a hard time keeping up with these modern times.
bloobs wrote:Anybody wanna hear my terrifying prediction for the S fund this week?
Sure, what data are you basing your projections on? And are you going to make an exit before noon on Monday?
Specifically, I did a quick VXF share price analysis of whether an exit Monday or Tuesday (or Wednesday, as scheduled) would make a significant difference. Result? Inconclusive, based on VXF's price patterns for March 2020 and so far in June, either than the net sum will be some shade of a loss regardless.

Macroscopically, my layman's analysis is that market fundamentals have been shot for this month, and technicals are now following suit. If so, then what ammo does the market have left? The jobs report is coming this Thursday--the day before 4th of July holiday.

What factor am I missing in this equation to come to a different conclusion? That is the ultimate question I ask.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by Bubba »

bloobs wrote:
Tomanyiron wrote:Seasonal strategies are having a hard time keeping up with these modern times.
bloobs wrote:Anybody wanna hear my terrifying prediction for the S fund this week?
Sure, what data are you basing your projections on? And are you going to make an exit before noon on Monday?
Specifically, I did a quick VXF share price analysis of whether an exit Monday or Tuesday (or Wednesday, as scheduled) would make a significant difference. Result? Inconclusive, based on VXF's price patterns for March 2020 and so far in June, either than the net sum will be some shade of a loss regardless.

Macroscopically, my layman's analysis is that market fundamentals have been shot for this month, and technicals are now following suit. If so, then what ammo does the market have left? The jobs report is coming this Thursday--the day before 4th of July holiday.

What factor am I missing in this equation to come to a different conclusion? That is the ultimate question I ask.
Typically, July 1 and 2 are huge up days for the market. Afterwards, it's a bit more nuanced. I'll be switching from the S on the 1st or 2nd (I have to double check) and into the C for a while. I wish we had access to the NASDAQ because that one is MUCH better (or at least the DOW) in giving great returns during this period.

I'm thinking that August will be very explosive this year, but everyone I'm reading is thinking this week.

I guess we'll see.

klausvonbg
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon May 23, 2011 8:10 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by klausvonbg »

Bubba
Explosive good or bad?

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by Bubba »

klausvonbg wrote:Bubba
Explosive good or bad?
Good point. I think it'll be a bad month, but as I said, many are projecting that this month will bring us back to 2700 something for the S&P 500.

Who knows, right?

User avatar
harpole
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by harpole »

Interesting.... The balance leader "McLovin" has only 10 IFTs over the last 10 years. None since 2013. Makes me reconsider the daily strategy method....
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

User avatar
mjedlin66
Site Admin
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by mjedlin66 »

harpole wrote:Interesting.... The balance leader "McLovin" has only 10 IFTs over the last 10 years. None since 2013. Makes me reconsider the daily strategy method....
Not to say buy and hold isn't a good strategy. But, going by fantasy balance alone is not a good proxy, because everyone starts with 100,000 fantasy dollars the day they create their account. So obviously a 10+ year old account is going to have seen more growth than a 1 year old account.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

seawatcher
Posts: 99
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:49 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by seawatcher »

mjedlin66 wrote:
harpole wrote:Interesting.... The balance leader "McLovin" has only 10 IFTs over the last 10 years. None since 2013. Makes me reconsider the daily strategy method....
Not to say buy and hold isn't a good strategy. But, going by fantasy balance alone is not a good proxy, because everyone starts with 100,000 fantasy dollars the day they create their account. So obviously a 10+ year old account is going to have seen more growth than a 1 year old account.
Very good point. Thank you. If my logic is correct, it's also not a good idea to just use the leader rankings by Gain %. Some people who have a big loss will reset their fantasy account, then they have gains and look good. I found several fantasy accounts that were reset at the end of March 2020 and their gains look real good now. But if they continued the same fantasy account since January, they probably would not be on the leader board. I keep people on my watchlist who have gains and survived some tough spots. They are smarter or luckier than me.
Good luck with your TSP and retirement plans!

User avatar
harpole
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by harpole »

I follow 4 leaders with consistent gains over the years and also follow 3 TSPcalc strategies. My problem is that I let my emotions override my plan. One strategy in particular (#112617) has been fantastic, but I just can't stop myself from jumping ship early.

When I see 10 year results from a buy and hold leader, it just makes me think if that may be a better option for me.
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: 99 Pending?

Post by jlozano042 »

harpole wrote:I follow 4 leaders with consistent gains over the years and also follow 3 TSPcalc strategies. My problem is that I let my emotions override my plan. One strategy in particular (#112617) has been fantastic, but I just can't stop myself from jumping ship early.

When I see 10 year results from a buy and hold leader, it just makes me think if that may be a better option for me.
I would say if you have 10+ years left before retire, then this is a great option. I have about 15 years left ... and I am sticking with the B&H strategy. Not that the other strategies are not good, just ... not for me. 8-)

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".